Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Never seen sleet like this before. Almost like a very dry snow. Doesn't even hurt to get hit by with our winds (I've been nailed by some nasty sleet before while I lived in Ohio). Seeing more flakes mix in. Again it's the dry powdery kind. Down to 17 degrees here. Even seeing snow/ice accumulating on top of water now.

That's graupel - partially melted snowflakes. They're round, light, and bounce like little styrofoam beads.

Nope wasn't graupel tho some of that was there too, this was definitely still sleet, but a much drier version than typical.

Sleet is clear, frozen raindrops. Graupel is the same size as sleet but white in color and much less dense. What you saw was one or the other.

Speaking of great January weather, it's a nice, comfy 84F here in Houston now. Perhaps the front will not make it here? Back in 1989, I rode the Alvin coastal century (100 miles) starting out with a temperature near 30 degrees. I was dressed for Arctic survival, perhaps overdressed for the speed I was riding.

[wxman57]

I may be seeing things but I think I just saw some tiny snowflakes

Could be, Ponca City just to your northwest is reporting snow. No snow here yet, but the temperature did just plunged down from 84F to 83.5F.

[TheProfessor]

That's graupel - partially melted snowflakes. They're round, light, and bounce like little styrofoam beads.

Nope wasn't graupel tho some of that was there too, this was definitely still sleet, but a much drier version than typical.

Sleet is clear, frozen raindrops. Graupel is the same size as sleet but white in color and much less dense. What you saw was one or the other.

Speaking of great January weather, it's a nice, comfy 84F here in Houston now. Perhaps the front will not make it here? Back in 1989, I rode the Alvin coastal century (100 miles) starting out with a temperature near 30 degrees. I was dressed for Arctic survival, perhaps overdressed for the speed I was riding.

It was definitely ice pellets (sleet) as the predominant p-type on the onset, you had snow and graupel mixing in, but it was sleet first, which was reported by the ASOS. These were very dry small ice pellets, still looked and acted like sleet, but just carried much less weight. Winds were around 30mph when I went out, that's a painful experience when you're dealing with the bigger wetter sleet you deal with when you have more moisture to work with, but these hardly tickled.

[Brent]

I may be seeing things but I think I just saw some tiny snowflakes

Could be, Ponca City just to your northwest is reporting snow. No snow here yet, but the temperature did just plunge down from 84F to 83.5F.

Yeah definitely seeing them now. That time I actually saw one without having to really look

[TropicalTundra]

Temperatures in Deep South Texas will definitely break some records. Mid 90s in South Texas meanwhile near single digits in the extreme north Panhandle. What a sight.

Temperatures across the state:

[Brent]

Temperatures in Deep South Texas will definitely break some records. Mid 90s in South Texas meanwhile near single digits in the extreme north Panhandle. What a sight.

Temperatures across the state:

https://i.imgur.com/bBCAtod.jpg

The temperature contrast like today down there will never get old

[Ntxw]

[rwfromkansas]

Snow in Lubbock per family. It has dropped 30 degrees here in north Fort Worth.

[Ntxw]

We're getting an Aleutian low pattern. Some of the major flip years (including last) featured some of the best Aleutian low set ups that can be pre-cursors to major Arctic dumps. It's a classic MJO P7 -> P8 pattern. SPV will get attacked, now likely to stretch and perhaps dislocate. Minus the -PDO still like 1984-1985 as a path forward. TPV anomaly is loaded in NA with a lot of cold. No sign yet of direct discharge but it's a fairly chilly stretch, especially northern half of the state for the next few weeks. Brief spikes in temps (60s) will be because of incoming Arctic air but overall lots of NW flow a loft. Got to watch the southwest for any disturbances.

[SnowintheFalls]

Bitterly cold and very light snowflakes here in Burkburnett.

[rwfromkansas]

Just saw a photo of covered ground north of Lubbock. That’s more than I think they were supposed to get.

[SnowintheFalls]

Snow is heading this way from west Texas but no accumulations expected.

[Ntxw]

Just saw a photo of covered ground north of Lubbock. That’s more than I think they were supposed to get.

It's very cold and wouldn't take them much to get high ratios.

[Golf7270]

We're getting an Aleutian low pattern. Some of the major flip years (including last) featured some of the best Aleutian low set ups that can be pre-cursors to major Arctic dumps. It's a classic MJO P7 -> P8 pattern. SPV will get attacked, now likely to stretch and perhaps dislocate. Minus the -PDO still like 1984-1985 as a path forward. TPV anomaly is loaded in NA with a lot of cold. No sign yet of direct discharge but it's a fairly chilly stretch, especially northern half of the state for the next few weeks. Brief spikes in temps (60s) will be because of incoming Arctic air but overall lots of NW flow a loft. Got to watch the southwest for any disturbances.

https://i.imgur.com/5W5fMRw.png

https://i.imgur.com/tpVOHS1.png

https://i.imgur.com/w9uvsqp.png

Happy new years guys! Ntxw, have a question. Do you think the mjo can make it through 8-2, especially since most people thought it wouldn't make it to 8? The cfsv2 indicated that possibly. The +pna that ensues will keep coldest weather and storminess east of us, unfortunately

[Tireman4]

I may be seeing things but I think I just saw some tiny snowflakes

Could be, Ponca City just to your northwest is reporting snow. No snow here yet, but the temperature did just plunged down from 84F to 83.5F.

