Texas Winter 2021-2022

[rwfromkansas]

Trying to focus on weather despite some annoying posts possibly as an assault from another forum, but I didn’t even know it rained. Lol. Got .30 IMBY. I will take it since maybe flurries at best this weekend.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GEFS looks pretty dang good!

[Haris]

18z GEFS has ... 1/3 to 1 inch in DFW

Not sure where you saw that. In any event, now it's saying 0.08 inches.

You don’t know where you see the 18z GEFS?

[Ntxw]

Trying to focus on weather despite some annoying posts possibly as an assault from another forum, but I didn’t even know it rained. Lol. Got .30 IMBY. I will take it since maybe flurries at best this weekend.

I was surprised too! Only 0.15" at the airport so far but anything to help clear the air juniper is running high.

[wxman57]

12Z Monday temps in the four main globals. Canadian is still smoking the good stuff. Hopefully, this is the coldest we see this winter. I kind of suspect it won't be.

[HockeyTx82]

Just checked my new weather station I got for Christmas. A whopping .03 inches of rain today...... better than nothing. The app is great and it's awesome to see trends and such. I like it so far and you can get it at Costco like I did was only $99 vs what the manufacturer charges. I'll be able to report accurate temp, rain, wind speed/direction and so on as we see fronts and freeze lines. I can check anytime since it's online too. So if anyone wants to know the weather report in Ponder just ask.

https://www.lacrossetechnology.com/products/328-47577

[Cpv17]

Well that Euro run was ugly.

[Cpv17]

Just checked my new weather station I got for Christmas. A whopping .03 inches of rain today...... better than nothing. The app is great and it's awesome to see trends and such. I like it so far and you can get it at Costco like I did was only $99 vs what the manufacturer charges. I'll be able to report accurate temp, rain, wind speed/direction and so on as we see fronts and freeze lines. I can check anytime since it's online too. So if anyone wants to know the weather report in Ponder just ask.

https://www.lacrossetechnology.com/products/328-47577

I wonder what’s a better brand between Lacrosse and AcuRite…

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My eyes are already looking at the large block that will develop over Alaska in the mid range. I think models will have a difficult time predicting where a big HP will move from this block. It's not a question as to if a big HP will form from this, but where it will go. Jan 5-10 could be interesting.

[wxman57]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

[harp]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

I thought you would be in your way to repair the wall.

[Ntxw]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

I call foul on this sir. I hope you run 2-3 degrees colder Sun-Mon and need some more extra blankets!

[Ntxw]

My eyes are already looking at the large block that will develop over Alaska in the mid range. I think models will have a difficult time predicting where a big HP will move from this block. It's not a question as to if a big HP will form from this, but where it will go. Jan 5-10 could be interesting.

The Euro as cpv17 mention is one way to go the wrong route for immediate results. GFS is the route you go for a better delivery.

[drred4]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

first time that i can remember having to turn my AC on in December. I may have did that once ever before. Now three times this year

lowest temps here this December I had were 29.2 and 32. Would have to look at my Weather station to find the dates for those.

[harp]

Wasn’t the Euro the one that poo poo’d last February’s event?

[Brent]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

first time that i can remember having to turn my AC on in December. I may have did that once ever before. Now three times this year

lowest temps here this December I had were 29.2 and 32. Would have to look at my Weather station to find the dates for those.

Yeah even up here our coldest is 26. Average is 29 so yeah not remotely impressive at all. A/C hasn't run as much but there's still been a couple times this month I had to turn it on

In any case gonna blow it away Sunday morning. Still wondering if we can get something frozen before the precip ends

[vbhoutex]

This is SE TX centric from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Strong cold front Saturday (NYD) will likely bring freezing temperatures to the region Sunday and Monday mornings.

Through the end of December the warmth and humidity will remain in place with additional record highs likely to fall. It is almost certain that December will end as the warmest ever at all of the SE TX climate sites. Thus far this December there have been some 8900 high temperature records across the US and around 400 low temperature records. The high temperature of 94 at Rio Grande City Tx on Christmas Day surpassed the 92 at McAllen TX from 12.25.1964 to become the hottest temperature ever recorded in the US (outside of Hawaii) on Christmas Day. On December 26, Kodiak, AK reached 65 degrees beating its daily high temperature record of 45 degrees by 20 degrees. This also set a monthly record high temperature for the state of AK and would also set monthly high temperature records for Nov, Jan, Feb, and Mar also. The intensity and duration of the warmth this fall/early winter has been unprecedented in modern records and over such a large spatial extent.

With onshore flow firmly in place over the region, additional records are likely through Friday and maybe Saturday, however a strong Canadian cold front will be sweeping down the plains and across TX on Saturday. Upstream air mass is very cold and dense with modified arctic air of MT and ND this morning and some of this air will surge southward down the plains. Air mass will modify on its southward movement with lack of snow cover across the plains, but a strong front is likely. Given the gravity of the incoming air mass will go with the faster and coldest guidance as these very cold air masses tend to come southward faster than the global models suggest. Front will reach SE TX mid to late afternoon on Saturday and plow off the coast by mid evening. Temperatures will fall a good 25-30 degrees with the frontal passage from the 70’s into the 40’s within a few hours with strong north winds. Freeze line will advance quickly southward on Saturday night/early Sunday and an advective freeze is likely for areas along and north of I-10 on Sunday morning. Wind chills will bottom out in the 10’s and 20’s Sunday morning with cold air temperatures and strong winds….it will be a shock given the recent warmth.

Cold high pressure slides to the NE on Sunday and 850mb temperature only support high temperatures in the mid 40’s with continued cold air advection from the NNE. With winds weakening and skies clear on Sunday night, the coldest night of the winter season will be on tap with likely freeze over much of the area, except the urban heat core (inside the Beltway and the coastal beaches). May see mid and upper 20’s north and west of Houston, although just how cold is still unclear.

High pressure shifts east late Monday and winds come back around off the Gulf and the warm up begins after about 48 hours of cold conditions.

Freeze warnings will likely be required for much of the area Sunday and Monday given this will be the areas first freeze of the season. Sensitive vegetation, pets, ect will need some protective measures, but pipes should be fine, although outdoor sprinkler systems should be protected, shut off, and drained.

[TropicalTundra]

Wasn’t the Euro the one that poo poo’d last February’s event?

Yep. It was showing above freezing temps while it was already negative temperatures outside. It has a really strong warm bias.

[bubba hotep]

Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

[TheProfessor]

18z NAM is almost too juiced up for me. Have to deal with rain and freezing rain at 12z tomorrow when previous model runs had us well below freezing by then. Orientation of the trough makes me more concerned about cold air undercutting a warm nose at the surface than warm air advection winning out (whereas if this were a negatively tilted system that would be a big worry.). I think someone in Kansas is gonna get dumped on, where, I don't know. Thankfully I'm off forecast shift tomorrow morning and I have a long weekend, so I'll get to enjoy whatever we get. 

Edit: I tell ya what tho I'll take the NAM's 0.8" QPF and run with it. We're about to record our driest December ever if it doesn't get ruined before Midnight Friday.