Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2101 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:Here's the trend from the Euro of the past several runs.

https://i.imgur.com/wWSZiOQ.gif


Incredible, when will it stop ??? Not even to the 72 hr mark so it still has some room
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2102 Postby harp » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.

Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
So, your saying there’s a chance… ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2103 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:53 pm

harp wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.

Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
So, your saying there’s a chance… ;)


Too far out :lol:. Bubba's Pacific jet determines the fate. Jet retractions vs extensions in small shifts has consequences downstream between trof or ridge.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2104 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:02 pm

harp wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.

Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.
So, your saying there’s a chance… ;)


Yep, the difference b/w a Major Arctic Outbreak for the eastern 2/3rds vs eastern 1/3rd of the US can come down to just minor differences upstream with this type of pattern. The potential is there and that's a big improvement from December!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2105 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:Here's the trend from the Euro of the past several runs.

https://i.imgur.com/wWSZiOQ.gif


Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2106 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:12 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:

What is that? I don't get it.


It's an old SNL skit. I tried to be funny but failed apparently.

Hopefully, the models will change for cold later. It's still early, I think something will go right over the next 30 days.

No, it was for sure funny.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2107 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:Also some significant differences between the models from about 192-240 hrs. GFS is favoring Eastern trof/cold and the CMC is more West open trof and strong HP. Euro somewhat splits the difference.

Though both CMC and Euro has a pretty big HP sliding down.


Euro & Canadian models are actually somewhat similar at +240 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2108 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:33 pm

For the first time the TWC app mentions accumulation here Saturday :spam: "around an inch" it just had flurries or snow showers before this
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2109 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:42 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
As does the cutter solution I mentioned earlier.


Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.

For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away :lol:.

Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.


Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation


And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.

I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2110 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:47 pm

Haris wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Euro is also trending deeper. TBH it's been kind of lagging the other guidance. I've just not put too much weight on it's medium range lately either, I don't know what happened to this model. Perhaps the others have just caught up.

For once we're trending in the right direction with a system and not away :lol:.

Gonna be some upset people expecting snow on the coastal plain. Apps runner.


Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation


And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.

I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol


And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!

PV Crash into the Great Lakes it appears, that is a big signal at this range! Explains the big move in Natural Gas prices over the past few days and would imagine that will continue looking at these maps

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2111 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:55 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Nashville, TN looks to be the jackpot winner in this pattern....6+ inch storm last week another 6+ this week. Pretty amazing for a place at 36 N latitude less than 600 ft elevation


And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.

I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol


And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!


I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!

Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2112 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:05 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Haris wrote:
And Nashville only averages 4.7” so they’re about to that maybe 4x that this winter. Wild.

I say only in relative to this winter but 4.7 is way more than Austin’s measly 0.6” lol


And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!


I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!

Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png


Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line) :double: :double:

Image

EPO looks incredible as well...
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2113 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:08 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!


I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!

Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png


Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line) :double: :double:

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png

EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png


All I can say here is WOW!

Either way, is there a GIF on what it looks like with Precip & Temperatures if the AO & EPO gets that low!?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2114 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Here's the trend from the Euro of the past several runs.

https://i.imgur.com/wWSZiOQ.gif


Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.


Got to admit, I read Wxman 57’s posts—excellent and on target as they usually are, notwithstanding—in the teacher voice from “A Charlie Brown Christmas.”

“Still … wah wah woh wah wah … no snow for you Texas … wah wah woh wah wah … barely even a freeze … wah wah woh wah wah … my wall is holding, how dare you doubt it … wah wah woh wah wah … the models are worthless unless they show warm bicycle riding weather, don’t you know that?!?”

Where’s Portastorm when you need him?

:D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2115 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:15 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Here's the trend from the Euro of the past several runs.

https://i.imgur.com/wWSZiOQ.gif


Still, the EC has no snow for Texas over the next 10 days. It does indicate a light freeze for the D-FW area on the 21st.


Got to admit, I read Wxman 57’s posts—excellent and on target as they usually are, notwithstanding—in the teacher voice from “A Charlie Brown Christmas.”

“Still … wah wah woh wah wah … no snow for you Texas … wah wah woh wah wah … barely even a freeze … wah wah woh wah wah … my wall is holding, how dare you doubt it … wah wah woh wah wah … the models are worthless unless they show warm bicycle riding weather, don’t you know that?!?”

:D


He speaks the truth though. The EC doesn't show it, at least not much. But that doesn't mean it can't change within 2 days even :lol:. He's a good sport but as some have spoken, the models won't show it until they show it.

GEFS has been shifting west with the trof so I think the GFS has gone about as far east as it can go beyond 200hrs. It'll start tugging west again after starting there a day ago. EPS is about as good as you can ask for, might be a risk of winter storm around Jan 20th+/- still. Need the cold and STJ to connect.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2116 Postby harp » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:22 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
And this pattern is just getting started...something big is building in the 8-14 day range on the Ensembles. MAJOR WINTER STORM potential on the table for a big swath of the US!!


I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!

Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png


Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line) :double: :double:

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png

EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png

Can you explain what this shows? Thank you in advance.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2117 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:26 pm

harp wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
I've noticed that on the GEFS, Alaska was WAY Above normal when this happens!

Also, the EPO is looking extremely Negative for quite some time, this is at the end of the 12z GEFS Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Take-a-look-at-this.png


Check out the GFS Control Run's AO Forecast in week 2 (Blue Line) :double: :double:

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1641988800-kmOcvNS2u7ogrb2.png

EPO looks incredible as well...
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1641988800-u5KikwZGiIIgrb2.png

Can you explain what this shows? Thank you in advance.


The AO became so negative, that it went off the scales!

The EPO is expected to be strongly Negative in the same timeframe as well, something huge could be coming. (And to make things even crazier, it's within 300 hours! :eek: )
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2118 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:28 pm

They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2119 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:37 pm

kingwood_tx1999 wrote:They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


Yeah, when did inside 300 hours become some kind of barometer? The is still in the Disney section of fantasyland.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2120 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:49 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
kingwood_tx1999 wrote:They always show something big happening in the long range and it never pans out..I'm not buying it

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


Yeah, when did inside 300 hours become some kind of barometer? The is still in the Disney section of fantasyland.


Within 300 hours usually means that the chance of something that occurs is higher than beyond 300 hours, but even then, the odds are still low.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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