Oh sir, you are just too much. Just a laugh riot, you are. Lol. Happy New Year!

[Cpv17]

We're getting an Aleutian low pattern. Some of the major flip years (including last) featured some of the best Aleutian low set ups that can be pre-cursors to major Arctic dumps. It's a classic MJO P7 -> P8 pattern. SPV will get attacked, now likely to stretch and perhaps dislocate. Minus the -PDO still like 1984-1985 as a path forward. TPV anomaly is loaded in NA with a lot of cold. No sign yet of direct discharge but it's a fairly chilly stretch, especially northern half of the state for the next few weeks. Brief spikes in temps (60s) will be because of incoming Arctic air but overall lots of NW flow a loft. Got to watch the southwest for any disturbances.

https://i.imgur.com/5W5fMRw.png

https://i.imgur.com/tpVOHS1.png

https://i.imgur.com/w9uvsqp.png

Happy new years guys! Ntxw, have a question. Do you think the mjo can make it through 8-2, especially since most people thought it wouldn't make it to 8? The cfsv2 indicated that possibly. The +pna that ensues will keep coldest weather and storminess east of us, unfortunately

Ntxw posted a graph yesterday that had the PNA going into neutral…

[Brent]

Tiny flakes have picked up a bit

Maybe we can over perform tonight but I dunno

[Ntxw]

We're getting an Aleutian low pattern. Some of the major flip years (including last) featured some of the best Aleutian low set ups that can be pre-cursors to major Arctic dumps. It's a classic MJO P7 -> P8 pattern. SPV will get attacked, now likely to stretch and perhaps dislocate. Minus the -PDO still like 1984-1985 as a path forward. TPV anomaly is loaded in NA with a lot of cold. No sign yet of direct discharge but it's a fairly chilly stretch, especially northern half of the state for the next few weeks. Brief spikes in temps (60s) will be because of incoming Arctic air but overall lots of NW flow a loft. Got to watch the southwest for any disturbances.

https://i.imgur.com/5W5fMRw.png

https://i.imgur.com/tpVOHS1.png

https://i.imgur.com/w9uvsqp.png

Happy new years guys! Ntxw, have a question. Do you think the mjo can make it through 8-2, especially since most people thought it wouldn't make it to 8? The cfsv2 indicated that possibly. The +pna that ensues will keep coldest weather and storminess east of us, unfortunately

With a western ridge I always have that concern as well. I think the MJO will be very slow to move at all. La Nina is still fighting the MJO progression by having colder waters east where if warmer allows the MJO convection to go. This is why this pattern took about a week longer for the MJO to move and then mid latitudes flip. Models were too fast originally, may be the case again. -PDO will try to go against the +PNA. Not the perfect pattern but colder pattern for sure.

1. We got the -PNA to build the cold with the Aleutian ridge over Canada.
2. We got the Aleutian ridge to go poleward
3. Next we need the Aleutian low, this period is risky with coldest air east but attacks PV.
4. Retrograde the pattern and unload the Arctic.

[Golf7270]

We're getting an Aleutian low pattern. Some of the major flip years (including last) featured some of the best Aleutian low set ups that can be pre-cursors to major Arctic dumps. It's a classic MJO P7 -> P8 pattern. SPV will get attacked, now likely to stretch and perhaps dislocate. Minus the -PDO still like 1984-1985 as a path forward. TPV anomaly is loaded in NA with a lot of cold. No sign yet of direct discharge but it's a fairly chilly stretch, especially northern half of the state for the next few weeks. Brief spikes in temps (60s) will be because of incoming Arctic air but overall lots of NW flow a loft. Got to watch the southwest for any disturbances.

https://i.imgur.com/5W5fMRw.png

https://i.imgur.com/tpVOHS1.png

https://i.imgur.com/w9uvsqp.png

Happy new years guys! Ntxw, have a question. Do you think the mjo can make it through 8-2, especially since most people thought it wouldn't make it to 8? The cfsv2 indicated that possibly. The +pna that ensues will keep coldest weather and storminess east of us, unfortunately

With a western ridge I always have that concern as well. I think the MJO will be very slow to move at all. La Nina is still fighting the MJO progression by having colder waters east where if warmer allows the MJO convection to go. This is why this pattern took about a week longer for the MJO to move and then mid latitudes flip. Models were too fast originally, may be the case again. -PDO will try to go against the +PNA. Not the perfect pattern but colder pattern for sure.

1. We got the -PNA to build the cold with the Aleutian ridge over Canada.
2. We got the Aleutian ridge to go poleward
3. Next we need the Aleutian low, this period is risky with coldest air east but attacks PV.
4. Retrograde the pattern and unload the Arctic.

I just hope the mjo can stay out of 4-6 phases. Whatever it takes to make that happen.

[TheProfessor]

Snow picking back up again, anything that wasn't coated before is now.