Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA

Lift. Upper level divergence is a great mechanism for this. Today, most of the lift and divergence was to the south.

[Iceresistance]

Made it down to 9 this morning.

My house managed to record 8°F, Watonga, OK fell to 5°F

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS at the long range may be playing tricks, but that's a crippling Ice Storm for Central & Northern Texas if it verified.

The Radar & Soundings don't match up to each other very well in Oklahoma though.

And 1060+ MB Highs in Alaska & Canada as well, with lows as far down as -60°F

So now we know what wont happen. Got it.

It's been saying this since mid december and we have yet to have a 1050mb cross the border!

It's educational to see how they develop, but other than that, lets not try to excite the board or others who dont understand that the chances of this happening are something like 2%, when models show it past 300 hours.

I do want to mention that the GFS has been doing something similar to that for a while now.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.

[rwfromkansas]

GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.

Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?

[Iceresistance]

GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.

Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?

Yes from Previous Posts, but since the MJO is inactive, we don't know when or where it will reemerge it's basically anyone's guess until we get better information & knowledge on when it will come back out.

[Cpv17]

The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA

You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.

[rwfromkansas]

Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA

You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.

Yeah, winter storms typically have a narrow band of heavy snow, ice etc. Last February was definitely unusual.

[wxman57]

It's somewhat chilly here in Houston today. A temperature of 100F would feel much better. GFS & Euro are still battling over that east coast storm around the 29-30th. GFS has a massive storm while the Euro has a weak low offshore. Who will win?

[Iceresistance]

The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.

We were in Phase 8 earlier this month

[TropicalTundra]

Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.

[Cpv17]

Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.

My heart yearns for the north branch to merge with with the STJ with a 1060+mb high coming down dropping temps in Texas from anywhere below zero to the 20’s with a couple feet for a snow for most of the state. And for it to stay cold for a couple weeks so the snow doesn’t melt. In my dreams right?

[Iceresistance]

The Setup is good, but the Southern Ridge won't let the cold come here!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65f0b2b1f6323096c6.png

[Iceresistance]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png

[wxman57]

Third light freeze of the season here in Houston this morning. That's fewer than normal for this time of year. Still too cold to go outside. Cold without snow remains pointless. We're gaining nearly a minute of sunshine each day not. Average temps are beginning to creep up.

[HockeyTx82]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png

Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....

[Iceresistance]

How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contourseeebee28a3f3c855.png

Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....

I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.

[Iceresistance]

Strong snowfall signal for Oklahoma 5-7 Days out on the 6z GEFS


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Only-7-Days-out.png

[Ntxw]

Icon snows west of DFW this week. Looks like Abilene bullseye this run.

Sneaky shortwave.

Rgem and nam are pretty close. HP up north feeding CAA while separation of Lower heights to the NE.