Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

The Oklahoma wall has been broken on New Years on the 18z GFS!

ETA: The Pressure on Heat Misers wall is getting INTENSE! It has breached the Central Texas wall & is now putting pressure on his final wall!

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro is showing Severe Storms possible for Oklahoma & Texas by New Years

I see what you’re getting at for 0z 12/31, but that’s a pretty stout cap to break. Shortwave would probably need to be stronger and dig a little further, but maybe something could happen if it keeps showing up in the models

There are already BIG storms on the 6z 12/31 on the 12z Euro for Oklahoma, possibly Supercellular.

My mistake, I absentmindedly read “GFS” instead of Euro. I haven’t checked the output for Euro though

[cheezyWXguy]

Would be nice to watch the 18z gfs pan out here in ntx. Ways out but fun to look at. If it actually did play out like that, it would be a good setup for disturbances to ride up out of the sw into the area.

[Cpv17]

What’s it going to take to get rid of this ridge?

[Iceresistance]

I forgot something: Is Phase 7 the Arctic Buildup phase?

[harp]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this place this dead. That’s never good during winter time….

[Iceresistance]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this place this dead. That’s never good during winter time….

Well, wait for 1-2 months, Winter is only getting started . . .

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I forgot something: Is Phase 7 the Arctic Buildup phase?

In ways that benefit Texas, somewhat. It favors cold in our source region but the cold has to be there on our side of the pole.

[Texas Snowman]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this place this dead. That’s never good during winter time….

Last winter, we were on page 17 on Christmas Day.

We finished the 2020-21 winter season on page 380.

[Brent]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this place this dead. That’s never good during winter time….

Last winter, we were on page 17 on Christmas Day.

We finished the 2020-21 winter season on page 380.

Yeah December the last few years has not been good. I still don't understand why everyone is freaking out. It's not gonna stay 80 all winter and our best snow climo is still way ahead. Could be worse...we could be in the southeast at least there has been long range cold showing up here

[Ntxw]

Looks like 0z GFS is trying to set up a winter storm around the 2nd. Big leading trough with hanging baja low pumping up moisture.

Change is coming guys!



#1984(heat)-1985(cold)

[harp]

You boys in Texas gotta be loving the 0Z GFS. Now, let's give south La. some love.

[Ntxw]

While of course the caveats per the range but do suggest that IF the cold were to make it, with the gradient clash between cold and hot, it's very likely a zone where winter storm possibilities exist. That's what orangeblood's ensemble posts were hinting at.

[Ntxw]

Say what you will about it but holy Jesus. I know it's lalaland GFS but even for a fantasy map that is extreme. -60F to -70F in NW Canada. That's on the border with continental historic cold. On the opposite end you have some record heat. Talk about a season of extremes.

[Cpv17]

Well if you believe it or not, Rogers Pass in Montana supposedly recorded -70°F in 1954.

But yeah, I don’t think I’ve ever seen temps that cold before on the GFS.

[Ntxw]

Well if you believe it or not, Rogers Pass in Montana supposedly recorded -70°F in 1954.

But yeah, I don’t think I’ve ever seen temps that cold before on the GFS.

-74 is the peak on the model in the Yukon. I think the continental record is -81F in the same region. But even in real time you can see cold building in this region is not a problem this winter. The big semi-permanent Aleutian high is deflecting and not allowing moderating marine layer into Canada. So any pocket of cold from Siberia/Arctic balloons over this region.

[AustinTXResident]

Through the 21st at Austin Camp Mabry, December 2021 has been the warmest December on record. The top 11:
(1)....63.3°...2021
(2)....62.6°...1933
(3)....61.7°...2012
(4)....60.3°...1970
(5)....60.0°...1939
(6)....58.2°...1995 & 1993
(8)....57.9°...1984
(9)....57.6°...1994
(10)..57.5°...2015 & 2014

The actual and GFS forecast highs and lows for the rest of this month (average of the below is 70.5°) are as follows:
12/22...75–49 (actual)
12/23...74–57
12/24...77–60
12/25...83–62
12/26...80–63
12/27...77–64
12/28...78–66
12/29...79–66
12/30...83–65
12/31...83–68

If the GFS forecast is accurate, December 2021 will end with an average temperature of 65.6°. That would be 13.4° warmer than the climate record average and annihilate the current record for warmest December by 6.0°. And December would, by far, have the largest gap between warmest and second-warmest month on record.
59.6°...1933
58.7°...1970
58.4°...1984

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS has a 1058 MB High over Idaho at the end of the run.

The pressure on Heat Misers 5 Walls is getting intense by the day, with 3 of them falling in the 6z run (Canadian Wall, the Oklahoma Wall, & the Red River Wall), with increasing pressure on the Central Texas Wall. (His Final wall is the Houston Wall)

[ThunderSleetDreams]

6z GFS has a 1058 MB High over Idaho at the end of the run.

The pressure on Heat Misers 5 Walls is getting intense by the day, with 3 of them falling in the 6z run (Canadian Wall, the Oklahoma Wall, & the Red River Wall), with increasing pressure on the Central Texas Wall. (His Final wall is the Houston Wall)

I have the trump card on Heat Miser’s SETX wall. I’ll be bringing -20 to -30 degree weather back with me from Montana. Gonna bottle it and unleash it when we land.

[wxman57]

It's always the last few days of the GFS run when the cold air and winter weather reaches Texas. However, THIS time the GFS is right. My wall will hold, again. However, just to be sure, I'm sending a team up there to perform some acoustic testing of the wall in an attempt to identify any small cracks before they lead to a failure.