“Big ones” in 2022

[Shell Mound]

Now that the New Year is about to arrive, this topic becomes somewhat pertinent.

2022’s list of names
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Reasoning
Given that +ENSO is rather unlikely, as well as the fact that the WAM is likely to be a factor once more, I think that another slightly-above-average season is most plausible at this stage. On this basis, along with the recent trend toward relatively lenient standards for classification, my picks are Gaston, Ian, and Martin. (Ian replaced 2010’s Igor and Martin 2016’s Matthew, respectively.) At this point I am reluctant to add a fourth name, as this season may feature more unfavourable background conditions during October/November, unlike the past few seasons. We are likely to see warm neutral ENSO along with a weirdly -PDO and perhaps a neutral PMM.

Tracks of major hurricanes in third year after back-to-back Niñas (1950–2020)


Years: 1956, 1972, 1975, 1985, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018

Based on the composite, the third year following consecutive Niñas tends to favour MH hits on the northeastern Gulf Coast and from the Carolinas northward.

[Hurricane2021]

To me, the candidates to become a major hurricane in 2022 are:

Earl
Hermine
Ian
Lisa
Owen

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hermine
Ian
Fiona
Paul

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man it’s almost been 6 years since one of those names was used already! 6 years go by fast, and I’m young!

[aspen]

I think the large-scale factors that led to the late 2021 NHem shutdown could lead to a slightly delayed start of the 2022 season, so the first significant storm could be a lot earlier in the alphabet than in 2020 and 2021. My guesses are:

Earl
Hermine
Ian
Karl

[Category5Kaiju]

Given that List 2 has had two infamous M storms in the past, I'm going to say that Martin will be a bad one. Ian I think will be bad just because, well, it's an I name. Also, given that there have been 2 past Karls that were major hurricanes with the 2010 version being a destructive Cat 3 that did not get retired for some reason, I have a hunch that Karl will get sweet revenge and become a very powerful Cat 4 or 5 storm that guarantees retirement lol.

If Ian, Karl, and Martin end up being retirement-worthy major hurricanes, then my choices for replacement names are Irving, Kurt, and Maurice.

[Teban54]

Wild take: Extremely late season start, only to lead to Alex getting retired, continuing the streak of Alex being used for interesting, anomalous storms.

[FireRat]

Here's my guess on the more significant 2022 names...
Earl
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Martin
Shary
Tobias

Of these the most devastating might be Hermine, Ian, Martin for the peak season & Tobias for late season. One of these may be a Cat 5 too.

* edit
Alex & Fiona could also be honorary mentions or even big ones along with Earl, if for some reason we get a later start to the season instead. I can see Alex being most noteworthy for being a weird storm, like its predecessors in 2010 & 2016, either for unusual intensity early in the season or for forming super early.

[skyline385]

I think the large-scale factors that led to the late 2021 NHem shutdown could lead to a slightly delayed start of the 2022 season, so the first significant storm could be a lot earlier in the alphabet than in 2020 and 2021. My guesses are:

Earl
Hermine
Ian
Karl

I thought the NHem shutdown was already over seeing how the WPAC resumed in full force the last couple of weeks? I think we will be back at the usual time next year...

[AnnularCane]

Ian and Karl (the I storm is usually a safe bet ). I also kind of want to go with Julia although I kind of doubt there will be three big ones in a row (assuming of course I'm even right about the other two). But maybe I will anyway.

Maybe also Fiona or Gaston.

[DioBrando]

Gaston, Richard, Virginie

[JetFuel_SE]

Idk about big ones, but Colin will just be a few windy rainclouds again.

[MHC Tracking]

For me:
Earl
Ian
Nicole

[Iceresistance]

I don't know, but I think that Ian will break the 'I' curse for once!

[cycloneye]

Fiona - Lisa - Nicole

[zal0phus]

Hermine, Karl, and possibly Paula if we have an active season, all stick out to me. From pure speculation, Hermine feels like something damaging to the Gulf Coast, Karl strikes me as a bad scenario for Florida, and Paula, if we get that far, would perhaps be a Western Caribbean storm.

