Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, are we getting into a pattern change more favorable for cold or is it another head fake?

More favorable? Not yet. But the pattern isn't horrific like it was. Back in late November and early December I was very pessimistic because the Nina standing wave + EPO was showing no change. We were at risk of a 2011-2012, 2015-2016 type repeat with no shot and shaking up the pattern. Cold was locked up in Alaska everything shot through to Eastern Canada.



But in December the tropical convection began shifting east (and you saw the MJO climb out of the P4-6 standing wave) and with it the Aleutian ridge began. It shifted the cold from Alaska to W-Can a little closer. The Nina standing wave is still resisting it though.

Now we're sitting waiting for the Ridge to go poleward which then takes the cold a little deeper into the US, predicating that the MJO/convection is sloooowly moving east. Much slower than guidance forecasted.

At some point we want the Aleutian trough to show up. Some hints but not there yet. It can kick off an SSW and/or height rises off the west coast and open the door.

So to answer your question, are we getting a pattern change? We have. We're not moving into an unfavorable pattern like we were in November but rather moving out of one. We'll get shots of cold due to source region loaded up, but is it sustainable is the big question that has yet to happen.

FYI I've been out of the ENSO loop for a couple of years now but the strong WPAC standing wave now has a real possibility of pushing the heat pool out there with WWBs. That will increase our odds of shifting into an El Nino for 2022. So the MJO movement has more implications than just winter weather.

[Golf7270]

Ntxw, are we getting into a pattern change more favorable for cold or is it another head fake?

The soi has been interesting as of late also.

[Golf7270]

Ntxw, are we getting into a pattern change more favorable for cold or is it another head fake?

More favorable? Not yet. But the pattern isn't horrific like it was. Back in late November and early December I was very pessimistic because the Nina standing wave + EPO was showing no change. We were at risk of a 2011-2012, 2015-2016 type repeat with no shot and shaking up the pattern. Cold was locked up in Alaska everything shot through to Eastern Canada.

https://i.imgur.com/lQMDXg6.png

But in December the tropical convection began shifting east (and you saw the MJO climb out of the P4-6 standing wave) and with it the Aleutian ridge began. It shifted the cold from Alaska to W-Can a little closer. The Nina standing wave is still resisting it though.

Now we're sitting waiting for the Ridge to go poleward which then takes the cold a little deeper into the US, predicating that the MJO/convection is sloooowly moving east. Much slower than guidance forecasted.

At some point we want the Aleutian trough to show up. Some hints but not there yet. It can kick off an SSW and/or height rises off the west coast and open the door.

So to answer your question, are we getting a pattern change? We have. We're not moving into an unfavorable pattern like we were in November but rather moving out of one. We'll get shots of cold due to source region loaded up, but is it sustainable is the big question that has yet to happen.

FYI I've been out of the ENSO loop for a couple of years now but the strong WPAC standing wave now has a real possibility of pushing the heat pool out there with WWBs. That will increase our odds of shifting into an El Nino for 2022. So the MJO movement has more implications than just winter weather.

We probably still have a ways to go, but we are entering January soon and hopefully we get what's needed to shake up this pattern so we can get colder, instead of transient shots.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at the trends from the Euro for next weekend. It went from much ado about nothing to -20s down the front range at 850mb. Surface high went from non-existent to trending upward. Only 1036mb right now but if it keeps trending up, it's a good air mass. Front range will be cold.

https://i.imgur.com/cTJl7EN.gif

I’ve noticed that the Euro is fairly conservative when it comes to forecasting strength of high pressures.

Euro is notorious for having trouble with dense shallow air.

[Ntxw]

DFW NWS showing highs in mid 40s next Sunday. That’s promising. Maybe we can stop using the A/C by then.

Picked up the lawn Christmas stuff today to cut the grass and weeds. It’s like a bad dream.

If you believe the 18z GFS then they may put in a slight chance of rain/snow at some point 162 hours out.

[Iceresistance]

The MJO is making a run towards Phase 8, but the models lock it back in Phase 7.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small.gif

[gboudx]

DFW NWS showing highs in mid 40s next Sunday. That’s promising. Maybe we can stop using the A/C by then.

Picked up the lawn Christmas stuff today to cut the grass and weeds. It’s like a bad dream.

If you believe the 18z GFS then they may put in a slight chance of rain/snow at some point 162 hours out.

Their long term discussions mentions the possibility but for the red river counties and into Ok. I don’t really care if there’s wintry weather; I just want it to feel like Winter and cool off. I’m not being too picky.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any sign of a big Arctic front. Even in those colder GFS runs (which had a light freeze for SE TX), it just looks like a run of the mill Canadian cold front. I can believe the warmer temps and not the colder temps beyond 7 days because the upper-level flow is not right for extreme cold. The upper air flow indicates a continued progressive, rapid west to east flow, which favors colder air missing us to the northeast. You can say that shallow Arctic air isn't handled well by the models, which is true, but I'm not seeing that in the long-range GFS runs.

If really cold air is going to come down, the GFS won't keep seeing it at 12-15 days out. It'll see it within 10 days then within 7 days with consistency from run to run. Canadian & Euro will back up the GFS if some really cold air is coming down. Until I see that, I'm staying here in Houston. No plans for Australia.

[Ntxw]

Coldest run yet for ICON. Not much precip but highs just above freezing and a couple nights with hard freeze well into the 20s next weekend.

[Cerlin]

Coldest run yet for ICON. Not much precip but highs just above freezing and a couple nights with hard freeze well into the 20s next weekend.

ICON has been really good recently. It never bought into the fantasyland hype this winter and scored really well last winter.

[Ntxw]

0z cmc should be banned .

Unless your expectation is historic cold every winter, it's not a bad cold snap on its own.

[harp]

The CMC continues to have us in the deep freeze.

[Ntxw]

Pretty drastic temp swing next Sunday on Euro. From 70 midday to 20s by evening. Winter wx event north of Red river but ULL features trending more potent with each run and plenty of time left.

[Ntxw]

0z euro for next weekend 10s and 20s for highs in Oklahoma, low to mid 30s in n tx, Houston low 40s. I mean for most winters that's considered pretty good.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll have to start studying things for this weekend. Looks like an abrupt change to winter Saturday night. 70s and storms Saturday to upper 20s and showers Sunday morning. Too early to have confidence in a snow forecast along I-20 corridor though.

[Ntxw]

Good ejection of the vortmax on 6z gfs. Gives North Texas some snow this weekend, probably best run yet.

[wxman57]

It is unfortunate (for me) that I must let a little Canadian air through my wall this week to prevent any buildup that could damage the wall, resulting in an Arctic air dump later next month. There may be a chance that southeast Texas temps could reach the lower 30s next Monday. We haven't even seen a low below 40 so far this month. Let's focus on next weekend's front for now, as the front after that one which may or may not arrive the following weekend is quite uncertain.

[Tireman4]

Finally stepping down, perhaps?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still uncertainty for you guys going into next weekend. The runs show a decent front but they arent very consistent on the dynamics. The high out in the N Pacific is oh so close to the perfect positioning to really bring down some big HP's. Thats the weather i guess.

What I have been looking for and hope for is for a large portion of the high to break off and swirl around the arctic for a bit. Models hint at it, but it has yet to happen in the short term guidance.

Its a good time to notice what has caused the change in the pattern. MJO obviously had a major roll, but seeing how thing change in the pacific first, then change in NA always fascinates me.