Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

The NAM doesn't look too bad for Sunday even has some flakes in DFW and actually has enough to accumulate up here

[gpsnowman]

The NAM doesn't look too bad for Sunday even has some flakes in DFW and actually has enough to accumulate up here

https://i.ibb.co/mGWsgHP/namconus-asnow-scus-26.png

If I get to see some flurries out of this, I'll consider it a win. Regardless, that 24 or so degrees on Sunday morning will be a major shock to our warm December bodies.

[Brent]

The NAM doesn't look too bad for Sunday even has some flakes in DFW and actually has enough to accumulate up here

https://i.ibb.co/mGWsgHP/namconus-asnow-scus-26.png

If I get to see some flurries out of this, I'll consider it a win. Regardless, that 24 or so degrees on Sunday morning will be a major shock to our warm December bodies.

Yeah snow or not it's gonna be a shock. Our coldest low up here is only 26 so far. We'll probably be at that Saturday afternoon with strong winds and it's just gonna keep getting worse

WeatherBug app has snow for me after 9pm Saturday

[TheProfessor]

Really looking like an ice (zr/sleet) event here and in southern Kansas, which may end up being more impactful. Just about all the models are in the 0.3-0.6" QPF range (except the 0z/12z cycle Euro runs) for us, which could be ugly with most of that falling as frozen with the temperatures we will be seeing by day time Saturday. 18z NAM does throw a snow bone and of course the GFS has been nearly all snow, not quite sure about that right now. I do think the cold air arrives earlier here, but it's going to be shallow at first. This was one of the reasons we went with a watch last night (and the fact that it's going to be on a holiday).

[Iceresistance]

The NAM doesn't look too bad for Sunday even has some flakes in DFW and actually has enough to accumulate up here

https://i.ibb.co/mGWsgHP/namconus-asnow-scus-26.png

If I get to see some flurries out of this, I'll consider it a win. Regardless, that 24 or so degrees on Sunday morning will be a major shock to our warm December bodies.

Yeah snow or not it's gonna be a shock. Our coldest low up here is only 26 so far. We'll probably be at that Saturday afternoon with strong winds and it's just gonna keep getting worse

WeatherBug app has snow for me after 9pm Saturday

I managed to fall into the Teens, my coldest low so far is 15, that might change by New Years

[TheProfessor]

If I get to see some flurries out of this, I'll consider it a win. Regardless, that 24 or so degrees on Sunday morning will be a major shock to our warm December bodies.

Yeah snow or not it's gonna be a shock. Our coldest low up here is only 26 so far. We'll probably be at that Saturday afternoon with strong winds and it's just gonna keep getting worse

WeatherBug app has snow for me after 9pm Saturday

I managed to fall into the Teens, my coldest low so far is 15, that might change by New Years

We radiated out a couple of Saturdays ago and got down to 9 in Wichita lol. Even with the heat we managed to get a single digit low.

[wxman57]

We got down to 40 once in Houston.

[TheProfessor]

21z RAP is incredibly juicy with this storm (15z run was as well but was more ice) 4" of snow here with probably 1-2" of sleet. Big time snows up in north-central Kansas (like 20"). Hoping for some last minute shifts south (maybe with the faster cold air??) would give us big snow here and get the Oklahoma peeps involved lol. We'll see, right now ice is looking to be in my future. For as much as I hate it, we absolutely need the precipitation here and I'd honestly take a bad ice storm just to help with the drought.

[Iceresistance]

21z RAP is incredibly juicy with this storm (15z run was as well but was more ice) 4" of snow here with probably 1-2" of sleet. Big time snows up in north-central Kansas (like 20"). Hoping for some last minute shifts south (maybe with the faster cold air??) would give us big snow here and get the Oklahoma peeps involved lol. We'll see, right now ice is looking to be in my future. For as much as I hate it, we absolutely need the precipitation here and I'd honestly take a bad ice storm just to help with the drought.

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

[TheProfessor]

21z RAP is incredibly juicy with this storm (15z run was as well but was more ice) 4" of snow here with probably 1-2" of sleet. Big time snows up in north-central Kansas (like 20"). Hoping for some last minute shifts south (maybe with the faster cold air??) would give us big snow here and get the Oklahoma peeps involved lol. We'll see, right now ice is looking to be in my future. For as much as I hate it, we absolutely need the precipitation here and I'd honestly take a bad ice storm just to help with the drought.

