Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1921 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:11 pm

18z GFS has snow in Oklahoma, but it's very far out, but at least there is something worthy of tracking (Unless that poofs out in the 0z Run)

ETA: 2 Snow events in Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1922 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:21 pm

Trough is too far east unfortunately. It's too far east for my area. Eventually we will get the return of the -pna and alutian ridge but if it's too strong like December, we can throw in the towel until next winter imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1923 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:22 pm

Golf7270 wrote:Trough is too far east unfortunately. It's too far east for my area. Eventually we will get the return of the -pna and alutian ridge but if it's too strong like December, we can throw in the towel until next winter imo.


Unless there is a East Coast Ridge (And maybe a California Ridge?)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1924 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:31 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Golf7270 wrote:Trough is too far east unfortunately. It's too far east for my area. Eventually we will get the return of the -pna and alutian ridge but if it's too strong like December, we can throw in the towel until next winter imo.


Unless there is a East Coast Ridge (And maybe a California Ridge?)

Hopefully we can cash in while there is some cold air, but we need some shifts from mother nature for that I believe
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1925 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:07 pm

Golf7270 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Golf7270 wrote:Trough is too far east unfortunately. It's too far east for my area. Eventually we will get the return of the -pna and alutian ridge but if it's too strong like December, we can throw in the towel until next winter imo.


Unless there is a East Coast Ridge (And maybe a California Ridge?)

Hopefully we can cash in while there is some cold air, but we need some shifts from mother nature for that I believe


Can you put your location in your profile please?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1926 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:19 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Golf7270 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Unless there is a East Coast Ridge (And maybe a California Ridge?)

Hopefully we can cash in while there is some cold air, but we need some shifts from mother nature for that I believe


Can you put your location in your profile please?

I added it now
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1927 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:54 pm

One thing I'll say about this pattern (and I've said it before here this season) - this pattern is only SLIGHTLY different from one that could produce snow across southeast Texas and south Louisiana. We keep seeing the formation of west Gulf lows. That happens with a stationary front in the Gulf and the passage of an upper-level trof across Texas. The low forms off the lower TX coast when the vorticity max reaches El Paso. The issue is that the pattern is too progressive, too zonal. The cold (sub-freezing) air just cannot make it far enough to the south, so these lows that keep forming only produce rain. West Gulf lows usually only produce precip along coastal areas, not up north in the D-FW area.

For now, I'm not seeing any good indications of a significant change through January. That doesn't mean that the pattern can't change in February. I seem to remember a particularly cold recent February...

Oh, and I disagree with the statement that a dry cold is better than a humid 80 degrees. I'd take 80 degrees any day (preferably warmer).
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1928 Postby WinterMax » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:One thing I'll say about this pattern (and I've said it before here this season) - this pattern is only SLIGHTLY different from one that could produce snow across southeast Texas and south Louisiana. We keep seeing the formation of west Gulf lows. That happens with a stationary front in the Gulf and the passage of an upper-level trof across Texas. The low forms off the lower TX coast when the vorticity max reaches El Paso. The issue is that the pattern is too progressive, too zonal. The cold (sub-freezing) air just cannot make it far enough to the south, so these lows that keep forming only produce rain. West Gulf lows usually only produce precip along coastal areas, not up north in the D-FW area.

For now, I'm not seeing any good indications of a significant change through January. That doesn't mean that the pattern can't change in February. I seem to remember a particularly cold recent February...

Oh, and I disagree with the statement that a dry cold is better than a humid 80 degrees. I'd take 80 degrees any day (preferably warmer).


Seems strange in the long range gfs, there are times when the cold air doesn't even slide off to the east, just seems to hit a wall (no pun intended) in southern Missouri.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1929 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:32 pm

The issue is if we dont get a SSW soon, February will be polar opposite of last February with no winter weather to track, especially if the pna gets really negative as December. We have an upcoming -epo/wpo, so that will be our best opportunity.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1930 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:One thing I'll say about this pattern (and I've said it before here this season) - this pattern is only SLIGHTLY different from one that could produce snow across southeast Texas and south Louisiana. We keep seeing the formation of west Gulf lows. That happens with a stationary front in the Gulf and the passage of an upper-level trof across Texas. The low forms off the lower TX coast when the vorticity max reaches El Paso. The issue is that the pattern is too progressive, too zonal. The cold (sub-freezing) air just cannot make it far enough to the south, so these lows that keep forming only produce rain. West Gulf lows usually only produce precip along coastal areas, not up north in the D-FW area.

For now, I'm not seeing any good indications of a significant change through January. That doesn't mean that the pattern can't change in February. I seem to remember a particularly cold recent February...

Oh, and I disagree with the statement that a dry cold is better than a humid 80 degrees. I'd take 80 degrees any day (preferably warmer).


Is the pattern somewhat similar to Last January?

EDIT: Many Cold Lovers say that a dry cold is better than 80°F (And me without Humidity, the Humidity makes it feel like torture! :onfire: )
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1931 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:36 pm

I've decided to watch the PV once again.


Right now, the PV is very stable & strong in the North Pole, but the models are trying destabilize it with SSWs, only time will tell if that's case.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1932 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:17 pm

ICON continues to generate some colder air with rain and light snow over West TX this weekend

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1933 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:19 pm

If that weekend storm can get going sooner it could be interesting. GFS is close here but really bombs it out east of us of course. Near blizzard in the Carolinas. :spam:

But seriously the pattern has been everything waits til it's east of us
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1934 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:55 pm

Only a spread of a few hundred miles at a time.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1935 Postby harp » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:06 am

Can you explain? Thanks
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1936 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:09 am

harp wrote:Can you explain? Thanks


No cigar here, but if it trends a little more west and digging you make a shot at Dec 31st-Jan 1st, 2001 type storm. Better moisture tap. Also happened mid Jan 2018 (the storm the folks in SE Texas and Texarkana remembers but not as cold here) that took a similar trajectory.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1937 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:19 am

You can say what you will about the long term model runs. But they are consistently telling us a major arctic outbreak is poised to come into the US towards the mid-late January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1938 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:33 am

Ntxw wrote:Only a spread of a few hundred miles at a time.

https://i.imgur.com/WIjurzZ.gif


Definitely can't hate that trend here. It would be ironic because initially it looked interesting then went away
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1939 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:35 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Only a spread of a few hundred miles at a time.

https://i.imgur.com/WIjurzZ.gif


Definitely can't hate that trend here. It would be ironic because initially it looked interesting then went away


Very much did after disappearing. Even better trend for you in NE Oklahoma closer to PVa for snows. For us we need it to slow and then the STJ to really kick in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1940 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:08 am

6z GFS severe Arctic attack. Keep saying it folks, the models are hinting at it over and over the in the cycles of late both OPs and ENS.

Putting that wall to the test with a breakage watch.

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