Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1741 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:50 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Have a sneaky little system moving through tomorrow night that could drop a dusting to 2" of snow here. Not expecting much QPF, but could see 20-1 ratios, perhaps higher.


Hopefully get a storm with more moisture soon

Maybe some flurries here again Thursday but I'm ready for something more :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1742 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:15 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1743 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:41 pm

Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1744 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.


Well you didn't mention February :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1745 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:56 pm

Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.


Well you didn't mention February :spam:


I'm very sure that this February will counter the Record December Warmth with extreme cold. :cold: :eek:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1746 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:09 pm

Really nice consensus showing up for mid-month on all 3 Major Ensembles, maybe even a slight McFarland Signature on the table ???

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1747 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:34 pm




It's probably been a long while since I've seen the Ensemble models in this kind of agreement this far out before!
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1748 Postby harp » Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:



It's probably been a long while since I've seen the Ensemble models in this kind of agreement this far out before!

It’s just not showing up yet on the operational GFS. It’s very inconsistent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1749 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1750 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:48 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


:lol: That made me chuckle a little bit.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1751 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:14 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


Haha right.. mid 20s here. That's actually colder than the highs this weekend :lol: Saturday had an early high and then Sunday actually got close to 32
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1752 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:21 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


He didn’t say which wall. He has several. Central Tx, Red river, Ok/Ks border, Canadian border, and others I’ve probably forgotten about. Maybe a wall in Siberia too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1753 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:44 pm

gboudx wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


He didn’t say which wall. He has several. Central Tx, Red river, Ok/Ks border, Canadian border, and others I’ve probably forgotten about. Maybe a wall in Siberia too.

Well where I’m at; counting the Siberian wall, the Canadian wall, the OK/KS wall and the Red River wall; that’s 4 that are failing. That’s pretty good odds for us cold weather fans that all of the others will fail too at some point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1754 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:08 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
gboudx wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


He didn’t say which wall. He has several. Central Tx, Red river, Ok/Ks border, Canadian border, and others I’ve probably forgotten about. Maybe a wall in Siberia too.

Well where I’m at; counting the Siberian wall, the Canadian wall, the OK/KS wall and the Red River wall; that’s 4 that are failing. That’s pretty good odds for us cold weather fans that all of the others will fail too at some point.


It may only be the CTX wall that’s been reinforced so far. They all just failed in spectacular fashion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1755 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:29 pm

gboudx wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
gboudx wrote:
He didn’t say which wall. He has several. Central Tx, Red river, Ok/Ks border, Canadian border, and others I’ve probably forgotten about. Maybe a wall in Siberia too.

Well where I’m at; counting the Siberian wall, the Canadian wall, the OK/KS wall and the Red River wall; that’s 4 that are failing. That’s pretty good odds for us cold weather fans that all of the others will fail too at some point.


It may only be the CTX wall that’s been reinforced so far. They all just failed in spectacular fashion.


Not really. Last weekend we made to the teens at one point. Sure there were no flurries but hey! There was at least cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1756 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:44 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.


Well you didn't mention February :spam:


I'm very sure that this February will counter the Record December Warmth with extreme cold. :cold: :eek:



Just because last February was cold doesn’t mean we can expect it to do the same again. It may very well be a hot February. As I’ve said before, there isn’t a such thing as a month being a “counter” to another.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1757 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:51 am

Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


Haha right.. mid 20s here. That's actually colder than the highs this weekend :lol: Saturday had an early high and then Sunday actually got close to 32


Don't care what the temps are way up north closer to Canada where you two live. The high will be near 70 here in Houston Thursday, in the 60s Friday, and near 80 Saturday and Sunday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1758 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:33 am

Beautiful 500mb chart coming together on the GEFS for mid-month....NE Pacific/Alaskan Ridge, Greenland Block, Cross-Polar flow, with hints of a Subtropic jet sneaking through

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1759 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:12 am

The core of the cold looks to be east, but TX should be cold in that pattern. It's also the 500 map, so maybe that's not accurate for what the surface cold will be, not sure how that works. Regardless, anything is better than the old stagnant pattern. Need moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1760 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:31 am

rwfromkansas wrote:The core of the cold looks to be east, but TX should be cold in that pattern. It's also the 500 map, so maybe that's not accurate for what the surface cold will be, not sure how that works. Regardless, anything is better than the old stagnant pattern. Need moisture.


Also note that it's nearly 2 weeks out, this is very likely to change & the moisture potential is also going to change as well
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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