Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

The 10:1 Ratio slightly inflated according to the NAM, & since the storm has not yet finished with that area, the full totals may never be known for now.

Yeah the snow isn't even close to over there

For what it's worth the NWS has less than an inch til you get into Arkansas

If it continues west and amps more of Arkansas may stay rain longer.

The GFS is still a couple inches max but I can't help but notice the much higher totals in Northern Arkansas have nudged closer

[3090]

What's to be part of our system is spinning off the west coast.

https://i.imgur.com/MaTxwv8.gif

Of note the gradual progression for this system to be amplified has really taken it to become a beast on the models. Big cutoff ULL low.

Which system? I see 3!

[Iceresistance]

What's to be part of our system is spinning off the west coast.

https://i.imgur.com/MaTxwv8.gif

Of note the gradual progression for this system to be amplified has really taken it to become a beast on the models. Big cutoff ULL low.

Which system? I see 3!

The one in the middle, heading towards Washington State

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

[Brent]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

I mean look how much this storm has shifted we had a sunny weekend the other day

[wxman57]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

I mean look how much this storm has shifted we had a sunny weekend the other day

That's a relatively small-scale feature. Looks like the GFS was first predicting snow there Monday night. It has been shifting west with this feature. Major feature is the giant upper-level low that both the GFS, CMC, & Euro build over the Aleutians & western Alaska by day 10. That's pumping a lot of warm air northward into Alaska and western Canada. That's the reason the models move the center of cold air east to SE Canada and the Great Lakes. Again, not a sign of extreme cold for Texas (or OK) in the long range.

[rwfromkansas]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

[Iceresistance]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

https://na.cdn.beatsaver.com/ef8566d228759503c0c5427ac4597e265ba21f8c.jpg

What is that? I don't get it.

[Edwards Limestone]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

https://na.cdn.beatsaver.com/ef8566d228759503c0c5427ac4597e265ba21f8c.jpg

What is that? I don't get it.

I think we are seeing a real life generational gap here

It's from Saturday Night Live.

[Iceresistance]

The CMC & RGEM really don't like each other right now.

[rwfromkansas]

12Z GFS says no snow for TX the next couple of weeks. Cold air center shifting to SE Canada. Big warm-up in Alaska and western Canada. Not a sign of impending frigid temps in Texas. It appears we've already see our coldest days in January on the 2nd-3rd. Of course, you can't trust the GFS beyond 5-7 days, so maybe we'll be in a deep freeze with a foot of snow the last week of January?

https://na.cdn.beatsaver.com/ef8566d228759503c0c5427ac4597e265ba21f8c.jpg

What is that? I don't get it.

It's an old SNL skit. I tried to be funny but failed apparently.

Hopefully, the models will change for cold later. It's still early, I think something will go right over the next 30 days.

[HockeyTx82]

https://na.cdn.beatsaver.com/ef8566d228759503c0c5427ac4597e265ba21f8c.jpg

What is that? I don't get it.

It's an old SNL skit. I tried to be funny but failed apparently.

Hopefully, the models will change for cold later. It's still early, I think something will go right over the next 30 days.

Anyone 30 and up I'm sure got it. I did for what it's worth.

I live in a van down by the river......

[orangeblood]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

[txtwister78]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1641988800/1642323600-Oki0b5MQt0U.png

As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier. All linked at this point if you want that west trend/light snow potential to come to fruition at least.

[Ntxw]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1641988800/1642323600-Oki0b5MQt0U.png

As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier.

Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.

For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away .

Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.

[Ntxw]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1641988800/1642323600-Oki0b5MQt0U.png

This 500mb separation we were hoping for with the New Year's weekend system but went the opposite way. Maybe balancing act .

[Ntxw]

Here's the trend from the Euro of the past several runs.

[txtwister78]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1641988800/1642323600-Oki0b5MQt0U.png

As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier.

Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.

For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away .

Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.

It's definitely had its bad moments for sure as of late and because of that, I think we can put the "gold standard" thing to rest now (at least for the time being). GFS definitely sees the cold better at the medium range in my opinion.

[Ntxw]

Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.

Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.

[orangeblood]

Southwest Trend continues on all Globals, CMC has the wrap around light snow...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1641988800/1642323600-Oki0b5MQt0U.png

As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier.

Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.

For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away .

Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.

Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation