Reanalysis questions

[GSBHurricane]

For the entourage of unnamed tropical depressions from 1967 until 1994 or so, is there a way to determine which ones were likely depressions vs glorified waves?

[Hammy]

For the entourage of unnamed tropical depressions from 1967 until 1994 or so, is there a way to determine which ones were likely depressions vs glorified waves?

In the reanalysis reports they list every system they've come across, including depressions and systems that were almost there but not quite closed, so we can compare the current tracking data once those come out to the reports which ones were dropped, though I imagine a fair number of them from the 1960s and 70s will be upgraded to storms as well.

[GSBHurricane]

Anything new about the 1966-70 reanalysis?

[CrazyC83]

Anything new about the 1966-70 reanalysis?

Not at this time no.

[GSBHurricane]

Currently, I have three educated guesses for the four missing storms for 1966, and all four for 1967. I'm basing it on the TD tracks and the reanalysis presentation from 2018.

[jconsor]

Could you please post a link to the reanalysis presentation you mentioned?
Thanks.

Currently, I have three educated guesses for the four missing storms for 1966, and all four for 1967. I'm basing it on the TD tracks and the reanalysis presentation from 2018.

[GSBHurricane]

Could you please post a link to the reanalysis presentation you mentioned?
Thanks.

Currently, I have three educated guesses for the four missing storms for 1966, and all four for 1967. I'm basing it on the TD tracks and the reanalysis presentation from 2018.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/33HURRICANE/ ... aper339830

[BYG Jacob]

I forgot there was a reanalysis thread, my bad.
I would personally love to see a thorough reanalysis of Cyclone Nargis. The most devastating storm of the 21st century deserves better analysis.

[Hammy]

Could you please post a link to the reanalysis presentation you mentioned?
Thanks.

Currently, I have three educated guesses for the four missing storms for 1966, and all four for 1967. I'm basing it on the TD tracks and the reanalysis presentation from 2018.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/33HURRICANE/ ... aper339830

Are there any revised track maps or anything that reveals what the new storms or revised intensities for 1966-70 are?

[GSBHurricane]

Could you please post a link to the reanalysis presentation you mentioned?
Thanks.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/33HURRICANE/ ... aper339830

Are there any revised track maps or anything that reveals what the new storms or revised intensities for 1966-70 are?

Not yet, one Kendra is one of the four missing storms for 1966 along with another one found at the end of the additional notes section of the 1965 Metadata. The third, based on the location of origin, is probably the late June/early July depression. That leaves only one missing storm for 1966. I can make guesses for 1967 based on the origin although with a lot more depressions to work with (with most of those probably not even depressions) it's all less certain. There's no clue about 1968 and there's not supposed to be any new storms for 1969. As far as 1970 goes, one of the depressions is supposed to be a hurricane. And there's a couple of preliminary tracks I found on Twitter.

[Hammy]

In the absence of any new information with the reanalysis, I've gone through some track maps and satellite data, and applying that to the dots noted in the video, but I've found likely candidates for the added storms for 1966-70:

1966 aside from the obvious one being Kendra:

NW Caribbean dot is likely to be TD2


Central Atlantic dot is possibly a tropical wave that showed convective activity around August 18-20


The 1966 satellite maps only go through November 11, so more than likely the northeasternmost point would be something in November or December

For 1967 there were three western Atlantic dots, and one near SW Cabo Verde.

The westernmost one is likely TD3 in mid-June


The one to the east is likely TD20 in mid-October


The easternmost one likely TD5 around Jun 20


The CV system could either be a TD in late August, or TD20 in September:

https://i.imgur.com/CyFoF9I.png

Only one system is noted for 1968, which is likely a system which went up the east coast, and is listed in CLIQR as being at storm intenstiy and noted as having tropical characteristics.


Nothing is noted in 1969, but four are in 1970--One off Africa, another near 40W, another near 50W, a fourth in the central Atlantic, and another near Bermuda.

CV system is likely TD9 in early August


50W system is likely TD12 in mid August


central Atlantic system is likely TD21 at the end of October (formed further south, but this is the clearest picture)


Bermuda system is likely TD7 at the start of August


The 40W system is likely TD19, which as been brought up in the past
https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1188847148890120192

[GSBHurricane]

In the absence of any new information with the reanalysis, I've gone through some track maps and satellite data, and applying that to the dots noted in the video, but I've found likely candidates for the added storms for 1966-70:

1966 aside from the obvious one being Kendra:

NW Caribbean dot is likely to be TD2
https://i.imgur.com/j7tYjDF.png

Central Atlantic dot is possibly a tropical wave that showed convective activity around August 18-20
https://i.imgur.com/tBQIb7y.png

The 1966 satellite maps only go through November 11, so more than likely the northeasternmost point would be something in November or December

For 1967 there were three western Atlantic dots, and one near SW Cabo Verde.

The westernmost one is likely TD3 in mid-June
https://i.imgur.com/3J9YUiu.png

The one to the east is likely TD20 in mid-October
https://i.imgur.com/uhMpt1V.png

The easternmost one likely TD5 around Jun 20
https://i.imgur.com/3f6XuqU.png

The CV system could either be a TD in late August, or TD20 in September:
https://i.imgur.com/t1RzQvp.png
https://i.imgur.com/CyFoF9I.png

Only one system is noted for 1968, which is likely a system which went up the east coast, and is listed in CLIQR as being at storm intenstiy and noted as having tropical characteristics.
https://i.imgur.com/eP6Z50A.png

Nothing is noted in 1969, but four are in 1970--One off Africa, another near 40W, another near 50W, a fourth in the central Atlantic, and another near Bermuda.

