Texas Winter 2021-2022

[HockeyTx82]

Ran 7 miles this morning in Colorado County with a wind chill of 14.

Normal mile splits in mild or hot weather are around 8 minutes. I was ripping off ~7 mile splits in this weather.

It felt so good.

I know the feeling. I would have been out this morning but with near 0 wind chill here and still not 100% over my upper respiratory cooler heads prevailed. Took me two rounds of antibiotics and I was down for like 3 weeks, don't want to lapse again. Got a nice run in this afternoon, just 3.1 as I'm not wanting to push it to much.

[TropicalTundra]

Looks like Atlanta’s finally getting their first snow in a while. They definitely deserve it. It’s been almost exactly the same warm weather as it has been over here.

[Ralph's Weather]

Upper teens to 20s made it all the way into interior South Texas this morning.

[Texas Snowman]

Made it down to 17 degrees yesterday morning in Denison. Up to 37 in bright sunshine yesterday afternoon. And down to 21 degrees overnight. Even a few snow flurries late Saturday and early Sunday..

Perfect bike riding weather, only a few weeks removed from talk of a “winter cancel.”

[HockeyTx82]

This is all we get this year. Time to move on to the Spring thread.

Lol there was a lot of crow to be had when that was said after last January’s storm. I’ll roll the dice for another 6 weeks before packing it in.

Yeah February is probably gonna be the peak again I'm guessing. January has been usually too dry as evidenced here last night like literally we almost had accumulation from a flizzard but there was just no moisture

So far post seems to have scared people away. Not much chatter since.

[orangeblood]

Another interesting variable that is much different than recent years past is the phenomenal Arctic sea ice growth this winter season (and contrary to the Climate Alarmist Narrative)....this is now the largest Arctic Sea Ice Area Extent of the past 18 years. Also Note - the other highest years (2012, 2006) were above average Winter temp years in the southern plains.

[Rgv20]

Got down to 31this morning at my backyard

[snowballzzz]

Got down to 15 degrees yesterday morning and this morning in Weatherford. Sure feels great but the inconsistent weather and lack of precip is no bueno. Not much to look forward to within the next two weeks as of now, either. At least we are closer to "normal".

[cheezyWXguy]

Another interesting variable that is much different than recent years past is the phenomenal Arctic sea ice growth this winter season (and contrary to the Climate Alarmist Narrative)....this is now the largest Arctic Sea Ice Area Extent of the past 18 years. Also Note - the other highest years (2012, 2006) were above average Winter temp years in the southern plains.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3721.0;attach=331060;image

https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png

While I find your meteorological point interesting, your climatological one seems awfully politically charged given the use of the word “alarmist”, and seems to contradict the data you posted. It may be the highest sea ice extent of the years listed in the table, but it’s still below all of the previous decadal averages listed at the bottom, which show a definitive decreasing trend since the 1980s. Maybe we should keep the climate talk out of this discussion.

[Quixotic]

One could argue that higher ice growth led to a stronger polar jet, bottling up all the cold and leaving us warm and dry.

[Texas Snowman]

Everyone, friendly reminder, stay on topic please.

Enjoy what we’ve got right now, what may or may not happen in the weeks ahead, and for the moment, even the alter ego of Wxman 57.

[Cpv17]

Models look absolutely terrible right now. No sugarcoating it. But who knows, maybe they can flip back to a better pattern just as fast as they left it. Just a few runs ago the 0z GFS Saturday night looked really good and so did a lot of runs before it albeit not as good as that one but surely a lot better than what they’re showing now. I wouldn’t bank on it happening but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Smart money says we’ll probably go back into a spring like pattern which would be okay as long as we could get some rain with it, which might happen especially in the southern half of the state. Sorry to say but things look pretty boring right now.

[txtwister78]

Models look absolutely terrible right now. No sugarcoating it. But who knows, maybe they can flip back to a better pattern just as fast as they left it. Just a few runs ago the 0z GFS Saturday night looked really good and so did a lot of runs before it albeit not as good as that one but surely a lot better than what they’re showing now. I wouldn’t bank on it happening but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Smart money says we’ll probably go back into a spring like pattern which would be okay as long as we could get some rain with it, which might happen especially in the southern half of the state. Sorry to say but things look pretty boring right now.

I think the MJO is going back into 7 (earlier runs had it getting into 8 faster) for a bit but still forecast to get into 8 in the 10-15 so perhaps things will change then but with the PNA moving closer to neutral/positive, we should see some precip as you pointed out enter the forecast soon with cooler temps.

[Cpv17]

Models look absolutely terrible right now. No sugarcoating it. But who knows, maybe they can flip back to a better pattern just as fast as they left it. Just a few runs ago the 0z GFS Saturday night looked really good and so did a lot of runs before it albeit not as good as that one but surely a lot better than what they’re showing now. I wouldn’t bank on it happening but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Smart money says we’ll probably go back into a spring like pattern which would be okay as long as we could get some rain with it, which might happen especially in the southern half of the state. Sorry to say but things look pretty boring right now.

I think the MJO is going back into 7 (earlier runs had it getting into 8 faster) for a bit but still forecast to get into 8 in the 10-15 so perhaps things will change then but with the PNA moving closer to neutral/positive, we should see some precip as you pointed out enter the forecast soon with cooler temps.

Yeah, I agree. I don’t necessarily think we’ll go into a complete torch like pattern like we had in December but rather more like temps will be closer to average with an increased chance of rain. I think we have to wait till the MJO goes into p8 till we get some real cold around here like you said.

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Brent]

Honestly I know snow has taken over the talk but if that can't happen anytime soon we really need a big like widespread days of rain setup because it's getting dry and that won't be good in a few months when we definitely start warming up again

[bubba hotep]

The ensembles don't look great but overall they aren't terrible and the long range pattern is looking better towards the last 1/3 of January. Temps look to be seasonal to slightly above the next 10 days or so, which is basically perfect weather for North Texas if it isn't going to snow.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has snow for Oklahoma & Northern Texas 2 weeks out, it's too far away to be certain, but it's something to keep an eye on.

[TheProfessor]

Have a sneaky little system moving through tomorrow night that could drop a dusting to 2" of snow here. Not expecting much QPF, but could see 20-1 ratios, perhaps higher.

[rwfromkansas]

Pretty quiet here. Hopefully the last half of the month will pick back up. Just don't want the December torch. No 80s or upper 70s...