Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

GFS has gone from zero snow here Saturday to maybe an inch or two

Still time to trend better

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would be reluctant to believe the days 14-16 GFS 12Z run (or any hour run). We've seen how poorly it does beyond about 4-5 days. Still looks like no snow for TX over the next 10 days (GFS, Euro, and Canadian). Brent will likely see some snow Saturday, but he lives half way to Canada.

it doesnt matter how often you tell people, they will stay post and talk about models 14-16 days out. I think now we can look at what leads to this setup, and that is within 6 days. No use in looking at the details but i think seeing the setup within 10 days is something to note.

[Iceresistance]

GFS has gone from zero snow here Saturday to maybe a couple inches

Still time to trend better

KFOR now has a 40% chance of Light Snow in OKC, chances are higher further east.

KOCO 5 has a 20% chance of Flurries for OKC

News on 6 (KOTV Tulsa) has a 30% of Wintry Mix for Tulsa

[Snowman65]

why is there so much talk about OK KS, and AR weather in this "Texas Weather" topic?? lol

[Texas Snow]

why is there so much talk about OK KS, and AR weather in this "Texas Weather" topic?? lol

A little doesn’t hurt anything but given the quantity of posts related to outside of Texas it might as well be renamed. Either that or limit posts to mostly about Texas.

[Iceresistance]

why is there so much talk about OK KS, and AR weather in this "Texas Weather" topic?? lol

Oklahoma & Kansas always gets the worst of the cold before Texas does . . .

[rwfromkansas]

I think a lot of our weather is linked, so I don’t mind. AR may be a stretch, but it’s fine. Keeps the thread moving.

[Cpv17]

I think a lot of our weather is linked, so I don’t mind. AR may be a stretch, but it’s fine. Keeps the thread moving.

I agree.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Member #14 looks really potent in the long range, the basic area is along & north of I-20 to I-40 for a LOT of snow

ETA: Okay, a foot of snow over Louisiana near the Gulf Coast? That sounds Illegal.

[harp]

18z GEFS Member #14 looks really potent in the long range, the basic area is along & north of I-20 to I-40 for a LOT of snow

ETA: Okay, a foot of snow over Louisiana near the Gulf Coast? That sounds Illegal.

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

[Haris]

why is there so much talk about OK KS, and AR weather in this "Texas Weather" topic?? lol

Big increase of that this winter

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Member #14 looks really potent in the long range, the basic area is along & north of I-20 to I-40 for a LOT of snow

ETA: Okay, a foot of snow over Louisiana near the Gulf Coast? That sounds Illegal.

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

At the Gulf Coast, (Also includes Alabama & Mississippi), it's near the end of the run, but YIKES!

[harp]

18z GEFS Member #14 looks really potent in the long range, the basic area is along & north of I-20 to I-40 for a LOT of snow

ETA: Okay, a foot of snow over Louisiana near the Gulf Coast? That sounds Illegal.

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

At the Gulf Coast, (Also includes Alabama & Mississippi), it's near the end of the run, but YIKES!

Not familiar with that model. How far does it go out?

[Iceresistance]

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

At the Gulf Coast, (Also includes Alabama & Mississippi), it's near the end of the run, but YIKES!

Not familiar with that model. How far does it go out?

Same as GFS

[txtwister78]

18z GEFS Member #14 looks really potent in the long range, the basic area is along & north of I-20 to I-40 for a LOT of snow

ETA: Okay, a foot of snow over Louisiana near the Gulf Coast? That sounds Illegal.

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

Think it's important to stress that when discussing model outputs past the 5 day window, it's critical to remember that precip types/amounts are often extremely suspect. In terms of ensembles, discussing one member of an entire suite should really be taken with a grain of salt. With those you look for a blend and a trend. You can bet things are going to change (especially beyond day 5) and they often do dramatically, so just a cautionary piece of advice on that front.

[orangeblood]

Unprecedented stay in MJO phase 7 for Dec/Jan, big factor so far this winter

[Cpv17]

A foot of snow where?? Louisiana?? What time frame?

At the Gulf Coast, (Also includes Alabama & Mississippi), it's near the end of the run, but YIKES!

Not familiar with that model. How far does it go out?

The GEFS is just the ensemble mean for the GFS model. When looking at the models past 5 days, it’s better to look at the ensembles. Operationals change a lot from run to run especially once you get past 5-7 days. The ensembles are usually more accurate and consistent in the medium to long range.

[Cpv17]

Unprecedented stay in MJO phase 7 for Dec/Jan, big factor so far this winter

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3Mo1CXMAY6zOM?format=png&name=900x900

I wonder if there’s a correlation between slow movement of the MJO and Arctic blasts?

[Golf7270]

It is really feast or famine when it comes to winter weather in the south.

[orangeblood]

Unprecedented stay in MJO phase 7 for Dec/Jan, big factor so far this winter

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3Mo1CXMAY6zOM?format=png&name=900x900

I wonder if there’s a correlation between slow movement of the MJO and Arctic blasts?

Depends on the phase…it’s been hitting a wall going into 8 but if it breaks through and continues slow movement we could have an incredible 30-45 day stretch. But if it swings back into 6 like Euro is trying to do, winter over. May get a decent 7-10 day period but it’ll lock back up into Western Canada if Phase 6 starts again.