2022 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

What are your predictions? I expect a more active 2022 in ACE than 2021. Some outlooks think 2022 has an increasing chance of Nino (though late in the year). But Nino or not I based my prediction on the similarity to the 2010-2011 seasons, 2012's ACE was nearly the ACE sum of 2010 and 2011.

I don't do cat 5 name guesses, I suck at specific predictions

However cat 5 names I would want to see are Malakas (assuming 2021 doesn't get it), Megi, Songda, Tokage, Nanmadol, Talas, Noru, Kulap, Nesat, Haitang, Nalgae, Yamaneko.
The first names in the list are unlikely unless another event happens like Maysak (2015), Wutip (2019), Surigae (2021).

[Hurricane2021]

My predictions are an near average - slightly above average season
25 - 27 TS
12 - 16 TY
5 - 8 STY

My cat 4/5 STY name guesses are:

Megi
Songda
Tokage
Nanmadol
Roke
Sonca
Banyan

Sorry my bad english

[dexterlabio]

I have a gut feeling that 2022 would be more active than our previous two La Niña-stricken years. Much less weakling TCs and the season will be a good balance between quality and quantity.

Although, we might not see too much of those ridiculously intense Cat5's like Goni, Surigae, and Chanthu like we did in 2020 and 2021. It just seems that those kind of storms occur only during a below-average, quantity over quality seasons...

[cycloneye]

Great news as Tropical Tidbits adds Himawari-8 sat.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1477797900184739842

[cycloneye]

Maybe a invest soon?

[cycloneye]

27/16/6 is my prediction.

[cycloneye]

We have 91W.

[cycloneye]

What about this inactive basin so far? The average ACE should be as on this March 2 date at 2.9 units but is 0.00. Are there any prospects that may develop soon?

[Hayabusa]

What about this inactive basin so far? The average ACE should be as on this March 2 date at 2.9 units but is 0.00. Are there any prospects that may develop soon?

https://i.imgur.com/ZusD7xh.gif

The GFS is stuck in "2 weeks more and we'll get a TC" since the start of the year (actually since after Rai back in December). Well back in 2012 we didn't get our first named storm until the end of the March.

[ManilaTC]

93W developed into the first TD of the year.

GFS pointing a regeneration of 01W going East and now with 94W heading towards PH with the two doing a dance near Luzon, we might have the first TS this April.

[Kingarabian]

GFS will be showing TCG in the WPAC since it has a strong CCKW in the region in about a week.

[Hayabusa]

Pretty interesting that the Euro is also on board with a TC developing in the long range, which means there's a strong signal out there that the usual late comer can't ignore it. Malakas and Megi are the first names, hypothetically if 94W becomes Malakas then the other would be Megi or vice versa, I'm already getting a Surigae feeling from this...

[Kingarabian]

Pretty interesting that the Euro is also on board with a TC developing in the long range, which means there's a strong signal out there that the usual late comer can't ignore it. Malakas and Megi are the first names, hypothetically if 94W becomes Malakas then the other would be Megi or vice versa, I'm already getting a Surigae feeling from this...

Surigae's genesis was associated with a strong WWB event that occurred between 140E-150E in response to a legit MJO pulse over the WPAC. It had some intense rising motion to aid it. Also helped that it had a blocking high forcing it to move WNW which really favors RI. Not seeing the typical WWB -> STY scenario here. The forecast calls for weak/modest westerly anomalies in response to a suspected -CCKW/Rossby Wave and they will be confined to 120E-125E.

[Foxfires]

Seems 94W has dissipated. 95W given a low chance of formation within the next 24h. Curious to see whether or not the next Malakas will actually live up to it's name, and whether or not Megi will keep up the bad luck streak.

Pretty slow early season so far. Don't know if that really means anything for what comes later; this is the Western North Pacific after all.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/jejudohallabong/status/1510793764046262274



 https://twitter.com/jejudohallabong/status/1510795062636335110

[Yellow Evan]

With a La Nina and a +AMO favoring rising motion over the Atlantic, an above average season was never really on the table to begin with.

[mrbagyo]

[Foxfires]

:uarrow: With a La Nina and a +AMO favoring rising motion over the Atlantic, an above average season was never really on the table to begin with.

On that topic, I'm curious, is an above average WPAC season (by most measurements of activity instead of like, one (named storms, typhoons, super typhoons, ACE)) during a La Nina possible?

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: With a La Nina and a +AMO favoring rising motion over the Atlantic, an above average season was never really on the table to begin with.

On that topic, I'm curious, is an above average WPAC season (by most measurements of activity instead of like, one (named storms, typhoons, super typhoons, ACE)) during a La Nina possible?

I believe it never happened, especially ACE-wise. But at times a La Niña year could appear significant in terms of intense typhoons forming in the basin, but it's actually a quantity over quality situation.

I think one could argue that 155kt+ TCs in the WPAC are most likely to occur during a negative ENSO year. Examples: Surigae, Chanthu, Goni, Meranti, Haiyan, Megi.

[dexterlabio]

GFS is still showing a TC originating from SCS tracking eastward, towards 95W. It's been a while since we last saw this kind of TC forming in the SCS then tracking from west to east.