Texas Winter 2021-2022

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS 5-day mean. Remember, the ensembles smooth things out in the longer range, I would fully expect something to sneak under that ridge and provide some winter weather for the Southern Plains, if this verifies.

[rwfromkansas]

Nice look!

[Brent]

0z GFS snow in Oklahoma at 276 Arctic air plunging south into Texas

Big winter storm in Texas around 300 unfortunately this is fantasy land but verbatim it's close to two winter storms here

[Ntxw]

0z GFS snow in Oklahoma at 276 Arctic air plunging south into Texas

Big winter storm in Texas around 300 unfortunately this is fantasy land but verbatim it's close to two winter storms here

That's the kind of potential pattern we are heading into. Can miss but if cold and the STJ hits you get snowstorms. Very El Nino like.

[Brent]

Most of that in Central Texas is ice and again this is 300 hours

[Haris]

Can the snow capital Austin sustain its reputation

[Ntxw]

Very good support from ensembles Jan 15 forward is primetime.

[TropicalTundra]

:spam:

Most of that in Central Texas is ice and again this is 300 hours

https://i.ibb.co/kJvs1jg/gfs-asnow-scus-55.png

No thanks. I'd rather have 30 degrees and dry over 11 inches of ice...

[wxman57]

Don't get your hopes up too much for the event in 12 days (00Z GFS). Once again, the surface map bears no relation to the 500mb chart, which suggests much less cold air over Texas. The 06Z run looks more realistic.

[WinterMax]

Don't get your hopes up too much for the event in 12 days (00Z GFS). Once again, the surface map bears no relation to the 500mb chart, which suggests much less cold air over Texas. The 06Z run looks more realistic.

Those late night runs get a little rambunctious, I guess the trend is your friend.

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS has a stronger Snowfall Signal compared to 0z, Member #8 is looking very big for Northern & Central Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Cant beat cold mornings. 13 this morning.

[orangeblood]

CFSv2 trending towards what could be a really interesting last 1/2 of Winter...this is the 30 day temp anomaly forecast starting mid-month thru mid-Feb , above normal precip to go along with this



Also has backing from the Euro Extended Control Run and GEFS

[Ntxw]

The Pacific has mostly reversed. You'd be happy to see this kind of winter forcing even in an El Nino. Persistent dateline forcing is pretty uncommon, usually in moderate El Ninos.

[orangeblood]

The Pacific has mostly reversed. You'd be happy to see this kind of winter forcing even in an El Nino. Persistent dateline forcing is pretty uncommon, usually in moderate El Ninos.

very uncommon and why North America looks to be continuously ground zero for the coldest air on the planet (relative to averages)

[WacoWx]

NTXW, when you say the Pacific has reversed, are you referring to the water temps that set up the La Nina?

Got down to 22 IMBY.

[lukem]

11 degrees this morning at the ranch outside Albany, Texas. Man, that kind of snuck up on me!

[Ntxw]

NTXW, when you say the Pacific has reversed, are you referring to the water temps that set up the La Nina?

Got down to 22 IMBY.

Not necessarily it is still a La Nina. But the tropical forcing, convection, is in a region that occurs in El Nino. These are sub-seasonal events that for 30-45 days can influence weather patterns outside of their norms. This is all related to the MJO movement.

You can see how the SOI has reversed course from December with much lower numbers more typical of El Nino. Tahiti sits near the international dateline so if the pressures there are lower, storms and rising motion is occurring.

[rwfromkansas]

Love the DFW snow hole on the Euro weeklies. Lol.

[G'TownGirl]

Well, this Central Texas G'Town Girl girl is now a resident of the Blue Ridge Mountains as of November 7. I had snow a few days ago, and brief flurries last night.... hate to rub it in.... but.... just sayin'
I hope everyone gets their snow dreams fulfilled this season!