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

[Iceresistance]

21z RAP is incredibly juicy with this storm (15z run was as well but was more ice) 4" of snow here with probably 1-2" of sleet. Big time snows up in north-central Kansas (like 20"). Hoping for some last minute shifts south (maybe with the faster cold air??) would give us big snow here and get the Oklahoma peeps involved lol. We'll see, right now ice is looking to be in my future. For as much as I hate it, we absolutely need the precipitation here and I'd honestly take a bad ice storm just to help with the drought.

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

If the Secondary system has a lot more energy than expected (And if that energy holds for a longer period of time), we could be in the Jackpot for snow.


(And also, for some reason, my area is usually the Jackpot for snow totals as demonstrated last Winter)

[TropicalTundra]

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

If the Secondary system has a lot more energy than expected (And if that energy holds for a longer period of time), we could be in the Jackpot for snow.


(And also, for some reason, my area is usually the Jackpot for snow totals as demonstrated last Winter)

The secondary storm is going to be almost entirely dependent on if it can reach the gulf in time. It will have a pressure system behind it however it’s going to have to fight very dry air. If it can pick up moisture from the gulf we could maybe see some more snow for Texas.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS has a very strong signal for another round of very cold air the week after this one (First Mentioned on WX Infinity)

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS has a very strong signal for another round of very cold air the week after this one (First Mentioned on WX Infinity)

12z CMCE has a even stronger signal for this with possibly some snow action as far south as Southern Oklahoma at the same timeframe

[Brent]

21z RAP is incredibly juicy with this storm (15z run was as well but was more ice) 4" of snow here with probably 1-2" of sleet. Big time snows up in north-central Kansas (like 20"). Hoping for some last minute shifts south (maybe with the faster cold air??) would give us big snow here and get the Oklahoma peeps involved lol. We'll see, right now ice is looking to be in my future. For as much as I hate it, we absolutely need the precipitation here and I'd honestly take a bad ice storm just to help with the drought.

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

Yeah I'm not expecting anything from the initial plunge I'm guessing it dries out very quickly when it gets cold enough

The second wave is definitely what I'm watching. Tulsa has mentioned an inch or two possible somewhere

And oh yeah there's already a clear sign for a big front again end of next week. Seems to be dry from what I've seen

[Cpv17]

Ok, now I’m conflicted. The GEFS has probably the strongest signal for cold I’ve seen yet this winter but it doesn’t have much support.

[Cerlin]

Ok, now I’m conflicted. The GEFS has probably the strongest signal for cold I’ve seen yet this winter but it doesn’t have much support.

Echoing what Ntxw has been saying, but it’s likely that there is going to be a pattern change and the models still don’t quite have a grasp on it, leading to variability.

[TheProfessor]

:froze:

Note the 2nd wave of snow at the end of the run in Oklahoma & Texas.

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

Yeah I'm not expecting anything from the initial plunge I'm guessing it dries out very quickly when it gets cold enough

The second wave is definitely what I'm watching. Tulsa has mentioned an inch or two possible somewhere

And oh yeah there's already a clear sign for a big front again end of next week. Seems to be dry from what I've seen

I'd keep watch of that first wave, it's going to be wet for Tulsa, but it wouldn't surprise me if it got cold at the surface earlier than expected and rain turns to a mix.

[Brent]

:froze:

The secondary storm from the main energy is definitely interesting. In Ohio I learned not to get my hopes up for it unless the system goes negatively tilted in time (which won't be the case for Texas). There are some spotty good dynamics down in Texas, but outside of that it's a bit dry where you want snow growth (the issue we could see here if that lead shortwave is too fast). Could be one of those feast or famine situations where someone gets some vorticity up above and it spits out snow but 10 miles east of there they get a dusting or freezing drizzle because dendritic growth isn't very good. If this trough was even neutrally tilted it would be a slam dunk (big time blizzard in NW Kansas, severe weather in E KS/OK etc.).

Yeah I'm not expecting anything from the initial plunge I'm guessing it dries out very quickly when it gets cold enough

The second wave is definitely what I'm watching. Tulsa has mentioned an inch or two possible somewhere

And oh yeah there's already a clear sign for a big front again end of next week. Seems to be dry from what I've seen

I'd keep watch of that first wave, it's going to be wet for Tulsa, but it wouldn't surprise me if it got cold at the surface earlier than expected and rain turns to a mix.

The initial plunge is definitely gonna be interesting to watch though just to see the flip with how warm it's been all month. I definitely wouldn't rule out a flash freeze type deal for sure but at least earlier they kept it north barely on the news

[txtwister78]

0z HRRR....secondary piece of energy showing up and generating some light snow and sleet in this extended run across the Big Country and South Plains Region.