Texas Winter 2021-2022
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
18z euro look like a big one for dallas
1 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37138
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Unless this week trends into a legit snow here(aka the grass has to be covered) I'm probably gonna lose my mind if that 18z GFS back east verifies
Enough already it's our turn their climo isn't as good as mine
All this talk of a great pattern... Not around here. A great pattern requires a snowstorm at some point
Enough already it's our turn their climo isn't as good as mine
All this talk of a great pattern... Not around here. A great pattern requires a snowstorm at some point
1 likes
#neversummer
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8928
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
There is now a model conflict on when & where the MJO will reemerge. (Will it be funny if it reemerged at Phase 7 later this coming work week?)
The CA Model has it reemerging at Phase 8 in a few days
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/statphase_small.gif
The GEFS model is consistent now for it to reemerge in a couple of weeks at Phase 3.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/GEFS_ensplume_small.gif
The CA Model has it reemerging at Phase 8 in a few days
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/statphase_small.gif
The GEFS model is consistent now for it to reemerge in a couple of weeks at Phase 3.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/GEFS_ensplume_small.gif
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5598
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
2 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1069
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22488
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!
0 likes
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!
Air quality is better in a
Cold airmass over our typical April to September Hell weather. It just feels better in the lungs. It’s why I can run longer, faster and feel more refreshed when I run in Winter.
I go to the treadmill and stationary bike when it gets warm. I only do races in the Winter months.
47 is not cold, not even close. HAHA.
4 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12z euro gets a little snow into NTX. We need to cash something, February looking like a warm start.
It's been a lot of dry cold for the northern half of the state. Been a reversal but the persistent drought holds true.
It's been a lot of dry cold for the northern half of the state. Been a reversal but the persistent drought holds true.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
That's the most deflating part of this. No snow? Fine. But at least throw us a bone and bring some rain our way. This week's system only looked like it was going to be a wetting rain at best, but now it's looking like there's a very realistic chance we'll get missed entirely. We're digging a pretty big hole when you consider how dry 2021 ended.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22488
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:wxman57 wrote:It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!
Air quality is better in a
Cold airmass over our typical April to September Hell weather. It just feels better in the lungs. It’s why I can run longer, faster and feel more refreshed when I run in Winter.
I go to the treadmill and stationary bike when it gets warm. I only do races in the Winter months. 47 is not cold, not even close. HAHA.
My lungs always hurt if I run in cold weather (<80F). Biking inside isn't biking. Tried it decades ago and was bored to death after 2 minutes. I know that there are new systems that connect to the internet and let you bike with friends, but I prefer the real thing. Temperature is almost to 51F now, still too cold to even go outside (for me). I'm sitting at my desk with a small heater pointed at my hands. Otherwise, I'm under an electric blanket with a large heating pad on my back (sitting up watching TV). Some weekend... Temperature in my home office is down to 75.6F. BRRR!
Looks cold and dry for much of Texas for the next couple of weeks. No snow for the D-FW area except for the chance of a brief flurry Wednesday night with the surface temp above freezing. The bulk of the cold air continues to push east into February.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37138
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
txtwister78 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.
Are we ever gonna get a favorable pattern for moisture and cold here before winter is over. I mean the days are getting longer averages are going up it's gonna be over soon
I know everyone always hypes February but once it's over...
0 likes
#neversummer
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
1 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1069
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Yeah both 12z Euro control and latest GFS operational hinting at a secondary system dropping further south late in the week pulling some colder down with it, but almost no ensemble support with that for now.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- txtwister78
- Category 5
- Posts: 1069
- Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
- Location: San Antonio
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:txtwister78 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.
Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.
Are we ever gonna get a favorable pattern for moisture and cold here before winter is over. I mean the days are getting longer averages are going up it's gonna be over soon
I know everyone always hypes February but once it's over...
Just not a favorable pattern for precip (even when we've had the cold in place). Perhaps that changes a bit into Feb, but there are signs that we could see more ridging come back the first few weeks so doesn't look too promising right now, but of course things can change.
0 likes
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5598
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
A blend of the 18z Euro & 18z GFS probably gets some measurable snowfall for N. Texas b/w I20 and the Red River. Concerning that the Hi-res models seem uninterested at this point...
1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:A blend of the 18z Euro & 18z GFS probably gets some measurable snowfall for N. Texas b/w I20 and the Red River. Concerning that the Hi-res models seem uninterested at this point...
Good thing is we are far enough out for the hi res to change. Hopefully because first system is so far S it won't overwork the atmosphere.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5598
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Lubbock WFO believes in this system and has widespread snow forecast. But does it make it far enough east to impact DFW/N.TX?
1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
18z euro says yes.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The end of the Euro and EPS actually look kinda interesting. Will that cold air keep pushing south or stay up there?
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37138
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
GFS has that midweek wave trying to be interesting up here again. Definitely some accumulating snow
3 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 16 guests