2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Shell Mound]

Just in time for New Year’s Eve, I’ve decided to “lighten the load” for cycloneye et al. and start the annual thread. (Links were copied from here.)

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /nao.shtml

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_tropatl.png

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_nwel_current.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_tropatl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_change_natl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_change_tropatl.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/natlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrglob.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/eatlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/carssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/gomssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... plit&time=

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/13/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/GEOCOLOR/1200x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/13/600x600.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/13/1000x1000.jpg

ECMWF MSLP Updates

[cycloneye]

No problem at all as this topic is not mine exclusively.

FYI= There is a new link for the ECMWF MLSP charts.

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

[CyclonicFury]

The big question this early, as usual, is whether or not we see El Niño development. It's a bit more likely to have an El Niño follow a second year Niña than a first year Niña, but right now neutral is probably slightly favored, at least for ASO. For El Niño to have a significant effect on the entire hurricane season, it would need to develop in summer rather than fall.

Atlantic hurricane seasons that follow second year La Niñas historically have not been as hyperactive as La Niña years. In some cases, they have even been El Niños. It is possible to get a three year La Niña (like 2000), but this is not very common. Right now, my "most likely" scenario for 2022 is a season with warm-neutral ENSO, fewer major hurricanes than 2020 and 2021, and more of a subtropics focus than the last two years with potentially less intense activity in the deep tropics.

Atlantic hurricane seasons following second-year La Niña events since the active era began in 1995:
2000: 15-8-3, 119 ACE (-0.5C ASO ONI)
2009: 9-3-2, 53 ACE (+0.7C ASO ONI)
2012: 19-10-2, 133 ACE (+0.3C ASO ONI)
2018: 15-8-2, 129 ACE (+0.5C ASO ONI)
Average: 14.5-7.25-2.25, 108.5 ACE

[Category5Kaiju]

I'll just leave these here for now, but I generally have a sense that for this season we may be dealing with some form of neutral. Whether it's warm or cool is still unknown, but I feel like the warming is not as fast and intense enough for a bona fide El Nino to happen, and based on historical trends I'm simply unsure if we will get a third year La Nina as such is extremely rare.









The one alarming thing I have noticed consistently pop up in back to back runs is the Cansip's idea of striking, basin-wide above average sst anomalies in the Atlantic during the ASO part of 2022. While it is almost certainly too early to take this seriously, I'd have to imagine that having a very warm Atlantic during the heart of hurricane season and a lack of El Nino cannot be a good thing.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is very little useful data at this stage, but the data that is available suggests that 2022 might be a warm-neutral/El Nino year.




The weakening of the -PDO is certainly interesting, however. A warming PDO could be a sign of a +ENSO this season.

[SFLcane]

For all our sake let’s hope this changes!

[Category5Kaiju]

For all our sake let’s hope this changes!

https://i.postimg.cc/TPyVN9fm/4-C2-FE8-A8-DC6-A-4-A0-A-9482-C5-E988197-D73.png

Looks like that warmer than average West Atlantic in October and November of last year that failed to fuel any systems passing over is really eager to accumulate. Have no idea if it'll last throughout the months ahead, but there's this as well:



If that's the case, assuming no El Nino forms (let alone us entering a cool neutral state or something like that)...we may be having a totally different sst anomalies discussion compared to earlier last year.

[AlphaToOmega]

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

[Kingarabian]

That's a cool PDO on the Canadian + a cold Nino 1+2. Not entirely a favorable EPAC setup as well.

[cycloneye]

Some dont buy it.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1477685686128070662

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv3xY0eI6XU

Interesting and very informative video by Mark as always, first of 2022 out! Very interesting to see how the CFV2 seems to be trending toward a more cool neutral pattern by the heart of hurricane season (even on the brink of -0.5 C). I think the bottomline is that while a Nino region warm-up is definitely still expected, there may not be enough forcing that will allow a true El Nino to form by the end of this year. Oh yeah, and assuming the Atlantic is still warm by ASO...we *may* be in for yet ANOTHER active season.

[zzh]

Shell Mound, I can't see the pictures, they are just links.

[tolakram]

Shell Mound, I can't see the pictures, they are just links.

They are links to the current conditions, sources for when you want to see the latest.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.

