Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Yeah I'm not sure what happened but apparently it's our wettest December ever at over 8 inches. This year obviously has been the total opposite way below normal

The 80s especially during mid period of the decade was a very +PDO regime which coincides with an overall wetter times. This year we are amidst a deep -PDO which can account for some of the extensive dry periods since late Spring that will likely continue into 2022.

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Dec 1984   0.48
Nov 1984   0.54
Oct 1984   0.43
Sep 1984   0.18
Aug 1984   0.01

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Nov 2021   -2.71
Oct 2021   -3.15
Sep 2021   -1.99
Aug 2021   -0.92

Austin had below average precipitation during the mid-1980s.

Thanks. Perhaps Austin will see wetter times during this -PDO.

[wxman57]

18z GFS clearly demonstrates that the speed of the storm system is also a factor if we're going to get snow at around New Years

Yeah, it arrives before sunset here in Houston in the 18Z GFS. It was coming in by 3am Sunday in previous runs. Fasts = dry. Canadian ingested some of what the UKMET was smoking, but without the snow output. 20 degrees in Houston Monday?

[AustinTXResident]

The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook (for January 5-11) calls for above normal temperatures for all of Texas except for the northeast panhandle where near-normal temperatures are expected. The southern half of Oklahoma is also progged for near-normal temperatures, and below normal temperatures ate expected for the northern half of Oklahoma.

"The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 25% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 15% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 10, and 10% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement on most features, offset by some model differences in the temperature and precipitation forecast over the eastern CONUS."

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

[AustinTXResident]

18z GFS clearly demonstrates that the speed of the storm system is also a factor if we're going to get snow at around New Years

Yeah, it arrives before sunset here in Houston in the 18Z GFS. It was coming in by 3am Sunday in previous runs. Fasts = dry. Canadian ingested some of what the UKMET was smoking, but without the snow output. 20 degrees in Houston Monday?

The Canadian model is forecasting lows in Austin of 27° Sunday morning, 20° Monday morning, and 27° Tuesday morning. For sure that will verify. All the other models are in a deep, but secret, conspiracy to inflate their temperature forecasts.

[orangeblood]

A few of the Latest GFS Ensemble members holding quite a lot of energy back this weekend….

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS has 1-1.25 inches Mean Snowfall for my area

1/3 to 1 inch in DFW

[Cpv17]

Looks like after this front passes we’ll begin to warm up starting Tuesday afternoon but we could be in for another front by day 9 or 10 which would be around next weekend. That possible front currently intrigues me more than the one we’re about to get.

[TheProfessor]

Been a bit of a rough time for me, lost my grandmother yesterday. I'd definitely take some snow to help cheer me up though. Also helps that I get off forecast shift tomorrow morning so I won't be the one who has to deal with it.

Anyways my thoughts: I'm not ready to jump on board with the GFS yet but the key difference with the past 2 runs is the lead shortwave slowing down and interacting with the main trough more. This allows for prolonged dendrite growth after the cold air arrives here (or could be a nasty ice storm for us if that cold air is shallow). Previous runs got that shortwave way out ahead before any cold air can move through so we were left with rain and then a mess of freezing drizzle. I certainly prefer the former. GFS is usually the more progressive model so it's interesting that it's the one slowing down that lead shortwave a ton. 

Lead shortwave is much more important for me up here than those of y'all in Texas. Best case scenario (for me) would be for the energies to be together and pack one big punch, but if the lead shortwave is timed well with the cold air then I and a few of you south of me could both see snow. I'm liking the slower trends though. Wouldn't mind seeing a prolonged juiced up snowfall.

[HockeyTx82]

Been a bit of a rough time for me, lost my grandmother yesterday. I'd definitely take some snow to help cheer me up though. Also helps that I get off forecast shift tomorrow morning so I won't be the one who has to deal with it.

Anyways my thoughts: I'm not ready to jump on board with the GFS yet but the key difference with the past 2 runs is the lead shortwave slowing down and interacting with the main trough more. This allows for prolonged dendrite growth after the cold air arrives here (or could be a nasty ice storm for us if that cold air is shallow). Previous runs got that shortwave way out ahead before any cold air can move through so we were left with rain and then a mess of freezing drizzle. I certainly prefer the former. GFS is usually the more progressive model so it's interesting that it's the one slowing down that lead shortwave a ton. 

