Incredible, when will it stop ??? Not even to the 72 hr mark so it still has some room
Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Incredible, when will it stop ??? Not even to the 72 hr mark so it still has some room
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
So, your saying there’s a chance…Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.
Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:So, your saying there’s a chance…Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.
Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
Too far out

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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:So, your saying there’s a chance…Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.
Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
Yep, the difference b/w a Major Arctic Outbreak for the eastern 2/3rds vs eastern 1/3rd of the US can come down to just minor differences upstream with this type of pattern. The potential is there and that's a big improvement from December!!!
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
rwfromkansas wrote:Iceresistance wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:
https://na.cdn.beatsaver.com/ef8566d228759503c0c5427ac4597e265ba21f8c.jpg
What is that? I don't get it.
It's an old SNL skit. I tried to be funny but failed apparently.
Hopefully, the models will change for cold later. It's still early, I think something will go right over the next 30 days.
No, it was for sure funny.
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.
Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
Euro & Canadian models are actually somewhat similar at +240 hours.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
For the first time the TWC app mentions accumulation here Saturday
"around an inch" it just had flurries or snow showers before this

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:txtwister78 wrote:
As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier.
Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.
For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away.
Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.
Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation
And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.
I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.
For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away.
Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.
Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation
And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.
I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!
PV Crash into the Great Lakes it appears, that is a big signal at this range! Explains the big move in Natural Gas prices over the past few days and would imagine that will continue looking at these maps

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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Haris wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation
And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.
I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!
Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:orangeblood wrote:Haris wrote:
And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.
I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!
Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line)



EPO looks incredible as well...

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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:orangeblood wrote:
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!
Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line)![]()
![]()
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png
EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png
All I can say here is WOW!
Either way, is there a GIF on what it looks like with Precip & Temperatures if the AO & EPO gets that low!?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:
Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.
Got to admit, I read Wxman 57’s posts—excellent and on target as they usually are, notwithstanding—in the teacher voice from “A Charlie Brown Christmas.”
“Still … wah wah woh wah wah … no snow for you Texas … wah wah woh wah wah … barely even a freeze … wah wah woh wah wah … my wall is holding, how dare you doubt it … wah wah woh wah wah … the models are worthless unless they show warm bicycle riding weather, don’t you know that?!?”
Where’s Portastorm when you need him?

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snowman wrote:wxman57 wrote:
Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.
Got to admit, I read Wxman 57’s posts—excellent and on target as they usually are, notwithstanding—in the teacher voice from “A Charlie Brown Christmas.”
“Still … wah wah woh wah wah … no snow for you Texas … wah wah woh wah wah … barely even a freeze … wah wah woh wah wah … my wall is holding, how dare you doubt it … wah wah woh wah wah … the models are worthless unless they show warm bicycle riding weather, don’t you know that?!?”
He speaks the truth though. The EC doesn't show it, at least not much. But that doesn't mean it can't change within 2 days even

GEFS has been shifting west with the trof so I think the GFS has gone about as far east as it can go beyond 200hrs. It'll start tugging west again after starting there a day ago. EPS is about as good as you can ask for, might be a risk of winter storm around Jan 20th+/- still. Need the cold and STJ to connect.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:orangeblood wrote:
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!
Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line)![]()
![]()
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png
EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png
Can you explain what this shows? Thank you in advance.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
harp wrote:orangeblood wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!
Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line)![]()
![]()
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png
EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png
Can you explain what this shows? Thank you in advance.
The AO became so negative, that it went off the scales!
The EPO is expected to be strongly Negative in the same timeframe as well, something huge could be coming. (And to make things even crazier, it's within 300 hours!

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it
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Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
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- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
kingwood_tx1999 wrote:They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it
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Yeah, when did inside 300 hours become some kind of barometer? The is still in the Disney section of fantasyland.
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"


- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snow wrote:kingwood_tx1999 wrote:They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it
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Yeah, when did inside 300 hours become some kind of barometer? The is still in the Disney section of fantasyland.
Within 300 hours usually means that the chance of something that occurs is higher than beyond 300 hours, but even then, the odds are still low.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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