Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

I wonder if we will see a repeat of last winter. The models kept showing something big and it never came. Until it did and Texas became the attic.

In terms of overall impact (snow and intense prolonged cold), that event last Feb was a generational type of event. Not suggesting obviously that we can't get cold or winter precip, but a lot has to come into play for that type of scenario (similar to Feb 2021) to occur in my opinion.

Yeah I agree we need to not compare any cold to Feb 2021. That's not likely to happen again in a long time. That's not to say it can't as we have had back to back years with exceptional cold, but that shouldn't be the bar every winter. Getting 5-10F averaged below normal period is not bad.

[Brent]

I wonder if we will see a repeat of last winter. The models kept showing something big and it never came. Until it did and Texas became the attic.

In terms of overall impact (snow and intense prolonged cold), that event last Feb was a generational type of event. Not suggesting obviously that we can't get cold or winter precip, but a lot has to come into play for that type of scenario (similar to Feb 2021) to occur in my opinion.

Yeah I agree we need to not compare any cold to Feb 2021. That's not likely to happen again in a long time. That's not to say it can't as we have had back to back years with exceptional cold, but that shouldn't be the bar every winter. Getting 5-10F averaged below normal period is not bad.

Yeah I would think if we see major cold this year it would be much like this weekend... A couple days at most. Theres a reason we had to go back to the 80s and 90s for that kind of prolonged cold...

[TheProfessor]

As expected this cold front is packing a punch. Went into Walmart around 4:30 with a southwest wind and 62 degree temp. Walked out at 5 with no wind similar temperature. 3 minutes later wind is kicking out of the NW. By the time I got home it was 40 outside. McPherson and Hutchinson are already below freezing. Much earlier than most models had.

[TropicalTundra]

As expected this cold front is packing a punch. Went into Walmart around 4:30 with a southwest wind and 62 degree temp. Walked out at 5 with no wind similar temperature. 3 minutes later wind is kicking out of the NW. By the time I got home it was 40 outside. McPherson and Hutchinson are already below freezing. Much earlier than most models had.

It looks like it’s already almost in extreme NW Oklahoma. It's definitely got some punch like you described. Border towns in Kansas are already in the 40’s and high 30’s. Oklahoma border towns are still around low to mid 60’s. Judging by the fronts speed I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached the northern Texas Panhandle by midnight.

[TheProfessor]

I think our Oklahoma friends are going to see a much faster changeover than expected. Cold air is quickly flowing behind the front. Hutchinson is already down to 26. Wichita is at 38. We weren't supposed to go below freezing till 6z on the fastest models. We'll likely do it in the next 2 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy New Year everyone! You folks up north please stay safe with a significant winter storm likely arriving tomorrow. Preparing for our first freeze here in Houston on Monday morning.

[TheProfessor]

Weatherbug has me at 32 now. About 5 hours earlier than expected. Oklahoma could be a real mess with there being more precip there.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow. Quite a front. Might mean there is a greater potential for snow?

[TheProfessor]

Wow. Quite a front. Might mean there is a greater potential for snow?

Hard to tell. Topeka probably launched their balloon around 4:30-5:30 so it captured the low levels quite a bit ago. There was a strong warm nose at that time so I'm not sure how fast the cold air aloft is moving. More likely this just means a bigger ice storm for Oklahoma before the transition to snow, but we'll see.

[TheProfessor]

Mesoanalysis has the 0c line at 850mb around I-70 in eastern Kansas, but it bends back down to Dodge in western Kansas. RAP gets that line down to Wichita in about 6 hours. Once that happens we're looking at all snow, 700mb 0c isotherm is already in Oklahoma (with the exception of SE KS and NE Oklahoma).

[TheProfessor]

Might have a legit shot at all snow here, just because models don't have us getting precip till 9-12z tomorrow. If precip starts earlier we probably start as sleet.

[rwfromkansas]

Happy New Year’s Eve. Exciting seeing the front!

On a side note, I just have to say RIP Betty White. She felt like my grandma. Sucks.

Anyway, my hometown is in the freezer already so that may mean more snow for them if they can switch over from sleet quicker.

[Ntxw]

As of this afternoon the resident Aleutian ridge is winding down and being torn apart by a new poleward Bering ridge. This mslp anomaly came from the E-Asian MT event. This area of high pressure is the one to watch as a piece of it will descend down North America (the next cold blast). You can see the cold front splitting the two zones. Will be one to watch.

The old regime, for now, has broken down.


MJO consequently is approaching P8, and boy has it been slow and likely a week or two later than expected but here nonetheless. These phases are little different in January than December (even p7) and it is very much resembles Nino-like forcing with a rising PNA. It is these periods of change that can produce some wild weather.



As we put December behind us, a new year, new month, and new outlook.

[TheProfessor]

Bout to head to bed (Not gonna wait to Midnight this year) we're down to 28 here. With the roads being dry they should cool down pretty quickly. Got a good 6 to 9 hours until most models start giving us precip, so anything that falls will stick just about immediately with surface temps in the low 20s or teens at the time. If we can get an immediate transition to snow and even just 0.3" ratios will get me to about 5". We may very well pull off the upset here, if we get 0.5" of QPF then that would be a coup. Going from ice storm to snow storm would be crazy! Gonna be a close call here I think.

[TropicalTundra]

Weatherbug has me at 32 now. About 5 hours earlier than expected. Oklahoma could be a real mess with there being more precip there.

The extreme north Texas Panhandle cities are already dropping temps fast. Dumas/Amarillo should be passed by the front by 11. Expect extremely fast dropping temperatures guys.

[gpsnowman]

Happy New Year Storm2k weather nuts!!! Adios hot and humid December hello frigid Jan and Feb. Bring it baby!!!!

[TropicalTundra]

Happy New Year!!!!

[Brent]

My warmest high in the next 10 days is 54!!! What a change right on time Happy New Year!

3 days near or below freezing highs not counting later tomorrow

[TheProfessor]

Starting off with freezing drizzle and ice pellets here before the main event. With it having been below freezing for a good 8 to 9 hours already, roads and sidewalks are already becoming slick. 0C 850 isotherm just made it to NW Wichita on Mesoanalysis. That doesn't guarantee flakes as there can still be a warm nose between 850 and 700mb, but since we're still a good 2-4 hours before the precip arrives there's a good chance we can cool the mid levels enough by then.

[wxman57]

My warmest high in the next 10 days is 54!!! What a change right on time Happy New Year!

3 days near or below freezing highs, not counting later tomorrow

That's why I am glad I live down south. In Houston, the high next Sunday may reach 80 again. No freeze for the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. It's very rare to make it past Christmas without a freeze. We haven't even had a temperature below 40 yet. That'll change tomorrow night, I'm afraid. Perhaps there is time to construct a secondary wall along the TX/OK border?