Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2181 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:57 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I know there’s been a lot of talk about our source region warming up in the coming weeks, but looking at the runs that actually go that far out (I.e, gfs) I see no consistency to either credit nor discredit that notion. Obviously, there are plenty on here that know more than I do, in which case, keep at it because I love reading your posts, but I’m personally done playing the long range guessing game until there’s some semblance of consistency.


Back in December I remember posting that during Aleutian low pattern and +PNA wxman57 is notorious for chiming in that source region will be warm. Of course it will be! Ridge in West Canada (complete opposite when there's a trough there). It's a better delivery pattern. North and Central Canada is where the cold then sits, but you need a large carving trough in the southwest to pull it back. You do need cross polar flow to seed it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2182 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:01 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I know there’s been a lot of talk about our source region warming up in the coming weeks, but looking at the runs that actually go that far out (I.e, gfs) I see no consistency to either credit nor discredit that notion. Obviously, there are plenty on here that know more than I do, in which case, keep at it because I love reading your posts, but I’m personally done playing the long range guessing game until there’s some semblance of consistency.


It's the Ensembles that are getting most of the talk here, especially the Euro Ensembles & GEFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2183 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:07 pm

The Weather Channel comin in with the heartache. :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2184 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:I know there’s been a lot of talk about our source region warming up in the coming weeks, but looking at the runs that actually go that far out (I.e, gfs) I see no consistency to either credit nor discredit that notion. Obviously, there are plenty on here that know more than I do, in which case, keep at it because I love reading your posts, but I’m personally done playing the long range guessing game until there’s some semblance of consistency.


Back in December I remember posting that during Aleutian low pattern and +PNA wxman57 is notorious for chiming in that source region will be warm. Of course it will be! Ridge in West Canada (complete opposite when there's a trough there). It's a better delivery pattern. North and Central Canada is where the cold then sits, but you need a large carving trough in the southwest to pull it back. You do need cross polar flow to seed it.


As we've be saying for several days now, this pattern has a lot of potential to deliver several bouts of winter weather across the southern US....the long range ENS map looks great, Pacific Jet cutting underneath across So Cal supplying Pacific moisture while the Polar Jet is supplying a never ending supply of cold air from the Arctic Circle. Doesn't mean everything will come together but give me this setup over the Cold locked up in Western Canada look like we had in December!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2185 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:16 pm

Waiting on the Euro to finish up. I think nat gas traders jumped the gun yesterday. They were likely responding to the Euro OP and the ensembles. Too early to lock this cold blast in, but it looks promising.

I also feel like we have been saying that for a month now lol. Things have def changed, not a torch but not seeing the insane cold yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2186 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:23 pm



Lol those outlooks are so horrible. I stopped paying attention to them several years ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2187 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:26 pm

Cpv17 wrote:


Lol those outlooks are so horrible. I stopped paying attention to them several years ago.

Oh I know! I honestly remember last year it changed 3 times in a 2 week period. Each time showing something completely different. I basically posted it to break up the monotony and give us a laugh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2188 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:27 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Waiting on the Euro to finish up. I think nat gas traders jumped the gun yesterday. They were likely responding to the Euro OP and the ensembles. Too early to lock this cold blast in, but it looks promising.

I also feel like we have been saying that for a month now lol. Things have def changed, not a torch but not seeing the insane cold yet.

This is exactly what I was getting at in my previous post. I will 1000% take the pattern the ensembles are showing over December, but they show neither a torch nor an icebox, and the deterministic models aren’t what I would call conclusive in any regard. I am skeptical that we’ll see anything significant before February, but I would love to be proven wrong. I have all my chips in on February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2189 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:


Lol those outlooks are so horrible. I stopped paying attention to them several years ago.


Yeah, long range forecasting is a literal guessing game...way too many factors go into it that its literally impossible to predict with consistent accuracy that far out. You'll occasionally get it right but over the long haul, you'll be wrong way more often than right
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2190 Postby Haris » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:53 pm

Euro is close to bring a winter event to TX. Has a system. Need more moisture and cold but the pieces are closer together than 0z and trended towards GFS. Grasping at straws here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2191 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:56 pm

12z Euro flips significantly from its previous 0z output showing a pattern setup more in line with GFS for late next week. Definitely a "bears watch" situation.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2192 Postby Haris » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:58 pm

txtwister78 wrote:12z Euro flips significantly from its previous 0z output showing a pattern setup more in line with GFS for late next week. Definitely a "bears watch" situation.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_c_anom/1642075200/1642723200-vcl0kL9ZKHU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642852800-7vf9kYmqi5w.png


You never want to be in the bulls eye anyway 7 days out. Good start
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2193 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:58 pm

Haris wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:12z Euro flips significantly from its previous 0z output showing a pattern setup more in line with GFS for late next week. Definitely a "bears watch" situation.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_c_anom/1642075200/1642723200-vcl0kL9ZKHU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642852800-7vf9kYmqi5w.png


You never want to be in the bulls eye anyway 7 days out. Good start


True that
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2194 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:03 pm

Haris wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:12z Euro flips significantly from its previous 0z output showing a pattern setup more in line with GFS for late next week. Definitely a "bears watch" situation.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_c_anom/1642075200/1642723200-vcl0kL9ZKHU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642852800-7vf9kYmqi5w.png


You never want to be in the bulls eye anyway 7 days out. Good start



Hahahaha, i literally tell this to all my friends except in reverse for hurricane season. "You want to be directly in the path 7 days out"
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2195 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:06 pm

Saturday will be interesting here. 1-3" of snow (tho some globals are lower) will be possible over central Kansas with models showing 40-50 mph winds. Could get pretty crazy here unless things shift back east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2196 Postby WinterMax » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:14 pm

GfS calling for an ice storm in south central Louisiana, at 200 hours. Looks fake to.me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2197 Postby harp » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:16 pm

WinterMax wrote:GfS calling for an ice storm in south central Louisiana, at 200 hours. Looks fake to.me.
Fake?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2198 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:19 pm

harp wrote:
WinterMax wrote:GfS calling for an ice storm in south central Louisiana, at 200 hours. Looks fake to.me.
Fake?


He likely means that it's unlikely to happen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2199 Postby Golf7270 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:22 pm

I mentioned this a week ago. I feel like the trough is too far east for most. Until that changes, it looks rather bleak for winter weather imo. It would seem like the stj could throw moisture into the residual cold air, but it hasn't indicated that with an organized system as of yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2200 Postby WinterMax » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:36 pm

harp wrote:
WinterMax wrote:GfS calling for an ice storm in south central Louisiana, at 200 hours. Looks fake to.me.
Fake?



Yeah temps do not look to be cold enough to support freezing rain. But as I've said many times, I'm probably the least knowledgeable member in this forum. All I have is many years looking at weather Lol
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