Texas Winter 2021-2022

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1761 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:34 am

Any big HP that crashes down from Canada gets me snow and will bring cold for you guys too, so let's keep working on that pattern :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1762 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:35 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Highs are back above normal here in Houston and I am back! Safe to go outside again. My wall has been reinforced and should prevent any similar cold air intrusions this month.

It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.



If a model says 80s for highs in January, it is nails. If it says 30s for highs, it is on crack..lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1763 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:It must not be holding that well since Thursday’s high is suppose to be around freezing with a low in mid teens and single digit windchills.


Haha right.. mid 20s here. That's actually colder than the highs this weekend :lol: Saturday had an early high and then Sunday actually got close to 32


Don't care what the temps are way up north closer to Canada where you two live. The high will be near 70 here in Houston Thursday, in the 60s Friday, and near 80 Saturday and Sunday.

I guess we’ll see aboot that now eh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1764 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:24 pm

12z GFS has multiple Winter Storms across the Southern Plains starting at +306 Hours to the end of the run

(The first storm is HUGE! 15-18 inches of snow for Wichita, Kansas, 9-11 inches for Tulsa, OK, & 2-8 inches for OKC.)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1765 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:12z GFS has multiple Winter Storms across the Southern Plains starting at +306 Hours to the end of the run

(The first storm is HUGE! 15-18 inches of snow for Wichita, Kansas, 9-11 inches for Tulsa, OK, & 2-8 inches for OKC.)


The upper-air pattern then doesn't indicate the air will be particularly cold. GFS is likely way overdoing the winter weather. After above-normal temps here in SE TX Sat/Sun, temps look only a little above normal for the next week or two. Not the 11-12F above normal that we all enjoyed in December. Unfortunately, the 30-deg temps here Sun/Mon appear to have killed my big banana trees. Some were nearly a foot in diameter. Lots of cutting down to do. That's what sub-freezing air is good for - nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1766 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:12z GFS has multiple Winter Storms across the Southern Plains starting at +306 Hours to the end of the run

(The first storm is HUGE! 15-18 inches of snow for Wichita, Kansas, 9-11 inches for Tulsa, OK, & 2-8 inches for OKC.)


The upper-air pattern then doesn't indicate the air will be particularly cold. GFS is likely way overdoing the winter weather. After above-normal temps here in SE TX Sat/Sun, temps look only a little above normal for the next week or two. Not the 11-12F above normal that we all enjoyed in December. Unfortunately, the 30-deg temps here Sun/Mon appear to have killed my big banana trees. Some were nearly a foot in diameter. Lots of cutting down to do. That's what sub-freezing air is good for - nothing.


For SE Texas, there is no cold air expected down there, for now . . . I'm mostly focused on the broader view in the Southern Plains, also for now
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1767 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:For SE Texas, there is no cold air expected down there, for now . . . I'm mostly focused on the broader view in the Southern Plains, also for now


You can have your cold up north. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the mid to upper 70s here in Houston today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1768 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:For SE Texas, there is no cold air expected down there, for now . . . I'm mostly focused on the broader view in the Southern Plains, also for now


You can have your cold up north. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the mid to upper 70s here in Houston today.


I'm expecting Highs in the Mid-20s with Wind Chills near 0 Tomorrow, but Houston is going to be in the 70s Tomorrow as well . . . :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1769 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:For SE Texas, there is no cold air expected down there, for now . . . I'm mostly focused on the broader view in the Southern Plains, also for now


You can have your cold up north. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the mid to upper 70s here in Houston today.


I’m outside pressure washing at my job right now in Rosenberg. It actually feels pretty good out. Humidity isn’t that bad and there’s a cool breeze.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1770 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:For SE Texas, there is no cold air expected down there, for now . . . I'm mostly focused on the broader view in the Southern Plains, also for now


You can have your cold up north. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the mid to upper 70s here in Houston today.


I'm expecting Highs in the Mid-20s with Wind Chills near 0 Tomorrow, but Houston is going to be in the 70s Tomorrow as well . . . :roll:


There's about a 500 mile distance between you and Houston, which is significant when discussing temperatures in the winter. That's about the same distance as Dallas to Topeka (Salina is a bit closer actually) and you can imagine how much colder and snowier Topeka is than Dallas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1771 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:49 pm

Hopefully that 12z GFS is a sign of things to come at least... If we're gonna have wind chills near zero I want some snow with it :lol

Although the bit about Oklahoma being up north is making me laugh :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1772 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:20 pm

Brent wrote:Hopefully that 12z GFS is a sign of things to come at least... If we're gonna have wind chills near zero I want some snow with it :lol

Although the bit about Oklahoma being up north is making me laugh :lol:


Well compared to where me and 57 are, y’all are dang near halfway to Canada lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1773 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:54 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
You can have your cold up north. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the mid to upper 70s here in Houston today.


I'm expecting Highs in the Mid-20s with Wind Chills near 0 Tomorrow, but Houston is going to be in the 70s Tomorrow as well . . . :roll:


There's about a 500 mile distance between you and Houston, which is significant when discussing temperatures in the winter. That's about the same distance as Dallas to Topeka (Salina is a bit closer actually) and you can imagine how much colder and snowier Topeka is than Dallas.

Don’t remind me…
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1774 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:15 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
I'm expecting Highs in the Mid-20s with Wind Chills near 0 Tomorrow, but Houston is going to be in the 70s Tomorrow as well . . . :roll:


There's about a 500 mile distance between you and Houston, which is significant when discussing temperatures in the winter. That's about the same distance as Dallas to Topeka (Salina is a bit closer actually) and you can imagine how much colder and snowier Topeka is than Dallas.

Don’t remind me…


Lol even up here I think there's only been I think 3 snowless winters since 1900

And all were before 1910

Technically we've already had flurries I guess :lol:
Last edited by Brent on Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1775 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:25 pm

Brent wrote:Hopefully that 12z GFS is a sign of things to come at least... If we're gonna have wind chills near zero I want some snow with it :lol

Although the bit about Oklahoma being up north is making me laugh :lol:


The 18Z GFS surface matches the flow pattern better than the 12Z.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1776 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:49 am

First morning back in Norman this year and wind chills are currently at -2…it is COLD out there. :froze: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1777 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:06 am

Cerlin wrote:First morning back in Norman this year and wind chills are currently at -2…it is COLD out there. :froze: :cold:


Does it seem like that the cold was just waiting for you? :lol: My Wind Chill is 0°F right now.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1778 Postby snowballzzz » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:10 am

End of the 00z Euro today hinting at a storm system that brings a bit of cold weather and mixed precip to North/NW Texas on 1/15. Obviously far out and does not look like an arctic air mass in place at this time, but nice to see the hints here and there of actual winter weather and even actual precip in general. Most models hinting at a few systems over the next couple of weeks, so fingers crossed for even a bit of rain. We need it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1779 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:11 am

Didn't get to cash in on the heavier snow band that dropped 2-4" of snow 20-30 miles north of me, but it's still snowing here with a decent bit on the ground already so it's going to be a nice system for us overall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1780 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:39 am

Low 60s this morning in Houston. Cold front should reach us by noon. Quick turn-around to onshore flow tomorrow, warming us back up. GFS runs after yesterday's 12Z snowmageddon run are more reasonable looking. The surface features match the upper-air flow. That wasn't the case with yesterday's 12Z GFS. Euro doesn't indicate any real cold air down here in SE TX over the next 10 days. Low into the upper 30s one day. Temps a little above normal.
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