Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

Euro finally caved with the QPF. About 0.5-0.75 through Wichita and along the Kansas Turnpike. Most of that as freezing rain falling with temperatures in the low 20s. That would be a nightmare with holiday travel. 

[TheProfessor]

Couldn't sleep so getting a little bit of meso analysis done. Looks like the front is around the Nebraska/Kansas border right now. El Paso and se New Mexico are getting some good rain it seems. HRRR has had to play a bit of catchup the last couple of runs with this. We'll see if it has any implications down the road.

Edit: 7 AM ob for Beatrice Nebraska (on the southern border) just came in. Wind shifted from southwest to northwest with a 5 degree temperature drop vs the 6 AM ob.

[HockeyTx82]

Couldn't sleep so getting a little bit of meso analysis done. Looks like the front is around the Nebraska/Kansas border right now. El Paso and se New Mexico are getting some good rain it seems. HRRR has had to play a bit of catchup the last couple of runs with this. We'll see if it has any implications down the road.

Edit: 7 AM ob for Beatrice Nebraska (on the southern border) just came in. Wind shifted from southwest to northwest with a 5 degree temperature drop vs the 6 AM ob.

How ahead of schedule is that?

Also for us Texas folks looks like the slight risk was put back for NE Texas east of I35.

[TheProfessor]

Couldn't sleep so getting a little bit of meso analysis done. Looks like the front is around the Nebraska/Kansas border right now. El Paso and se New Mexico are getting some good rain it seems. HRRR has had to play a bit of catchup the last couple of runs with this. We'll see if it has any implications down the road.

Edit: 7 AM ob for Beatrice Nebraska (on the southern border) just came in. Wind shifted from southwest to northwest with a 5 degree temperature drop vs the 6 AM ob.

How ahead of schedule is that?

Also for us Texas folks looks like the slight risk was put back for NE Texas east of I35.

Benchmark is for the front to only be in north-central Kansas at 18z, so I'll share where it's at then.

[Iceresistance]

My Weather Radio said it's expected to fall into the Single Digits for my area Saturday Night, it might get below Zero in Southern Kansas as well.

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing any sign of a major pattern shift through mid-January. This first front on Saturday will drain off a lot of the cold air to our north, though with no snow pack the air will moderate a good bit on its way south. The very fast west to east flow aloft would mean only glancing blows of cold air around the 5th-6th and again around the 10th. Each of those cold air surges would move mostly eastward. Average temps across Texas for January will not likely be as much above normal as December, but they may still be a bit above normal.

Still can't rule out a few snowflakes in the D-FW area and NE TX Saturday night in the cold air, but moisture will be very limited. Models still indicating the chance for a light freeze here in Houston on Monday morning. I have my two electric blankets and giant heating pad ready for duty Sunday/Monday. No need for a Sydney trip the next couple of weeks.

[Iceresistance]

Several Model Soundings are indicating a well-defined warm nose for this storm system, if the warm nose dies off or goes below freezing, the Ice/Sleet event could be just snow.

[TheProfessor]

Several Model Soundings are indicating a well-defined warm nose for this storm system, if the warm nose dies off or goes below freezing, the Ice/Sleet event could be just snow.

Warm noses don't just die, especially not with this setup. The reason the warm nose exists is because you have cold air at the surface outrunning cold air aloft creating a shallow cold air setup. The only way you would solve the warm nose problem would be if you delayed the onset of precip until colder air aloft moves in. Outside of that scenario most people south of Central Kansas will start out with rain or ice.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has trended WAY COLDER on the 2nd Wave, there is snow involved with the 2nd storm system, but it's as far south as US-412

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has trended WAY COLDER on the 2nd Wave, there is snow involved with the 2nd storm system, but it's as far south as US-412

I made a post last night. That air mass is very dense and shallow. Surface temps are way colder than aloft. Courtesy of a stronger mechanism to drive it (1050hp+). It's related/extension of the high mslp that descended Asia this past week.

This current cold snap gets us into the teens and around 20. The next one probably well into the teens which is about par with the coldest temps on average per winter.

[orangeblood]

I'm still not seeing any sign of a major pattern shift through mid-January. This first front on Saturday will drain off a lot of the cold air to our north, though with no snow pack the air will moderate a good bit on its way south. The very fast west to east flow aloft would mean only glancing blows of cold air around the 5th-6th and again around the 10th. Each of those cold air surges would move mostly eastward. Average temps across Texas for January will not likely be as much above normal as December, but they may still be a bit above normal.

Still can't rule out a few snowflakes in the D-FW area and NE TX Saturday night in the cold air, but moisture will be very limited. Models still indicating the chance for a light freeze here in Houston on Monday morning. I have my two electric blankets and giant heating pad ready for duty Sunday/Monday. No need for a Sydney trip the next couple of weeks.

With all due respect, how is this not a major pattern shift to turn the new year ?

We go from this past week …. 20F plus above normal



To this forecast over the next 7 days… 5-10f below normal


Glancing blows don’t produce 5-10F below over a 7 day time frame, that’s a pretty significant cold outbreak

[Ntxw]

I'm quite intrigued by the next cold blast. The norms of cold beats guidance badly there are some boxes you can check on that one. If that rising PNA ridge goes up further and the trough carves that could be exciting.

