Texas Winter 2021-2022

[orangeblood]

Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png

Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO

[gboudx]

Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png

I have no idea what that is showing, but keep us posted.

[Tireman4]

Very progressive pattern (fast west to east movement) will continue for the next couple of weeks. I notice that the west to east jet core over the central U.S. hit 200 kts yesterday. Smokin'! Not looking forward to Saturday night's front. I'll be spending Sunday under my electric blanket with a pillow-sized heating pad on my back, trying to keep my extremities from freezing.

Good news for you guys up north is that the 12Z GFS has a patch of winter weather not far west of D-FW at day 15...

Shall we send 15 portable kerosene heaters to ya?

[Tireman4]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

Sir, stop. Just stop. You had the Summer of 2011. Lol

[Portastorm]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

Sir, stop. Just stop. You had the Summer of 2011. Lol

How many times have I told you not to reference that year?!

[Tireman4]

Exciting news! We just tied our record high of 81 for today. Maybe we can hit 82-83!

Sir, stop. Just stop. You had the Summer of 2011. Lol

How many times have I told you not to reference that year?!

I am sorry sir. 1000 apologies. Go Browns and Guardians!

[HockeyTx82]

Just checked my new weather station I got for Christmas. A whopping .03 inches of rain today...... better than nothing. The app is great and it's awesome to see trends and such. I like it so far and you can get it at Costco like I did was only $99 vs what the manufacturer charges. I'll be able to report accurate temp, rain, wind speed/direction and so on as we see fronts and freeze lines. I can check anytime since it's online too. So if anyone wants to know the weather report in Ponder just ask.

https://www.lacrossetechnology.com/products/328-47577

I wonder what’s a better brand between Lacrosse and AcuRite…

Not sure, but I'm sure someone might be able to offer some opinion on it. Price was right, that's what I got it.

[rwfromkansas]

Just checked my new weather station I got for Christmas. A whopping .03 inches of rain today...... better than nothing. The app is great and it's awesome to see trends and such. I like it so far and you can get it at Costco like I did was only $99 vs what the manufacturer charges. I'll be able to report accurate temp, rain, wind speed/direction and so on as we see fronts and freeze lines. I can check anytime since it's online too. So if anyone wants to know the weather report in Ponder just ask.

https://www.lacrossetechnology.com/products/328-47577

I wonder what’s a better brand between Lacrosse and AcuRite…

Not sure, but I'm sure someone might be able to offer some opinion on it. Price was right, that's what I got it.

I love my Ambient. But, I wish I could get a Davis. Lol.

[Ntxw]

Model volatility is real run to run and model to model. Could it be signaling the guidance is gradually loosening grip on the old pattern? Periods of change tends to produce swings in guidance.

One thing is for sure they aren't as persistent with heat in the medium to long range as they were this past month.

[Portastorm]

Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

The Texas Heat Miser (wxman57) continues his firm grip on the theromstat.

[TheProfessor]

Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

The Texas Heat Miser (wxman57) continues his firm grip on the theromstat.

It's coming. We're finally going to unleash some of that cold air in Canada. If I can get some snow cover here Wichita may go below 0 Saturday night/Sunday morning.

[bubba hotep]

Very progressive pattern (fast west to east movement) will continue for the next couple of weeks. I notice that the west to east jet core over the central U.S. hit 200 kts yesterday. Smokin'! Not looking forward to Saturday night's front. I'll be spending Sunday under my electric blanket with a pillow-sized heating pad on my back, trying to keep my extremities from freezing.

Good news for you guys up north is that the 12Z GFS has a patch of winter weather not far west of D-FW at day 15...

Yep. The GFS runs that brought a winter storm to N. Texas tried to slow down the flow but that's not going to happen. We can thank our old friend the TPV for that and how the GFS fumbled it for the phantom storm runs. For a few runs, the GFS tried to sling a lobe of the TPV out into the NW Atlantic, that allowed for heights to rise behind that lobe allowing the patter over ECAN & NE US to amplify just enough to slow things down. That kink in the flow upstream was just enough to allow our phantom storm to wrap up downstream. However, the TPV has stayed compact and flow is just racing from the SW out into the NW Atlantic, making it nearly impossible for a shortwave coming out of the SW to amplify into an I20 winter storm.

[Ntxw]

I think we are going to see a faster passage of the front this weekend. There's been subtle timing adjustments from the various models. For the northern half of the state it's going to be more of a New Year's day front event. Some really wild temperature swings in the 70s and then by evening freezing and below. It'll be nice to watch dense cold air try to beat the forecast/models again .

[Portastorm]

Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

The Texas Heat Miser (wxman57) continues his firm grip on the theromstat.

Update. We did set new records at the airport (83) and Camp Mabry (82).

[Cerlin]

Finally landed in Los Angeles today. It’s 51 degrees and raining currently. Doesn’t really feel like California but it’s a lot better than the record heat.

[Iceresistance]

The rain this morning was nice, picked up .1 inch

[Yukon Cornelius]

I think we are going to see a faster passage of the front this weekend. There's been subtle timing adjustments from the various models. For the northern half of the state it's going to be more of a New Year's day front event. Some really wild temperature swings in the 70s and then by evening freezing and below. It'll be nice to watch dense cold air try to beat the forecast/models again .

I don’t think I can ever remember a front that came in “on time” or late. Aren’t they usually always early to way early compared to models or forecasts?

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has a high of 20°F on New Years Day with an 40% chance of snow to start 2022

(The 80% is for Severe Storms overnight)

[TheProfessor]

I think we are going to see a faster passage of the front this weekend. There's been subtle timing adjustments from the various models. For the northern half of the state it's going to be more of a New Year's day front event. Some really wild temperature swings in the 70s and then by evening freezing and below. It'll be nice to watch dense cold air try to beat the forecast/models again .

This is something I'm worried about. Models slowed down the speed of cold some today, which I think is the wrong direction. With the trough so positively tilted I'm less concerned about warm air advection (tho we will get some from the lead shortwave). This seems like a classic shallow cold air racing out ahead of the colder air aloft and you see a faster changeover to freezing rain or sleet. I do think we have a good shot at snow here in Wichita as long as the lead shortwave continues to be slower and doesn't race out ahead like the models had before, but I'm getting concerned about the ice potential in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma as well.

[Iceresistance]

It's coming. We're finally going to unleash some of that cold air in Canada. If I can get some snow cover here Wichita may go below 0 Saturday night/Sunday morning.

There was snow in Kansas today, especially along I-70