The combination of a -AMM/+PMM/-PDO and warm neutral ENSO could also lead to a situation in which overall activity and ACE end up near long-term averages but storms develop and intensify close to the CONUS. After all, both 2012 and 2018 featured such near-shore intensifiers as Isaac, Sandy, and Michael. Seasons that feature a warm subtropics tend to feature less activity in the deep tropics but more “homegrown” development in the Gulf or along the East Coast. During strong +AMM (-AMM) cycles storms actually tend to weaken (strengthen) as they near the CONUS, owing to stronger (weaker) shear in the subtropics vs. deep tropics. In 2022 I wouldn’t preclude a storm like, say, the 1934 Morro Castle hurricane, Carol/Edna (1954), Eloise (1975), Diana (1984), Elena (1985), Bob (1991), or last year’s Ida. The past several seasons have actually generated a number of near-shore intensifiers, including such storms as Barry and Dorian (2019), as well as Hannah, Isaac, Laura, and Sally (2020).

[AlphaToOmega]

It seems that four variables will tell the story of this season: Niño 3.4 SSTAs, TNA SSTAs, AMM, and Atlantic Niño SSTAs. In short, the Niño 3.4 SSTAs will indicate the patterns of rising air between the Atlantic and the Pacific; the TNA will indicate the raw SSTAs in the MDR; the AMM will indicate rising air patterns within the Atlantic; the Atlantic Niño will indicate the latitude of the ITCZ and the dependance on the MDR.

1. Higher Niño 3.4 SSTA means less overall activity in the late season'.
2. Higher TNA SSTA means more activity in the deep tropics.
3. Higher AMM means a greater emphasis towards tropical activity as opposed to subtropical activity.
4. Higher Atlantic Niño SSTA means a greater emphasis towards MDR activity and less activity in the deep tropics in the late season.

[SFLcane]

Found this a pretty interesting. Another active season with neutral ENSO does make sense potentially.

https://youtu.be/GUZGP3zGlyA

[Category5Kaiju]

I am personally extremely curious to see if this season continues the impressive "strongest storm of the season being at least a high end Cat 4 with 155 mph 1-min sustained winds" streak since 2015, let alone feature a bona fide, undoubtful Category 5 hurricane. We're arguably in some uncharted territory here as no other recorded historical times have had at least 7 consecutive years with the strongest storm of the season being a near-Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.postimg.cc/26hxSKgP/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb3BLC0t/cansips-ssta-noice-global-9.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0xf1mrR/tcm-Ls0-Hs-HG.png

Above the CanSIPS forecasts for September 2021 and 2022 are shown, as well as the actual SSTA map for September 2021. The CanSIPS forecast generally verified quite well; it saw the -ENSO, the -PDO, the -IOD, and the +AMO. It also saw the +AMM pattern. It did underestimate SSTAs in the North Atlantic but not by much. It also did not foresee any Atlantic Nino, which is something to consider.

The current CanSIPS forecasts has something entirely different. It forecasts a neutral IOD, a +ENSO, a +PDO, and a -AMM. It also forecasts the lack of an Atlantic Nino and strongly negative SSTAs in the North Atlantic. It is too early to tell whether this holds, but as of January 2022, this is how the peak of hurricane season looks; this season could be significantly less active than previous seasons.

Above-average SSTs also extend well into the subtropics on that CanSIPS run, despite a warm ENSO. Perhaps that could lead to a season like 2012 or 2018 with enhanced activity north of 20N, such as all the subtropical systems in 2018 and C3 Michael in 2012. The developing +ENSO could also potentially result in many deep tropic struggle-storms like in 2012.

The combination of a -AMM/+PMM/-PDO and warm neutral ENSO could also lead to a situation in which overall activity and ACE end up near long-term averages but storms develop and intensify close to the CONUS. After all, both 2012 and 2018 featured such near-shore intensifiers as Isaac, Sandy, and Michael. Seasons that feature a warm subtropics tend to feature less activity in the deep tropics but more “homegrown” development in the Gulf or along the East Coast. During strong +AMM (-AMM) cycles storms actually tend to weaken (strengthen) as they near the CONUS, owing to stronger (weaker) shear in the subtropics vs. deep tropics. In 2022 I wouldn’t preclude a storm like, say, the 1934 Morro Castle hurricane, Carol/Edna (1954), Eloise (1975), Diana (1984), Elena (1985), Bob (1991), or last year’s Ida. The past several seasons have actually generated a number of near-shore intensifiers, including such storms as Barry and Dorian (2019), as well as Hannah, Isaac, Laura, and Sally (2020).

2018 was definitely +AMM and related teleconnections are the only reason why the season was remotely active.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens going forward this year, all I will say is that so far, the Atlantic's +sst anomalies have really hit the ground running.