Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

I think a lot of our weather is linked, so I don’t mind. AR may be a stretch, but it’s fine. Keeps the thread moving.

Yeah you gotta think especially this time of year Texas weather usually comes from the north lol. At least the kind of weather most of us here want

I will say I still post here because well I was in Texas til March and I still watch the weather down there. I've also posted about when the models have shown something interesting down there even when it didn't show anything here

[Ntxw]

Oklahoma and Texas mostly benefits from the same 500mb pattern. Perfectly reasonable! I would even say NW Louisiana, and southwest Arkansas too.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gfs continues the trend of inching this weekend’s system further west

[Ntxw]

0z gfs continues the trend of inching this weekend’s system further west

Nickel and dimed. Maybe by tomorrow night we'll get the vortmax to go from Denver -> El Paso from the models.

[Ntxw]

CMC is close..

[Haris]

CMC is close..

Light snow showers in Collin County. Def interesting. Although heavier rates will be well E as mentioned

[Ntxw]

CMC is close..

Light snow showers in Collin County. Def interesting. Although heavier rates will be well E as mentioned

It's been quite the show the past day how far west this has gone. Not just implications for us but further east the continued westward trend is amplified and would risk a cold rain in the Southeast and East coast.

[Brent]

CMC is close..

Light snow showers in Collin County. Def interesting. Although heavier rates will be well E as mentioned

It's been quite the show the past day how far west this has gone. Not just implications for us but further east the continued westward trend is amplified and would risk a cold rain in the Southeast and East coast.

Right? I remember when our weekend was sunny and dry and not even that cold! We were pretty close to average a couple days ago

GFS has me up to 2 inches now

[txtwister78]

CMC is close..

Yup....noticeable jog west from the 12z run.

[Haris]

CMC is close..

Light snow showers in Collin County. Def interesting. Although heavier rates will be well E as mentioned

It's been quite the show the past day how far west this has gone. Not just implications for us but further east the continued westward trend is amplified and would risk a cold rain in the Southeast and East coast.

Bad trends for Atlanta area lol. Ofc still super early but the pattern is incredibly volatile for sure. Agreed.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Light snow showers in Collin County. Def interesting. Although heavier rates will be well E as mentioned

It's been quite the show the past day how far west this has gone. Not just implications for us but further east the continued westward trend is amplified and would risk a cold rain in the Southeast and East coast.

Bad trends for Atlanta area lol. Ofc still super early but the pattern is incredibly volatile for sure. Agreed.

If you take away my snow…

[Haris]

It's been quite the show the past day how far west this has gone. Not just implications for us but further east the continued westward trend is amplified and would risk a cold rain in the Southeast and East coast.

Bad trends for Atlanta area lol. Ofc still super early but the pattern is incredibly volatile for sure. Agreed.

If you take away my snow…

haha nah you guys deserve it. I hope it pans out.

[Brent]

Bad trends for Atlanta area lol. Ofc still super early but the pattern is incredibly volatile for sure. Agreed.

If you take away my snow…

haha nah you guys deserve it. I hope it pans out.

Lol maybe we can all cash in though I dunno about Atlanta even earlier I had doubts and made a post about it. They always shift NW over there just usually not this soon unfortunately. I lived near there 25 years I saw it more times than I care to remember. Heck even that January 2014 storm that shutdown the city yeah it shifted NW

[Cpv17]

0z GFS there’s plenty of cold but it’s all east of Texas.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS there’s plenty of cold but it’s all east of Texas.

Yeah the trough orientation is NW to SE. It'll change twenty more times beyond 240hrs but as long as it has the cold dome I wouldn't worry about it being phantom. Better to dislocate rather that flip hot.

Another note CMC has it's first touch with said cold dome in NW Can.

[harp]

It’s very frustrating trying to figure out what’s happening in the longer term. They flip flop so much after 6-7 days. Yesterday evening and night showed an arctic plunge south. Today, it’s saying “What are you talking about, I never said that??!!”

[Cerlin]

Currently in Colorado Springs on a mini vacation before school starts back up. Definitely planned this to see some snow but it figures that the 4 days I’m here are the absolute driest they could be. I was able to go on top of Pikes Peak in January with little trouble so I’ll consider it a small victory. I’ve gotten to see some snow built up further in the rockies too. Been interesting to catch up on the discussion from the last few days but the long term signals are intriguing me, especially from the ensembles. EPS and GEFS look as confident as they did last year, which is positive to me. Also, the weekend’s set up looks quite interesting too—it’ll be interesting to see if that trough will pull back a little bit and allow NTX to cash in on some snow, albeit even if only flurries. Fun times ahead folks!

[Iceresistance]

Unprecedented stay in MJO phase 7 for Dec/Jan, big factor so far this winter

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3Mo1CXMAY6zOM?format=png&name=900x900

Is this basically the Arctic Buildup phase if I recall correctly?

Either way, the cold wave potential is huge.

[Iceresistance]

I'm going to try to lock in the 6z RDPS! (RGEM)


I do want to mention that this storm system is just shy of the Mesoscale models, most of them will come into play later today & eventually tomorrow

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 has a 30% chance of blowing snow on Saturday, a dusting here is expected, but 1-3 inches is expected in NE Oklahoma. (1-2 in Tulsa)