Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2161 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:22 am

rwfromkansas wrote:I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.


This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2162 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:27 am

I'm now expecting highs below 30 Saturday.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2163 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:29 am

Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.


This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.


That is unusual to not have to battle the 540 line in Texas. Admittedly, I had not looked at recent models, just was going by conversation here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2164 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:41 am

Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.


This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.


The 540 thickness line may get close to SE TX, but surface temps will be in the 40s and the air aloft will hold less moisture than the middle of the Sahara.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2165 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:47 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.


This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.


That is unusual to not have to battle the 540 line in Texas. Admittedly, I had not looked at recent models, just was going by conversation here.


It can be in shallow Arctic air mass. This one is deep ULL coming down from the North. It's colder aloft than at the surface.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2166 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:52 am

wxman57 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.


This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.


The 540 thickness line may get close to SE TX, but surface temps will be in the 40s and the air aloft will hold less moisture than the middle of the Sahara.


Every model I’ve looked at has the 540 line into southeast TX. This airmass will be much colder aloft than at the surface but it’ll still be cold at the surface. I’m expecting mid to upper 20 wind chills for most of southeast TX Sunday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2167 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:10 am

Cpv17 wrote:Every model I’ve looked at has the 540 line into southeast TX. This airmass will be much colder aloft than at the surface but it’ll still be cold at the surface. I’m expecting mid to upper 20 wind chills for most of southeast TX Sunday morning.


The 540 line reaching SE TX often means a possible light freeze, depending on it's position. In this case, we are looking at lows in the mid 30s and windy with a high in the low 50s. Generally, that's about 10 deg below normal. By the next day, temps will be a little above normal. Temps into the 70s by Tuesday. Typical winter weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2168 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:27 am

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....edit: some ensemble support for this so definitely something to "watch" going forward.

Image

Image
Last edited by txtwister78 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2169 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:38 am

The Weekend Storm system has came ashore over Washington State, it will produce snow in the Northern, Central, & parts of Southern Plains this weekend

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https://s10.gifyu.com/images/GOES17-WUS-08-1000x1000.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2170 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:38 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2171 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:49 am



For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2172 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:50 am

12z GFS has trended the Weekend system a little more west than 6z
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2173 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:53 am

Iceresistance wrote:


For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.


I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2174 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:58 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg


For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.


I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.


I'm having issues of late too on my phone while on data.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2175 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:59 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.


I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.


I'm having issues of late too on my phone while on data.


He had Lucy teeing up for the kick.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2176 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:01 pm

12k NAM looks like winter weather mayhem for the Atlanta metro area. 2-3 inches of snow (maybe 4) along with probably 1" of ice and maybe 0.5" of sleet. Basically the February snow storm from last year but all at once and not extremely cold. The surface level temps look to fluctuate between 31-34F and upper levels look to fluctuate as well so precipitation changeovers should happen. Of course we're still 3 days out but if this NAM run verifies it'll be catastrophic most likely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2177 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:20 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg


For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.


I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.


I'm pretty sure the network administrators could have blocked the site on school wifi. When on data they can't block websites since they can't access you cellular data. I'm pretty sure if they have blocked an image hosting website like Imgur, it won't show the image since the image is trying to be loaded from the Imgur post. That's why it may be showing a box with "Image" next to it.
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Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2178 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:23 pm

txtwister78 wrote:I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....edit: some ensemble support for this so definitely something to "watch" going forward.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1642075200/1642744800-CIMU6B4EPEk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642777200-P6cJdtdroeg.png


Yep, need several upper level features from both the Polar and Pacific jets to come together but January 20-21st looks like the first potential big winter weather event for Texas of the season! Not too confident yet but ensembles (and occasionally Globals) continue to hone in on Jan. 20-24th for a potential Major southern/eastern US storm system
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2179 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:26 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.


I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.


I'm pretty sure the network administrators could have blocked the site on school wifi. When on data they can't block websites since they can't access you cellular data. I'm pretty sure if they have blocked an image hosting website like Imgur, it won't show the image since the image is trying to be loaded from the Imgur post. That's why it may be showing a box with "Image" next to it.

My problem does not have a blocked site, I could have images that can't load anymore here right now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2180 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:40 pm

I know there’s been a lot of talk about our source region warming up in the coming weeks, but looking at the runs that actually go that far out (I.e, gfs) I see no consistency to either credit nor discredit that notion. Obviously, there are plenty on here that know more than I do, in which case, keep at it because I love reading your posts, but I’m personally done playing the long range guessing game until there’s some semblance of consistency.
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