Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Latest 10-day raw temperature data for IAH (Houston) from the 6Z GFS. Don't worry about that dip just before New Year's Eve, as it's another cold front that the the GFS is trying to drive south through Houston. The front probably won't make it. I am seeing some signs of what may be a brief pattern change the first week of January, which may mean at least a temporary breakdown in the ridge over the southwest. Cross-Polar flow DOES develop (if you can believe the GFS 2 weeks out) but it directs the cold air to west of Alaska rather than southward. deepening trof in the Gulf of Alaska may pump the ridge right back over the western U.S. after the first week of January. Again, if you can believe the GFS 500mb flow that far out (doubtful).

[kingwood_tx1999]

There seems to be more going against us then there is going for us..seems like what little hope the models give us. It is quickly taken away

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[Cpv17]

There seems to be more going against us then there is going for us..seems like what little hope the models give us. It is quickly taken away

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Don’t look at the operationals. They’re completely useless past 5 days. Look at the ensembles.

[orangeblood]

There seems to be more going against us then there is going for us..seems like what little hope the models give us. It is quickly taken away

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Don’t look at the operationals. They’re completely useless past 5 days. Look at the ensembles.

This stick with the Ensembles in the 8-15 day range. The operationals will be all over the place from run to run. When the extremes anomalies are on the table, particularly on the cold side, I've found the Canadian ENS to be one of the better tools - it did very well for the Feb Outbreak in the 10-15 day range

It's starting off the New Years week with 5-10 F below normal across the entire State and trending colder

[Portastorm]

With both reporting sites showing an average mean monthly temp about 8.5 degrees above normal, Austin is on track to easily record its warmest December in recorded weather history. Based on our forecast to finish out the month, the above normal anomaly likely will increase.

Hope you're happy, Wxman57!

[wxman57]

With both reporting sites showing an average mean monthly temp about 8.5 degrees above normal, Austin is on track to easily record its warmest December in recorded weather history. Based on our forecast to finish out the month, the above normal anomaly likely will increase.

Hope you're happy, Wxman57!

I'd be happier if it wasn't so dang cold! Lows in the 40s the past 3 days is too much. My hands and feet are perpetual ice cubes. Just cannot get warm. Looking forward to the rising temps the next few days with lows in the 60s and highs near 80. I'm ready for winter to end. Weather should be warm enough for biking Thursday to Sunday and likely New Year's weekend, too.

I'll see if I can get you a snowflake or two there in Austin after mid-January. Merry Christmas, Portastorm.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS breaks the wall for Northern Texas in the long range (Developing consistency as well)

[orangeblood]

Major changes occurring in the Central Pacific that could have massive implications for the remainder of Winter and into Spring. Abrupt reversal of 850 wind anomalies that probably puts an end to this La Nina.

Not sure where to go from here (will need to start digging) but most Seasonal Winter Forecasts, that were mainly tied to tropical low frequency forcing, can be thrown in the trash from this point forward!!! Don't believe this La Nina is recovering from this sort of MJO blow

[wxman57]

6z GFS breaks the wall for Northern Texas in the long range (Developing consistency as well)

I have to "drain off" a little Arctic air now and then to prevent it from building up too high behind my wall. The sacrifice by those in north Texas is appreciated.

[Brent]

Ice storm up here on New Years Day on the 12z GFS

It's definitely not as far out as it was

[Iceresistance]

Ice storm up here on New Years Day on the 12z GFS

This is the same storm that showed up on the 6z GFS, except it trended south!

[orangeblood]

Ice storm up here on New Years Day on the 12z GFS

This is the same storm that showed up on the 6z GFS, except it trended south!

It's going to have problems deciphering where the Arctic Boundary will set up this far out...this is really dense cold air that models are notorious for mishandling. The good news, regardless, is that it appears we have a really active pattern setting up to start the New Year.

The Arctic Front Boundary is key but Operationals won't have a clue until we get much closer

[Brent]

Ice storm up here on New Years Day on the 12z GFS

This is the same storm that showed up on the 6z GFS, except it trended south!

It's going to have problems deciphering where the Arctic Boundary will set up this far out...this is really dense cold air that models are notorious for mishandling. The good news, regardless, is that it appears we have a really active pattern setting up to start the New Year.

The Arctic Front Boundary is key but Operationals won't have a clue until we get much closer

I totally agree here. Just to see a storm signal is news lately

[Iceresistance]

Oh come on! Heat Miser's wall is bending but not breaking on the 12z Run as far north as Oklahoma, do you have a multi-layered wall or something?

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is showing Severe Storms possible for Oklahoma & Texas by New Years

[wxman57]

I see a 50 mb pressure difference at 240 hrs between the GFS and the Euro over Lake Superior. GFS has a 1038mb high there, Euro a 988mb low in the same spot. Needless to say, they differ in their opinions of the weather at day 10. Here is the GFS 2-meter temperature forecast for Houston through day 10. It appears to have dropped the front around the 29th-30th.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro is showing Severe Storms possible for Oklahoma & Texas by New Years

I see what you’re getting at for 0z 12/31, but that’s a pretty stout cap to break. Shortwave would probably need to be stronger and dig a little further, but maybe something could happen if it keeps showing up in the models

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is showing Severe Storms possible for Oklahoma & Texas by New Years

I see what you’re getting at for 0z 12/31, but that’s a pretty stout cap to break. Shortwave would probably need to be stronger and dig a little further, but maybe something could happen if it keeps showing up in the models

There are already BIG storms on the 6z 12/31 on the 12z Euro for Oklahoma, possibly Supercellular.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion a little snippet ....

Chance for a White Christmas remains zero. Chance to make someone
jealous of your beach Christmas remains near certain.

[bubba hotep]

Starting to see some signs of wider spread cold show up in the long range in the ensemble data. However, even with that, the 12z EPS doesn't have any members that get DFW below 20F. Even on the coldest looking days for DFW, there are still multi member clusters with highs above 70.