Texas Winter 2021-2022

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TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1421 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:09 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I think we are going to see a faster passage of the front this weekend. There's been subtle timing adjustments from the various models. For the northern half of the state it's going to be more of a New Year's day front event. Some really wild temperature swings in the 70s and then by evening freezing and below. It'll be nice to watch dense cold air try to beat the forecast/models again :D.

I don’t think I can ever remember a front that came in “on time” or late. Aren’t they usually always early to way early compared to models or forecasts?


It can happen with late spring or early fall fronts where warm air can win out, at least temporarily. This time of year, with the cold that's in place already in Canada (It would be a different story if we weren't tapping into a source region 20 to 30 degrees celsius below their normal) it's very likely the front will be faster.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1422 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:It's coming. We're finally going to unleash some of that cold air in Canada. If I can get some snow cover here Wichita may go below 0 Saturday night/Sunday morning.



There was snow in Kansas today, especially along I-70


Yep, but that's going to melt. We'll see temperatures moderate here as heights rise out ahead of this weekend's system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1423 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:18 pm

Iceresistance wrote:KFOR has a high of 20°F on New Years Day with an 40% chance of snow to start 2022

(The 80% is for Severe Storms overnight)

I’ve noticed KFOR tends to be very aggressive compared to other stations with their forecasts. They could very well end up being right this time, but I’ve noticed several times they’ve jumped the gun on cold or precipitation only for it to not pan out because it’s too far out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1424 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:29 pm

18z GEFS trended wetter and snowier for Wichita. Hoping this trend continues. Especially with the QPF. We need the rain.

Edit: SREF has a few warm outliers, but it trended up with QPF and snow as well. 
Last edited by TheProfessor on Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1425 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:32 pm

TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS trended wetter and snowier for Wichita. Hoping this trend continues. Especially with the QPF. We need the rain.


2-4 inches of snow for Wichita, Kansas

I'm expecting up to .5 inch at best now
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1426 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:36 pm

Jan 2 looks good for y’all. On New Years snow and on the second very cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1427 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:20 pm

TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS trended wetter and snowier for Wichita. Hoping this trend continues. Especially with the QPF. We need the rain.

Edit: SREF has a few warm outliers, but it trended up with QPF and snow as well. 


The 18z GEFS looks really good in general. The cold signal is definitely there. I’m loving the blocking going on towards the end of the run in the GOA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1428 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:23 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS trended wetter and snowier for Wichita. Hoping this trend continues. Especially with the QPF. We need the rain.

Edit: SREF has a few warm outliers, but it trended up with QPF and snow as well. 


The 18z GEFS looks really good in general. The cold signal is definitely there. I’m loving the blocking going on towards the end of the run in the GOA.


Also, the Texas Ridge is gone as well, it appears that the PNA could become more Neutral by Mid-January
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1429 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:46 pm

Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1430 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:50 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


I would issue a Winter Storm Watch soon for Southern & Eastern Kansas if I were you.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1431 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS trended wetter and snowier for Wichita. Hoping this trend continues. Especially with the QPF. We need the rain.

Edit: SREF has a few warm outliers, but it trended up with QPF and snow as well. 


The 18z GEFS looks really good in general. The cold signal is definitely there. I’m loving the blocking going on towards the end of the run in the GOA.


Also, the Texas Ridge is gone as well, it appears that the PNA could become more Neutral by Mid-January


Only thing that’s really missing is the Greenland block.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1432 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:54 pm

Even down here :double: :cold: .

Given the strength of
the cold front, and likelihood that a strong jet stream aloft will
be running ahead of the main trough axis, it seems likely that
a swath of light snow could run across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Saturday evening.

I find it interesting they say evening I'm kind of expecting the precip to end like by lunch and just turn cold but maybe there's a second wave still
Last edited by Brent on Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1433 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:54 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


I would issue a Winter Storm Watch soon for Southern & Eastern Kansas if I were you.



Gotta collaborate that, but I'm sure it will get brought up tonight. The ice showing up more makes it easier to do that though. I do want to see more consistency. If the Euro caves to the GFS and CMC I'm sure I'll get a call from WPC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1434 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:55 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.

On that note, not to get anyone’s hopes up, but that nam run does seem to depict some flurries in north Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1435 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:10 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


Much more robust with energy rounding the base of the trough as well….although probably on the lighter side, a widespread area of Texas could see wintry precip late Saturday/early Sunday. A few Ens members back up this solution

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1436 Postby harp » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:13 pm

orangeblood wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


Much more robust with energy rounding the base of the trough as well….although probably on the lighter side, a widespread area of Texas could see wintry precip late Saturday/early Sunday. A few Ens members back up this solution. Any chance for Louisiana?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/vort500_z500/1640822400/1641114000-hWe8eKx9YKY.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1437 Postby harp » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:14 pm

orangeblood wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


Much more robust with energy rounding the base of the trough as well….although probably on the lighter side, a widespread area of Texas could see wintry precip late Saturday/early Sunday. A few Ens members back up this solution

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/vort500_z500/1640822400/1641114000-hWe8eKx9YKY.png

Any chance for Louisiana?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1438 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:15 pm

harp wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


Much more robust with energy rounding the base of the trough as well….although probably on the lighter side, a widespread area of Texas could see wintry precip late Saturday/early Sunday. A few Ens members back up this solution. Any chance for Louisiana?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/vort500_z500/1640822400/1641114000-hWe8eKx9YKY.png


Yes, it looks like it’s on the table…probably a better chance than North Texas, more moisture to work with
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1439 Postby harp » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:16 pm

Thank you for your reply.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1440 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:22 pm

orangeblood wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


Much more robust with energy rounding the base of the trough as well….although probably on the lighter side, a widespread area of Texas could see wintry precip late Saturday/early Sunday. A few Ens members back up this solution

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/vort500_z500/1640822400/1641114000-hWe8eKx9YKY.png


It's all about that lead shortwave for Wichita as that's going to give us the bulk of our Precip. That's why I need it slower and closer to the trough so that it times with the cold air. We may get some light to moderate snow with the main energy but it won't be much QPF. We may make that up with ratios tho.
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