CV system is likely TD9 in early August
https://i.imgur.com/w2Af0Qu.png

50W system is likely TD12 in mid August
https://i.imgur.com/jiss8lf.png

central Atlantic system is likely TD21 at the end of October (formed further south, but this is the clearest picture)
https://i.imgur.com/TNnyeMS.png

Bermuda system is likely TD7 at the start of August
https://i.imgur.com/3UDDpL4.png

The 40W system is likely TD19, which as been brought up in the past
https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1188847148890120192

It turns out the northernmost one for 1966 is more or less confirmed in the 1965 metadata as being a January SS.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Not sure where to post this (mods can relocate this thread if needed) but this is pretty big news coming out of NOAA/AOML. The HURDAT reanalysis project has been completed for the 1966-1970 Atlantic Hurricane seasons. Link to the document is below:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/me ... 6-1970.pdf

Some key changes:

- Faith (1966) underwent extratropical transition far earlier than originally thought
- Inez (1966) has been reassessed as a category 5 hurricane and made landfall at that intensity in Hispaniola
- Gladys (1968) has been reassessed as a category 2 hurricane
- Francelia (1969) has been reassessed as a category 2 hurricane
- Celia (1970) has been reassessed as a category 4 hurricane and made landfall at that intensity in Texas



Additional modifications to certain seasons/storms have also been made (such as the long tracked MDR TD from the 1970 being reassessed as a category 1 hurricane near the Azores) but you can skim through the rest of the report to find them if you've got some free time on your hands.

[MarioProtVI]

1970 getting a boost in activity makes me wonder if the whole “low-activity period” from 1970 to 1994 was just over exaggerated and was just the result of primitive observations back then (since a lot of small embedded hurricanes/TSs that we can detect today were most obviously missed, particularly in the 80s). There was a decline in quality during that period although I think it could just be related to aerosols. Will have to see the 1971-75 reanalysis whenever that comes out but as of right now

[Hurricanehink]

I read elsewhere that, because Gladys 68 was upgraded to a C2, the season's strongest storm did not peak as a Category 1. That affects 2013, which, in their annual summary, the NHC wrote about - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2013.pdf

The season’s strongest hurricane, Humberto, reached an intensity of only 80 kt—this is the first time since 1968 that no hurricanes reached category 2 strength.

With Gladys at a Category 2, 2013 was the first season since 1925 to achieve that feat (unless any future reanalysis downgrades a storm to a C1, which doesn't seem likely).

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, Inez really got the bump up. I sort of suspected that would happen, but dang, 165 mph? I thought it was more of a 160 mph storm. Also, I think I've come to learn how extreme 2013 was. Given it is now the first season in nearly a century to not feature a storm stronger than Cat 1 strength, I'm even less inclined to listen to the inevitable 2013 comments for this year.

[AlphaToOmega]

As expected, Faith has been reanalyzed to undergo extratropical transition earlier than thought, showing how hostile the Far North Atlantic is for tropical cyclogenesis.

[bg1]

I'm a bit confused about the unnamed hurricane AL091968. It looks like it was classified as subtropical while it had hurricane-force winds if I'm reading the report correctly and I thought only fully tropical cyclones could be called hurricanes if strong enough (and subtropical cyclones would still be called "subtropical storms")

[Iceresistance]

I'm a bit confused about the unnamed hurricane AL091968. It looks like it was classified as subtropical while it had hurricane-force winds if I'm reading the report correctly and I thought only fully tropical cyclones could be called hurricanes if strong enough (and subtropical cyclones would still be called "subtropical storms")

Wikipedia is saying that this is a 'Subtropical Cyclone'

[Shell Mound]

I read elsewhere that, because Gladys 68 was upgraded to a C2, the season's strongest storm did not peak as a Category 1. That affects 2013, which, in their annual summary, the NHC wrote about - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2013.pdf

The season’s strongest hurricane, Humberto, reached an intensity of only 80 kt—this is the first time since 1968 that no hurricanes reached category 2 strength.

With Gladys at a Category 2, 2013 was the first season since 1925 to achieve that feat (unless any future reanalysis downgrades a storm to a C1, which doesn't seem likely).

It is also noteworthy that Gladys’ upgrade to 85 kt occurred during landfall on the Big Bend (Nature Coast) of Florida. Alma (1966) was also upgraded to a 100-kt Category-3 impact in Florida, based on sustained winds of MH intensity, apparently at standard 10-m elevation, in the Dry Tortugas. The reanalysis also added a secondary, 105-kt peak for Faith (1966) over the open North Atlantic. Inez (1966) was also upgraded at 85 kt (Category 2) at landfall on the Florida Keys. Beulah (1967) was upgraded to 110 kt at its landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula and downgraded to 110 kt at its landfall on the Mexican mainland. Doria (1967) was upgraded to an 85-kt Category-2 at its peak. One really anomalous situation: Gerda (1969) was analysed as having MSW of 105 kt despite a MSLP of 980 mb because Nantucket (yes, Nantucket, MA!) Lightship measured sustained winds of 110 kt (elevated) at 18 m, indicating 10-m winds of ~105 kt. Gerda also made landfall on eastern Maine with MSW of 70 kt, becoming Maine’s only hurricane impact on record. Ella (1970) was also reanalysed as having a lower MSLP, 962 mb, at landfall on the Mexican mainland, while MSW of 110 kt during landfall were maintained. Storm #19 (1970) was also upgraded to an 85-kt Category-2 hurricane over the open North Atlantic.