Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Texas Snow]

Checking the 12Z GFS, I see some differences with next Friday's storm system. Air aloft is not as cold. The shallow sub-freezing layer over Houston has been replaced by a significant warm nose, indicating cold rain. For Austin, there is only a very weak warm nose. Enough cold air aloft in Austin possibly for snow and definitely for sleet, assuming it verifies. Nothing for the D-FW area Friday, which is typical for such Gulf storm systems. GFS does indicate moisture/precip over the D-FW area next Saturday, though. Too far out to be confident in the GFS verifying.

Yep I still remember in 5th or 6th grade how were were supposed to get an multi-incher in DFW and even talk of school cancellations and a gulf low formed and we were all disappointment to wake up and find we had school the next day.

[rwfromkansas]

Is the RAP any good? Because it has a 4-5 inch snow band right over me also has some minor accumulation in NE/Eastern DFW

https://i.ibb.co/Nrc9pYw/sn10-acc-us-c-3.png

The RAP seems to match the NAM in moving winter precip west of AR. Strange. But, it's almost giving me something decent here in north FW. Just trend a tad south....

[WinterMax]

Gfs 12z literally feeding everyone snow and ice, lol

[Iceresistance]

Gfs 12z literally feeding everyone snow and ice, lol

That forecast for Next Week is already very difficult because of the timing issues by several factors already mentioned by Ntxw

[Haris]

CMC is a nice throwback to reality with a totally different 500 pattern.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS is starting to take note of Snow along I-20 from Sweetwater to DFW to Shreveport, Louisiana, mean Snowfall is .5 to .75 inches & it's 6-8 days out.

One Ensemble Member (#13) has 6+ inches of snow in DFW, unlikely, but it's interesting to watch.

[Cerlin]

Tomorrow’s system looks to be relatively dry snow for the plains, I’m seeing models like the RAP predicting about 14:1 ratios. Could contribute to whiteout conditions in the east, and maybe could result in some over performing closer to the red river?

[Brent]

Tomorrow’s system looks to be relatively dry snow for the plains, I’m seeing models like the RAP predicting about 14:1 ratios. Could contribute to whiteout conditions in the east, and maybe could result in some over performing closer to the red river?

Yeah even Tulsa is mentioning brief whiteout conditions it's definitely gonna be an interesting day I wouldn't be surprised if we over perform. The official forecast is still pretty much an inch or less

Also what's gonna be wild is it's happening in the middle of the day

[gpsnowman]

Tomorrow’s system looks to be relatively dry snow for the plains, I’m seeing models like the RAP predicting about 14:1 ratios. Could contribute to whiteout conditions in the east, and maybe could result in some over performing closer to the red river?

Yeah even Tulsa is mentioning brief whiteout conditions it's definitely gonna be an interesting day I wouldn't be surprised if we over perform. The official forecast is still pretty much an inch or less

Also what's gonna be wild is it's happening in the middle of the day

That means it will be over in Tulsa by bedtime. I will stay up as usual to see a few wind blown flakes.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure why you're unable to access my domain (wxman57.com). I'm not restricting cold lovers from accessing it. Are you on a PC or using your phone? Can you access the image as a URL?

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHFriday.JPG

Yes I can see the Houston chart on the URL. And I am using a PC and my phone.

That would suggest something changed on the S2K server with image links. I'm not sure who controls that. Until it's resolved, I'll just post the URL. If you need to view my avatar, you can find it here

http://wxman57.com/images/HeatMiser.jpg

It did as we fixed our security certificate. Really not sure why the image isn't showing other than a possible block because it's not secure (http vs https)

[Iceresistance]

KFOR Snow forecast for Tomorrow (I'm not very sure why the High for Tulsa is higher than the one for OKC)


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snow-for-Saturday.jpg

[Brent]

Tomorrow’s system looks to be relatively dry snow for the plains, I’m seeing models like the RAP predicting about 14:1 ratios. Could contribute to whiteout conditions in the east, and maybe could result in some over performing closer to the red river?

Yeah even Tulsa is mentioning brief whiteout conditions it's definitely gonna be an interesting day I wouldn't be surprised if we over perform. The official forecast is still pretty much an inch or less

Also what's gonna be wild is it's happening in the middle of the day

That means it will be over in Tulsa by bedtime. I will stay up as usual to see a few wind blown flakes.

Yeah peak is probably gonna be afternoon here

I am definitely curious to watch this

[rwfromkansas]

That's a weird KFOR temp forecast. The heaviest snow areas should have cooler temps due to cold air being brought down.

[Haris]

12z euro brings some snow to Dallas but near day 8.

[Iceresistance]

That's a weird KFOR temp forecast. The heaviest snow areas should have cooler temps due to cold air being brought down.

KWTV-News 9 has a high of 26 for both Tulsa & OKC

A driving North Wind, 50-55 mph gusts are expected tonight, I'm getting everything ready for that.

[Ntxw]

Some 60mph winds in the plains today. Strong gradient with deepening system. Not surprised at all those who do see snow in the central and s plains experience brief whiteout conditions from the wind.

[Quixotic]

I must be crazy but seeing mammatus clouds overhead here in Frisco. Checked the radar but nothing. Must be some really dynamic stuff imminent.

[Cerlin]

I must be crazy but seeing mammatus clouds overhead here in Frisco. Checked the radar but nothing. Must be some really dynamic stuff imminent.

Maybe a good sign for the Metroplex with regards to snow tomorrow? Usually the more unstable, the easier it is to tap into moisture.

[bubba hotep]

[dhweather]

This stinks, the GFS has had several consecutive runs with practically no appreciable rain for DFW through 384 hours. The only silver lining is it's not August, then the current drought would resemble 2011.