Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1001 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:18 am

1049 MB High over Wyoming on the 12z GFS, & It's only 1 week out
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1002 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:29 am

Iceresistance wrote:1049 MB High over Wyoming on the 12z GFS, & It's only 1 week out


Poof! It's gone the next day. Good thing I had my workers add a second NW Pacific states diverter as well as the Great Lakes diverter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1003 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:45 am

A HUGE surge of cold air on the 12z GFS not long after New Years, it broke the Oklahoma Wall, the Red River Wall, & the Central Texas Wall, but the Houston Wall still stands.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1004 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:47 am

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:1049 MB High over Wyoming on the 12z GFS, & It's only 1 week out


Poof! It's gone the next day. Good thing I had my workers add a second NW Pacific states diverter as well as the Great Lakes diverter.


I don’t know what you’re on about. The storm isn’t completely gone from existence. The same storm is there but it’s just moved farther north and a little more delayed. The cold is still present and still packing some punch. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1005 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:32 pm

You definitely have to feel a little motivated with the recent runs. Sure 240+ hour fantasy snow charts clearly won't pan out but you do have better delivery of at least some of the cold air! Aleutians ridge becomes more of a GOA ridge. Also would be nice if the SE ridge migrates out in to the Atlantic some.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1006 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:44 pm

I'm expecting mid-80s for Christmas Eve now
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1007 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:05 pm

I just lost Power, my Nana is calling CVEC to figure out why.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1008 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:24 pm

Hello guys just a reminder we are all a community here and welcome all ideas! A couple of reminders that this is a winter thread so the majority of visitors are here to discuss possibilities of cold and snow. Whether we like it or not that's the truth and that's what drives the discussion.

That doesn't mean however you can't enjoy warmth and talk about it either! A well documented heat miser exists within our ranks :lol: and he lets us have it! All thoughts on warmth are welcome too.

Some key notes:
-Discuss the weather rather than the politics of it

-Be friendly

-Gear discussion towards healthy debate; i.e. why a model shows warm, or cold, etc

-Make your point and move on; five posts on it's hot, it's hot, I told you it's hot, it's gonna be hot forever etc is generally frowned upon (the same goes for cold or any other point).

-Use models or forecasts from a respectable source of your choice to build your case.

We generally keep a loose form of moderation here in the winter threads but if it becomes trolling behavior or attacks to on another it will be shut down very quickly.

Enjoy this God-Awful torchmas :layout:
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1009 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:Hello guys just a reminder we are all a community here and welcome all ideas! A couple of reminders that this is a winter thread so the majority of visitors are here to discuss possibilities of cold and snow. Whether we like it or not that's the truth and that's what drives the discussion.

That doesn't mean however you can't enjoy warmth and talk about it either! A well documented heat miser exists within our ranks :lol: and he lets us have it! All thoughts on warmth are welcome too.


I can't imagine of whom you are speaking. True, I am looking forward to 80s for Christmas, but I must remind you again that I was discussing last February's extreme cold 9 days before it hit, advising of a multi-day sub-freezing event. If I really DO see cold and/or winter weather coming, then I'll yell it from the highest mountain (probably the Beltway 8 ship channel bridge). For now, though, be thankful that we don't have major cold coming (like last February). I'll let a little cold air slip through my wall late next month.

:sun: :firedevil: Merry Christmas, all! :firedevil: :sun:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1010 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I just lost Power, my Nana is calling CVEC to figure out why.


Power has been restored
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1011 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Hello guys just a reminder we are all a community here and welcome all ideas! A couple of reminders that this is a winter thread so the majority of visitors are here to discuss possibilities of cold and snow. Whether we like it or not that's the truth and that's what drives the discussion.

That doesn't mean however you can't enjoy warmth and talk about it either! A well documented heat miser exists within our ranks :lol: and he lets us have it! All thoughts on warmth are welcome too.


I can't imagine of whom you are speaking. True, I am looking forward to 80s for Christmas, but I must remind you again that I was discussing last February's extreme cold 9 days before it hit, advising of a multi-day sub-freezing event. If I really DO see cold and/or winter weather coming, then I'll yell it from the highest mountain (probably the Beltway 8 ship channel bridge). For now, though, be thankful that we don't have major cold coming (like last February). I'll let a little cold air slip through my wall late next month.

:sun: :firedevil: Merry Christmas, all! :firedevil: :sun:


If you talk about going to Australia again then we know the arctic is coming :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1012 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:58 pm

18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1013 Postby WinterMax » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February


I saw no such thing on the 18z, fill me in if I'm missing something.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1014 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:27 pm

WinterMax wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February


I saw no such thing on the 18z, fill me in if I'm missing something.


It was setting up the Cold Wave with 1050+ MB Highs, but Heat Miser managed to weaken it.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1015 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:29 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
WinterMax wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February


I saw no such thing on the 18z, fill me in if I'm missing something.


It was setting up the Cold Wave with 1050+ MB Highs, but Heat Miser managed to weaken it.
He did what?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1016 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:37 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
WinterMax wrote:
I saw no such thing on the 18z, fill me in if I'm missing something.


It was setting up the Cold Wave with 1050+ MB Highs, but Heat Miser managed to weaken it.
He did what?


He may have! There was 1050+ MB Highs & it was setting up the cold wave, but it weakened when it was ready to come here.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: RE: Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1017 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
It was setting up the Cold Wave with 1050+ MB Highs, but Heat Miser managed to weaken it.
He did what?


He may have! There was 1050+ MB Highs & it was setting up the cold wave, but it weakened when it was ready to come here.
That's been pretty typical of the runs here lately

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1018 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:49 pm

Brent wrote:If you talk about going to Australia again then we know the arctic is coming :spam:


I have no such plans over the next two weeks. However, I always keep that NASA hypersonic jet ready this time of year just in case I need to depart quickly. By the way, the extended part of the GFS runs (beyond 10 days) does not have my wall data and twin diverters included.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1019 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:If you talk about going to Australia again then we know the arctic is coming :spam:


I have no such plans over the next two weeks. However, I always keep that NASA hypersonic jet ready this time of year just in case I need to depart quickly. By the way, the extended part of the GFS runs (beyond 10 days) does not have my wall data and twin diverters included.


The GEFS does not have it either on any part of the runs because there are too many Ensemble Members for your data! :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1020 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:49 pm

A series of cutters towards the Great Lakes, a ridiculously stale Pacific with that ridge just cycling over and over as the MJO is tangled up with the background state. Need something to shake things up. However, pretty epic winter weather stretch for WCAN and the Mountain West.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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