Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

CPC has updated their Temperature Outlooks, the Moderate risk of Way-Below Normal Temperatures is getting closer . . .

[WinterMax]

Saturday will be interesting here. 1-3" of snow (tho some globals are lower) will be possible over central Kansas with models showing 40-50 mph winds. Could get pretty crazy here unless things shift back east.

I hope you have a wild blizzard. Would be so cool to see.

[Texas Snow]

FWD added chance flurries from noon to midnight Saturday for much of DFW. Much different that the clear/dry of a couple days ago. Gonna be cold and windy either way. Love it.

[TropicalTundra]

FWD added chance flurries from noon to midnight Saturday for much of DFW. Much different that the clear/dry of a couple days ago. Gonna be cold and windy either way. Love it.

The last time I checked this noon I only saw Sherman/Denison with any form of winter weather on Saturday with just a mix. Could this storm maybe shift down farther down south to maybe Central Texas or will this be confined to North of I-20?

[Cpv17]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

[Iceresistance]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

The PNA is already Positive right now, it's expected to stay mostly that way for a while.

[Cpv17]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

The PNA is already Positive right now, it's expected to stay mostly that way for a while.

What? I could’ve sworn just a few days ago someone posted a chart that said it was going to remain around neutral. Well if it’s too positive, we can forget about any deep cold around here. I guess it depends how far positive it is.

[txtwister78]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

A positive PNA is not really the issue. In fact if you want a more active southern jet across TX, we need a neutral to positive PNA. In terms of colder air, usually a positive PNA can help us (builds high pressure up across western Canada and Alaska) that allows for cooler than normal conditions across the south and SE. The PNA influence however is not the end all be all with respect to our weather down here, as the other teleconnections also play a factor (NAO, AO, EPO etc).

Getting everything to align of course is the challenge (MJO phases for example), especially in a La Nina pattern that is naturally tailored toward a warmer than normal & dryer than normal outlook overall across our region. The resistance can be tough to overcome as we've seen thus far, but I think these last two weeks of January are going to be our window if there is to be some "real winter" across TX. Who knows beyond that into February, but with an active southern jet you don't need brutal arctic airmasses to generate snow. A lot can happen at the upper levels if you get the right system to come along (closed low etc). The system being shown by models for late next week is a prime example of that (despite it being 7 days out).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Turns out im going to have a major ice storm before the snow. yikes

[Golf7270]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

A positive PNA is not really the issue. In fact if you want a more active southern jet across TX, we need a neutral to positive PNA. In terms of colder air, usually a positive PNA can help us (builds high pressure up across western Canada and Alaska) that allows for cooler than normal conditions across the south and SE. The PNA influence however is not the end all be all with respect to our weather down here, as the other teleconnections also play a factor (NAO, AO, EPO etc).

Getting everything to align of course is the challenge (MJO phases for example), especially in a La Nina pattern that is naturally tailored toward a warmer than normal & dryer than normal outlook overall across our region. The resistance can be tough to overcome as we've seen thus far, but I think these last two weeks of January are going to be our window if there is to be some "real winter" across TX. Who knows beyond that into February, but with an active southern jet you don't need brutal arctic airmasses to generate snow. A lot can happen at the upper levels if you get the right system to come along (closed low etc). The system being shown by models for late next week is a prime example of that (despite it being 7 days out).

The pna being positive usually does put the trough further east for the most part kinda like a phase 8 mjo. About two weeks left to try to cash in imo. If the mjo goes into 3-5 phases without strong blocking to counteract it, its game over.

[Cpv17]

The PNA must be going positive to have all that cold air mostly go east of us.

A positive PNA is not really the issue. In fact if you want a more active southern jet across TX, we need a neutral to positive PNA. In terms of colder air, usually a positive PNA can help us (builds high pressure up across western Canada and Alaska) that allows for cooler than normal conditions across the south and SE. The PNA influence however is not the end all be all with respect to our weather down here, as the other teleconnections also play a factor (NAO, AO, EPO etc).

Getting everything to align of course is the challenge (MJO phases for example), especially in a La Nina pattern that is naturally tailored toward a warmer than normal & dryer than normal outlook overall across our region. The resistance can be tough to overcome as we've seen thus far, but I think these last two weeks of January are going to be our window if there is to be some "real winter" across TX. Who knows beyond that into February, but with an active southern jet you don't need brutal arctic airmasses to generate snow. A lot can happen at the upper levels if you get the right system to come along (closed low etc). The system being shown by models for late next week is a prime example of that (despite it being 7 days out).

The pna being positive usually does put the trough further east for the most part kinda like a phase 8 mjo. About two weeks left to try to cash in imo. If the mjo goes into 3-5 phases without strong blocking to counteract it, its game over.

A +PNA is usually still pretty good for your location.

[WinterMax]

I was gonna snow chase up in Arkansas, but came down with high fever and aching all over, yep, i finally got it.

[Cpv17]

I was gonna snow chase up in Arkansas, but came down with high fever and aching all over, yep, i finally got it.

I’m sorry to hear that. How’s your breathing going? And your sense of smell and taste?

[WinterMax]

I was gonna snow chase up in Arkansas, but came down with high fever and aching all over, yep, i finally got it.

I’m sorry to hear that. How’s your breathing going? And your sense of smell and taste?

Nose stopped up, up and down fever, body aches headache and somewhat dizzy. But i don't feel that i am struggling to breath, so thats a good sign. Thanks for asking.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR now has a 80% Chance of Light Snow with a High of 28°F on Saturday

[PTrackerLA]

I was gonna snow chase up in Arkansas, but came down with high fever and aching all over, yep, i finally got it.

I’m sorry to hear that. How’s your breathing going? And your sense of smell and taste?

Nose stopped up, up and down fever, body aches headache and somewhat dizzy. But i don't feel that i am struggling to breath, so thats a good sign. Thanks for asking.

Hope you have a speedy recovery. You should have more chances to chase snow before this winter is over. My entire extended family experienced illness after gathering for Christmas but it was mild for all vaxxed or unvaxxed. I'm boosted and was unwell for only about 48 hours but I'm just happy to have a healthy household again (with 2 kids under 5) but no doubt it has touched almost everyone in south LA the past 3 weeks.

[bubba hotep]

Extreme NE burbs and areas NE jackpotting??? (I would take that 1" IMBY )

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022011400/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

[WacoWx]

Now THATS a positive sign for DFW!

[Haris]

Extreme NE burbs and areas NE jackpotting??? (I would take that 1" IMBY )

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022011400/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

RAP gets some snow into Dallas too. Also peak daytime. Hopefully pans out

[Brent]

Extreme NE burbs and areas NE jackpotting??? (I would take that 1" IMBY )

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022011400/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Even up here that's on the higher end of the forecasts I've seen today. Most are saying a dusting to half inch maybe. Also daytime and windy