[AlphaToOmega]

Right now, I would say Danielle (late August/early September) and Ian (late September). Looking at all the factors, 2022 is leaning +ENSO (but that is subject to change) and -AMM (but that is very subject to change).

While climate models tend to have a bias towards -AMM months before hurricane season, the CanSIPS shows a very strong -AMM signal throughout hurricane season, which means it is probable that 2022 will feature a -AMM pattern, albeit one weaker than the one forecasted.

While it is early, there are indications that 2022 could be a +ENSO year. The CanSIPS shows an El Niño (it showed a La Niña last year), and there is currently a +PMM signal in place. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies are strengthening over the Western Pacific and advancing eastward.

With this, it is probably reasonable to assume (at this point, anyways) that 2022 could be a 2018-esque year, one with the lion's share of activity in August and September. In recent years, there has been a "D" curse of sorts (Dennis, Dean, Dorian, and Delta) and an infamous "I" curse.

All of this is very much subject to change, however.

[Hurricaneman]

Alex: forms from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean June 15th makes first landfall on the western tip of Cuba June 17th as a 50mph Ts and second landfall in Pensacola at peak of 65mph June 19th

Bonnie: forms from a frontal boundary off the east coast July 23rd and peaks at 75 mph and nips Nantucket July 26th as a 45 mph storm and becomes post tropical 3 hrs later

Colin: forms in the MDR from a tropical wave August 15 but moves north into cooler water near the CV islands only peaking at 50mph

DANIELLE: forms from a tropical wave 200 miles from Barbados on August 21st and makes landfall in Barbados as a 50mph TS and 3 hrs later in St Lucia as a 60mph TS and blows up to hit Jamaica as a 145mph hurricane on August 23rd turning over western Cuba landfalling as a 125mph hurricane and re emerging as a 75mph hurricane and blowing up to a 125mph hurricane and weakening to 110mph at final landfall near Gulf Shores Alabama August 26

Earl: forms off the coast of Africa August 21 and blows up to 115 mph hurricane August 23rd but recurves at 50w

FIONA: forms from a front off the east coast August 30th and narrowly misses OBX as a 125mph Hurricane and hits SE New England as a 90mph hurricane September 2nd

Gaston: forms from the same front as Fiona August 31 and peaks as a 75mph hurricane the next day making landfall near Halifax as a 50mph TS

Hermine: see 2016

IAN: forms from a tropical wave September 10th and moves just north of the greater Antilles while strengthening to a 185mph hurricane moves through the Florida straits and weakens while doing so due to eyewall replacement cycle but peaks again in the central GOM as a 180mph hurricane but weakens to 125 mph at landfall in Galveston/Houston

Julia: forms in the MDR on September 15th peaks at 80mph due to dry air it falls apart

Karl: forms near Texas but moves inland as a 40mph Ts on September 20

Larry: forms near Bermuda September 28th and makes landfall on Bermuda as a 70mph TS

Martin: forms in the western Caribbean October 1 and makes landfall in Honduras as a 45mph TS

NICOLE: forms in the western Caribbean October 10th and peaks at 165mph before running the Yucatán Channel and makes landfall around Sarasota as a 110mph hurricane

Owen: forms from a non tropical low near Bermuda November 24th and peaks at 75 mph as it moves out into the open atlantic

[Category5Kaiju]

Given that the CSU is predicting 19 named storms (and it looks like my earlier bad storm name guess banked on this season having less storms), I am going to add Paula as a potential guess for a nasty October storm that takes a Wilma or 1921 Tampa hurricane-like path. If I had to choose the replacement name, I'd pick Paige.

[BadLarry95]

Hermine (mid August. Caribbean cruiser. Impacts Hispañola and cuba before a less severe USGC impact)

Karl (early September. Big time impact for the Canadian maritimes)

Nicole (mid September. Western Caribbean and blows up into a cat 5. Yucatán impact before going on to make a final landfall in northern Tamaulipas/South Texas)

Richard (mid October. Northern Caribbean and especially bad for haiti. Moves north and may or may not strike one of the Carolinas as a sprawling but weaker cat 1)

All 4 are “original names” if all 4 happen, the only remaining originals would be BDELPSVW (8 out of 21)