Texas Winter 2021-2022
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
You’re right. I thought it was just me.wxman57 wrote:The 12Z GFS seems to have stalled at 168 hrs.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:You’re right. I thought it was just me.wxman57 wrote:The 12Z GFS seems to have stalled at 168 hrs.
College of DuPage has the 12z GFS almost done
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:harp wrote:You’re right. I thought it was just me.wxman57 wrote:The 12Z GFS seems to have stalled at 168 hrs.
College of DuPage has the 12z GFS almost done
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast
It's in through 384 hrs on my workstation, but not at TT. Pivotal weather has it out to 201 hrs now.
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WinterMax
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:harp wrote: You’re right. I thought it was just me.
College of DuPage has the 12z GFS almost done
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast
It's in through 384 hrs on my workstation, but not at TT. Pivotal weather has it out to 201 hrs now.
Any nice warm weather on it? Or any snowy artic mess for Texas and Louisiana?
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kingwood_tx1999
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
As expected, the Texas snow/ice storm that the 00Z GFS had around the 19th is gone. Pattern aloft doesn't support it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:As expected, the Texas snow/ice storm that the 00Z GFS had around the 19th is gone. Pattern aloft doesn't support it.
Not really worried about what single operational runs show. It could show a foot of snow for me and I wouldn’t even be excited about it. Past 5 days out I only care about the ensembles. Operationals are only decent for a few days.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Don't look at Ensemble Member #2 on the 12z GEFS, it looks very cursed.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:As expected, the Texas snow/ice storm that the 00Z GFS had around the 19th is gone. Pattern aloft doesn't support it.
The snow and ice is gone, but the same storm is still there with the same vorticity. Just not enough cold.
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:wxman57 wrote:As expected, the Texas snow/ice storm that the 00Z GFS had around the 19th is gone. Pattern aloft doesn't support it.
Not really worried about what single operational runs show. It could show a foot of snow for me and I wouldn’t even be excited about it. Past 5 days out I only care about the ensembles. Operationals are only decent for a few days.
Yeah and tbh the setups north of here the last week I don't remember then showing up til a few days before so honestly im not saying anything will happen but you can't close the door on it just because the op GFS is all over the place. The ensembles are definitely key and last I saw they looked pretty decent for that range
And tbh I don't want more dry Arctic air anyway. Give me borderline temps and snow any day over that
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#neversummer
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:The GFS is skipping frames and is stuck.....again.
College of DuPage does not have this problem!
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
That 0z Canadian run pretty much fantasy land although it is 200 hours out. If it starts trending we'll finally have something to look at after all these boring model runs. 
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TropicalTundra wrote:That 0z Canadian run pretty much fantasy land although it is 200 hours out. If it starts trending we'll finally have something to look at after all these boring model runs.
https://i.imgur.com/YEjlou6.jpg
6z GFS is similar.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
One thing to note: the PNA has turned Neutral, that means that the chances of a major event across the Southern Plains has increased again.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:TropicalTundra wrote:That 0z Canadian run pretty much fantasy land although it is 200 hours out. If it starts trending we'll finally have something to look at after all these boring model runs.
https://i.imgur.com/YEjlou6.jpg
6z GFS is similar.
Similar, except that the 6Z GFS has the high in southern OK vs. southern MN, and there is no winter weather across Texas in the 6Z GFS. The only similarity I see is that both have rain in south Texas.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Looks like the overnight models have ditched the nice looking Southern Plains rain event that they had been showing for days... Despite some promising looking changes, it appears the background state hasn't changed enough and it still dominating our pattern.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Two cents this morning I still like the pattern moving in for snow I'd bet the farm someone's going to cash. That's a beautiful dateline convection assimilation.
We have to contend with the Nina drought ongoing but STJ is about to kick in.
We have to contend with the Nina drought ongoing but STJ is about to kick in.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Two cents this morning I still like the pattern moving in for snow I'd bet the farm someone's going to cash. That's a beautiful dateline convection assimilation.
We have to contend with the Nina drought ongoing but STJ is about to kick in.
I honestly feel like we’re gonna get some pretty good cold blasts over the next 6 weeks.
And to me the bigger question is how’s the summer looking now since supposedly the Niña is fading?
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