Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

I'm not liking the recent model trends for next Friday. GFS indicates another West Gulf Low (WGL) next Friday. This time, there is colder air to work with. GFS indicates plenty of cold air aloft from SE TX west to West Texas. However, surface temps in Houston may be above freezing with a small warm nose aloft. There may be a shallow layer of sub-freezing air around 1000-2000 ft above the surface during the precip. This could allow the melted snowflakes to refreeze into sleet for Houston.

Farther west, the cold air may be deeper in San Antonio & Austin with no warm nose and surface temps below freezing. You listening, Portastorm? Unfortunately, as I've stated before, WGLs typically produce precip in south Texas and along the coastal counties rather than way up north into the D-FW area. Moisture is generally too limited away from the Gulf.

Looks like I have some work to do on my wall prior to next Friday...

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

That's been happening with mine as well.

[gpsnowman]

I am able to click on the link after quoting his post though and sure enough Houston does look to be a little chilly next week. Maybe a Houston chase to see some sleet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well well well, where have i been the last 48 hours? That storm in Texas area looks like a dream scenario. Maybe if the cold air was a bit deeper, but projections could change. GFS wants to lock it in 7 days out.
Since most of the precip will be associated with orographic lift and the moisture overrunning the cold air, the position of the high rushing down the plains will be crucial. The 500 mb chart wants to keep shoving the high into Oklahoma, very good for orographic lift. Kind of reminds of the Jan 2018 storm. This storm was mainly sleet, which stuck around for a couple days.

Living in Denver right now but I'm pulling for you guys!

[Brent]

Tulsa mentioning brief whiteout conditions possible here tomorrow

[HockeyTx82]

I'm not liking the recent model trends for next Friday. GFS indicates another West Gulf Low (WGL) next Friday. This time, there is colder air to work with. GFS indicates plenty of cold air aloft from SE TX west to West Texas. However, surface temps in Houston may be above freezing with a small warm nose aloft. There may be a shallow layer of sub-freezing air around 1000-2000 ft above the surface during the precip. This could allow the melted snowflakes to refreeze into sleet for Houston.

Farther west, the cold air may be deeper in San Antonio & Austin with no warm nose and surface temps below freezing. You listening, Portastorm? Unfortunately, as I've stated before, WGLs typically produce precip in south Texas and along the coastal counties rather than way up north into the D-FW area. Moisture is generally too limited away from the Gulf.

Looks like I have some work to do on my wall prior to next Friday...

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

Same problem with graphics for me too.

[wxman57]

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

I'm not sure why you're unable to access my domain (wxman57.com). I'm not restricting cold lovers from accessing it. Are you on a PC or using your phone? Can you access the image as a URL?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

[Iceresistance]

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

I'm not sure why you're unable to access my domain (wxman57.com). I'm not restricting cold lovers from accessing it. Are you on a PC or using your phone? Can you access the image as a URL?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

I can see it through the URL. (I double checked it)

[gpsnowman]

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

I'm not sure why you're unable to access my domain (wxman57.com). I'm not restricting cold lovers from accessing it. Are you on a PC or using your phone? Can you access the image as a URL?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Yes I can see the Houston chart on the URL. And I am using a PC and my phone.

[wxman57]

Nice post 57 but I have been having trouble viewing your images that you post and even your avatar for the last few days. Not sure if it is an error on my end.

I'm not sure why you're unable to access my domain (wxman57.com). I'm not restricting cold lovers from accessing it. Are you on a PC or using your phone? Can you access the image as a URL?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Yes I can see the Houston chart on the URL. And I am using a PC and my phone.

That would suggest something changed on the S2K server with image links. I'm not sure who controls that. Until it's resolved, I'll just post the URL. If you need to view my avatar, you can find it here

http://wxman57.com/images/HeatMiser.jpg

[gpsnowman]

Ok thanks. I think you might need to switch back to the cold avatar in a few days.

[Iceresistance]

:uarrow: Ok thanks. I think you might need to switch back to the cold avatar in a few days.

Or go to Florida for a little bit.

[Cpv17]

I have no issues viewing anything 57 posts. Works perfectly fine for me.

[Cpv17]

Well well well, where have i been the last 48 hours? That storm in Texas area looks like a dream scenario. Maybe if the cold air was a bit deeper, but projections could change. GFS wants to lock it in 7 days out.
Since most of the precip will be associated with orographic lift and the moisture overrunning the cold air, the position of the high rushing down the plains will be crucial. The 500 mb chart wants to keep shoving the high into Oklahoma, very good for orographic lift. Kind of reminds of the Jan 2018 storm. This storm was mainly sleet, which stuck around for a couple days.

Living in Denver right now but I'm pulling for you guys!

Typically we need a 1050mb high coming down to give southeast TX a chance. GFS has 1052mb so maybe there’s a chance.

[Texas Snow]

I have no issues viewing anything 57 posts. Works perfectly fine for me.

Me as well

[Ntxw]

Very STJ driven late next week hard to forecast. One thing to note, avoid the bullseye 7 days out . Southwest S/W Speed, angle, HP strength, and how it pulls the stj all can change quickly.

[HockeyTx82]

I have no issues viewing anything 57 posts. Works perfectly fine for me.

I have issues with his posts...... but that's because I don't always like what he posts even though he speaks the truth.

[rwfromkansas]

I have no issues viewing anything 57 posts. Works perfectly fine for me.

Me as well

Like yesterday, I can view the Meteogram on my phone, but not on the computer at work. However, I note I am on the same wifi on my phone, so I don't think that's the issue. May be something to do with the browser, not sure. I will have to try it at home to see if it's any better.

[Brent]

Is the RAP any good? Because it has a 4-5 inch snow band right over me also has some minor accumulation in NE/Eastern DFW

[wxman57]

Checking the 12Z GFS, I see some differences with next Friday's storm system. Air aloft is not as cold. The shallow sub-freezing layer over Houston has been replaced by a significant warm nose, indicating cold rain. For Austin, there is only a very weak warm nose. Enough cold air aloft in Austin possibly for snow and definitely for sleet, assuming it verifies. Nothing for the D-FW area Friday, which is typical for such Gulf storm systems. GFS does indicate moisture/precip over the D-FW area next Saturday, though. Too far out to be confident in the GFS verifying.

[txtwister78]

Very STJ driven late next week hard to forecast. One thing to note, avoid the bullseye 7 days out . Southwest S/W Speed, angle, HP strength, and how it pulls the stj all can change quickly.

Good points here. As is the case with most Texas winter events, timing and getting everything to align can be quite the challenge, however you don't need a ton of arctic air to get some impactful winter weather events down here as we've seen before. I would like to see some other model buy in though before giving too much credence to the consistent GFS. Would be quite the coup though should it verify.