[Iceresistance]

I'm quite intrigued by the next cold blast. The norms of cold beats guidance badly there are some boxes you can check on that one. If that rising PNA ridge goes up further and the trough carves that could be exciting.

The 12z CMC is really aggressive on this one, even more aggressive than KFOR is right now


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Yikes-Thats-COLD.png

[orangeblood]

I'm quite intrigued by the next cold blast. The norms of cold beats guidance badly there are some boxes you can check on that one. If that rising PNA ridge goes up further and the trough carves that could be exciting.

https://i.imgur.com/gP2KCG8.png

As am I, it’s a Major Arctic HP by every definition…1060HP originating North of Alaska driving straight down into the Central US. And it’s one Arctic/Siberian HP after another on the GFS - The Euro ENS continues to look out of whack with its insistence to bring the MJO back towards Phase 6, its in 8 now and if it continues on like the CFSv2 is showing January is going to be in the freezer

[TheProfessor]

Definitely some drier trends with some of the 12z guidance (mostly the NAM/GFS suite) really could use the precip here. RAP/HRRR are still very wet (15z RAP keeps it snowing here well into the night with high ratios). 6z Euro was pretty good too. Will be interesting to see if the SREF keeps trending up too at 15z. RAP/HRRR/SREF are a pretty good combo, especially being less than 24 hours out. If those start to go dry then ice becomes a lot less of a concern, but we really need the QPF. If we don't get any rain by midnight, then Wichita will record it's driest December on record. So yeah, it's been that kind of month lol.

[TheProfessor]

WPC's 15z analysis has the front right at or even just south of where they were forecasting it at 18z (The 15z analysis came out an hour after the forecast). Does seem to be moving slowly right now, but even an hour or two early can make a difference.

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing any sign of a major pattern shift through mid-January. This first front on Saturday will drain off a lot of the cold air to our north, though with no snow pack the air will moderate a good bit on its way south. The very fast west to east flow aloft would mean only glancing blows of cold air around the 5th-6th and again around the 10th. Each of those cold air surges would move mostly eastward. Average temps across Texas for January will not likely be as much above normal as December, but they may still be a bit above normal.

Still can't rule out a few snowflakes in the D-FW area and NE TX Saturday night in the cold air, but moisture will be very limited. Models still indicating the chance for a light freeze here in Houston on Monday morning. I have my two electric blankets and giant heating pad ready for duty Sunday/Monday. No need for a Sydney trip the next couple of weeks.

With all due respect, how is this not a major pattern shift to turn the new year ?

We go from this past week …. 20F plus above normal
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/cdas-all/central/t2m_f_anom_7day_back/1640930400-cWIhcvuirLQ.png


To this forecast over the next 7 days… 5-10f below normal
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/central/t2m_f_anom_7day/1640952000/1641708000-pJXLiaruPyo.png

Glancing blows don’t produce 5-10F below over a 7 day time frame, that’s a pretty significant cold outbreak

It's a moderate cold front, typical of this time of year. Getting close to freezing for one morning here in SE Texas isn't anything out of the ordinary. Certainly, a change from the last 2 weeks, but the fast progressive pattern continues after this weekend's front. More of the next 2 weeks will have above normal temps in Texas than below-normal. Temps will probably average a little above normal for the next 2 weeks. The pattern just has more cold air to work with than last month, but it hasn't really changed. Pretty cold air in NW Canada, for sure, but can it make it south to Texas with the current flow pattern? Current models say no, but I'd like to see that very cold air gone.

[wxman57]

WPC's 15z analysis has the front right at or even just south of where they were forecasting it at 18z (The 15z analysis came out an hour after the forecast). Does seem to be moving slowly right now, but even an hour or two early can make a difference.

This type of front generally doesn't move quickly during the day due to warm air eroding the leading edge. It'll move faster at night.

[TheProfessor]

WPC's 15z analysis has the front right at or even just south of where they were forecasting it at 18z (The 15z analysis came out an hour after the forecast). Does seem to be moving slowly right now, but even an hour or two early can make a difference.

This type of front generally doesn't move quickly during the day due to warm air eroding the leading edge. It'll move faster at night.

It wasn't even supposed to be moving right now. WPC originally had it stationary in north-central Kansas at 18z. Front has entered my CWA. Salina and Russell turned northwest a bit ago, but I waited for the hourly ob to come out to make sure. Great Bend turned WNW as well. Won't take long for that front to clear the CWA once it starts gaining speed again.

[Iceresistance]

WPC's 15z analysis has the front right at or even just south of where they were forecasting it at 18z (The 15z analysis came out an hour after the forecast). Does seem to be moving slowly right now, but even an hour or two early can make a difference.

This type of front generally doesn't move quickly during the day due to warm air eroding the leading edge. It'll move faster at night.

It wasn't even supposed to be moving right now. WPC originally had it stationary in north-central Kansas at 18z. Front has entered my CWA. Salina and Russell turned northwest a bit ago, but I waited for the hourly ob to come out to make sure. Great Bend turned WNW as well. Won't take long for that front to clear the CWA once it starts gaining speed again.

Lyons, KS is next to get the cold front, the front appears to have cleared KS-156 (Highway 156 in Kansas) & US-56 from Great Bend to near Larned.

Dodge City has yet to get North Winds as well