Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gpsnowman]

Extreme NE burbs and areas NE jackpotting??? (I would take that 1" IMBY )

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022011400/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

I'll take my 2 tenths of an inch and see ya'll on Monday.

[Iceresistance]

Extreme NE burbs and areas NE jackpotting??? (I would take that 1" IMBY )

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022011400/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

1-1.5 inches in my area? That's the Central Oklahoma Jackpot for me!

[rwfromkansas]

Just trend a bit more west…

[InfernoFlameCat]

Forecast of 6-12 inches for me right now! I’m in the Ga mountains atm. I haven’t seen snow for too long!

[Iceresistance]

Just trend a bit more west…

0z NAM confirms that.

[Brent]

Just trend a bit more west…

0z NAM confirms that.

Yeah over 2 inches here on the NAM

I'm so ready I've about had enough of models. It feels like we've been watching this for a week already

[SouthernMet]

6z HRRR puts DFW back in play for accumulating snow Saturday. Biggest West shift we’ve seen from any data so far… Let’s see if other mesoscale models trend this way.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV not buying that the upper low will bring snow to NE TX tomorrow evening. They do mention possible change over near Red River tomorrow morning.

[bubba hotep]

SHV not buying that the upper low will bring snow to NE TX tomorrow evening. They do mention possible change over near Red River tomorrow morning.

Right now it looks like HRRR vs. the World lol

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV not buying that the upper low will bring snow to NE TX tomorrow evening. They do mention possible change over near Red River tomorrow morning.

Right now it looks like HRRR vs. the World lol

NE TX struggles to get cold fast when the source is centered further east because of the Ouachita Mountains. I'd bet on no snow until after dark at best. But upper lows can always surprise and if it finds a layer of moisture further west into NE TX there could be some light snow accumulations.

[Bhow]

GFS continues to tease the Austin area for next Friday. Best run so far

[Iceresistance]

Comparison at +24 hours (12z) vs 6z HRRR

12z

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WOW.png

6z Comparison

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/6z-Comparsion.png

(I made a typo, it was supposed to spell 'Comparison')

[orangeblood]

GFS Ensembles are really starting to light up for Next Thursday/Friday time frame...most active I've seen the ensembles so far this season inside 1 week. Need to see the Euro/CMC trend towards the GFS soon before we can take this too seriously!

[InfernoFlameCat]

With y’all’s luck ensemble #2 is most likely to occur.

[Cpv17]

GFS Ensembles are really starting to light up for Next Thursday/Friday time frame...most active I've seen the ensembles so far this season inside 1 week. Need to see the Euro/CMC trend towards the GFS soon before we can take this too seriously!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642140000/1642766400-SsXJwMY0GKc.png

1052mb high on the 6z GFS. Going to be really cold next Friday!

[rwfromkansas]

GFS Ensembles are really starting to light up for Next Thursday/Friday time frame...most active I've seen the ensembles so far this season inside 1 week. Need to see the Euro/CMC trend towards the GFS soon before we can take this too seriously!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1642140000/1642766400-SsXJwMY0GKc.png

Hard to get excited when most don't give DFW anything. It's mainly a southwest TX event on a lot of them. Once more show a wider state event, then I will get intrigued...

Edit to add: Did check the FWD grid forecast, and even I have a shot of flurries Saturday. So, fingers crossed.

[Iceresistance]

12z Mesoscale Model trends compared to 0z/6z

WRF-ARW: Well-defined west trend compared to 0z

WRF-ARW2: Trended more South compared to 0z

NAM 3km: SSW Trend compared to 6z

NAM 12km: SW Trend compared to 6z

RGEM: Trended more East compared to 0z & 6z (Center of Vort was in Western Oklahoma in 0z, North-Central in 6z, & now in NE Oklahoma on the 12z Run)

[wxman57]

I'm not liking the recent model trends for next Friday. GFS indicates another West Gulf Low (WGL) next Friday. This time, there is colder air to work with. GFS indicates plenty of cold air aloft from SE TX west to West Texas. However, surface temps in Houston may be above freezing with a small warm nose aloft. There may be a shallow layer of sub-freezing air around 1000-2000 ft above the surface during the precip. This could allow the melted snowflakes to refreeze into sleet for Houston.

Farther west, the cold air may be deeper in San Antonio & Austin with no warm nose and surface temps below freezing. You listening, Portastorm? Unfortunately, as I've stated before, WGLs typically produce precip in south Texas and along the coastal counties rather than way up north into the D-FW area. Moisture is generally too limited away from the Gulf.

Looks like I have some work to do on my wall prior to next Friday...

[rwfromkansas]

Interesting how the broad QPF narrows and moves west into KS from MO.

Yesterday, it showed it going broad and straight south through MO.

Any experts know why this change, like what causes it atmospherically?

The funny thing is, the "finger" out west with the higher amounts on the western fringe is my home county growing up.

[gpsnowman]

I'm not liking the recent model trends for next Friday. GFS indicates another West Gulf Low (WGL) next Friday. This time, there is colder air to work with. GFS indicates plenty of cold air aloft from SE TX west to West Texas. However, surface temps in Houston may be above freezing with a small warm nose aloft. There may be a shallow layer of sub-freezing air around 1000-2000 ft above the surface during the precip. This could allow the melted snowflakes to refreeze into sleet for Houston.

Farther west, the cold air may be deeper in San Antonio & Austin with no warm nose and surface temps below freezing. You listening, Portastorm? Unfortunately, as I've stated before, WGLs typically produce precip in south Texas and along the coastal counties rather than way up north into the D-FW area. Moisture is generally too limited away from the Gulf.

Looks like I have some work to do on my wall prior to next Friday...

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.