Lead shortwave is much more important for me up here than those of y'all in Texas. Best case scenario (for me) would be for the energies to be together and pack one big punch, but if the lead shortwave is timed well with the cold air then I and a few of you south of me could both see snow. I'm liking the slower trends though. Wouldn't mind seeing a prolonged juiced up snowfall.

Sorry for your loss. My grandfather was a very important part of my life so I feel you on this. Remember the good times and cherish the memories.

[bubba hotep]

[TropicalTundra]

The 12k NAM is almost in range to next weekend. 2 more runs and we'll most likely have a better image on things.

[txtwister78]

A few of the Latest GFS Ensemble members holding quite a lot of energy back this weekend….

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1640714400/1641124800-HFWMkbf3hkU.png

0z GEFS pretty much says not so fast to the 18z. Gut feeling.... system seems too progressive and doesn't dig far enough south, however FWIW 0z ICON slowed a bit from the 18z run and actually generates a small window of a light rain/snow mix from San Angelo to Waco just as enough colder air at the upper levels arrives. Wouldn't be much though other than a curiosity factor if anything. Seems to me that would be the ceiling for this "event" if anything at all for N/NC Texas region.

[cheezyWXguy]

A few of the Latest GFS Ensemble members holding quite a lot of energy back this weekend….

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1640714400/1641124800-HFWMkbf3hkU.png

0z GEFS pretty much says not so fast to the 18z. Gut feeling.... system seems too progressive and doesn't dig far enough south, however FWIW 0z ICON slowed a bit from the 18z run and actually generates a small window of a light rain/snow mix from San Angelo to Waco just as enough colder air at the upper levels arrives. Wouldn't be much though other than a curiosity factor if anything. Seems to me that would be the ceiling for this "event" if anything at all for N/NC Texas region.

Agreed. Without the system cutting off on approach to Texas the chances of any appreciable snow are next to nothing

[txtwister78]

Yes, I know it's 330 hours out but that would get our attention again.

[harp]

It's the trends that should get our attention. Too bad it's all dry. What a waste of cold air....

[orangeblood]

Yes, I know it's 330 hours out but that would get our attention again.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1640736000/1641924000-n3z0QNOu6eg.png

The rubber band effect beginning to show up, January could be the “Polar” opposite of December

Mother lode showing up on GFS

[txtwister78]

Yes, I know it's 330 hours out but that would get our attention again.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1640736000/1641924000-n3z0QNOu6eg.png

The rubber band effect beginning to show up, January could be the “Polar” opposite of December

Mother lode showing up on GFS

We saw this in 85 I believe...not sure if that's an analog for this Nina or not, but December 84 was quite warm if I'm not mistaken in TX and with the MJO pushing into 8 as you pointed out, who knows. It may be a short window (Jan) for something like this to occur.

[orangeblood]

Yes, I know it's 330 hours out but that would get our attention again.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1640736000/1641924000-n3z0QNOu6eg.png

The rubber band effect beginning to show up, January could be the “Polar” opposite of December

Mother lode showing up on GFS

We saw this in 85 I believe...not sure if that's an analog for this Nina or not, but December 84 was quite warm if I'm not mistaken in TX and with the MJO pushing into 8 as you pointed out, who knows. It may be a short window (Jan) for something like this to occur.

Wow!!! What an insane temperature drop behind this front (Noon temperatures as well)….I realize it’s fantasy land but this is where these big events begin showing up

[Cpv17]

Yes, I know it's 330 hours out but that would get our attention again.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1640736000/1641924000-n3z0QNOu6eg.png

The rubber band effect beginning to show up, January could be the “Polar” opposite of December

Mother lode showing up on GFS

Mother Nature is just balancing things out like I always say.

[orangeblood]

Ensembles give a lot more credence to that crazy GFS Op run, the 10 day setup looks textbook for a nasty US Arctic Outbreak. The only caveat being no Greenland Block, however, Nova Scotia works for the central US