Texas Winter 2021-2022

[orangeblood]

Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast

[Iceresistance]

MJO is now expected to reemerge at Phase 4 in February.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png

Euro looks a bit Nino-ish

[wxman57]

End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma

https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png

Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?

[HockeyTx82]

End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma

https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png

Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?

Nah, we will concede August, but that's it.

[Ntxw]

Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png

Both treat ridging in the Pacific different. Suspect that the MJO with split convection (lingering IDL flare won't go anyway soon now that nino 4 has warmed) causing confusion.

[WinterMax]

End of the Euro has a near blizzard in OK/KS and NW TX over a foot in western Oklahoma

https://i.ibb.co/2n8Xk1m/sn10-acc-us-c-4.png

Comparing the 00Z run to yesterday's 12Z EC, the previous run had only a weak low in SE Nebraska at the same time. Similar with the 00Z Monday run. The key will be the trend this week. GFS has that same low in northern Minnesota. Canadian has it in eastern Nebraska. Not a lot of agreement. Can I have my 70s and 80s back in Houston if there won't be any snow?

I'm so on board with this, too much inactivity for me with all of this cold soupy weather. It's 45 here in south Louisiana and a mist falling. Wind chill might be low 40s but feels like low 30s to my old bones.

Between now and Sunday only Thursday night will not have a freeze. If it won't snow I vote for 70 and sunny.

I'm ready for wxman57 kind of weather here

[orangeblood]

Crazy differences showing up on the longer term GEFS vs. Euro ENS....don't think I've ever seen this big of a discrepancy on a ENS Mean for a week 2 forecast

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643068800/1644364800-mPOWBfyOxaU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t850_anom_7day/1643090400/1644408000-fzZ0DUVrz7Q.png

Both treat ridging in the Pacific different. Suspect that the MJO with split convection (lingering IDL flare won't go anyway soon now that nino 4 has warmed) causing confusion.

Yep, EPO differences look like the main culprit. Something looks off with the Euro ENS...with such a massive negative anomaly near the Dateline, you'd think we'd see a bigger ridge across Alaska with more negative anomalies across Central US. If GEFS is right, semblance of Feb 2021 just missing Negative AO

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Different region but i just saw the 0z Euro..... I'm sure the weather mets are losing it with that Nor'Easter on the east coast.

[Cpv17]

End of the 0z Euro looks like a McFarland sig, does it not?

[Iceresistance]

KWTV-News 9 has 1-2 inches of snow for Central Oklahoma, more likely in Snow Bands.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image0-3.jpg


[url][https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image1-11.jpg/url]


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/image2-6.jpg

(Ignore some of the snowfall locations, it can be very finicky)

[Ntxw]

Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.

[Cerlin]

It appears some decent radar returns are happening northwest of Tulsa right now. Maybe going to get some flakes up there Brent? Of course, assuming it doesn’t dissipate like snow seems to do before they enter a metro area.

[Brent]

Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.

Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate

[Ntxw]

Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.

Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate

It's on all the guidance to varying degrees. Let's hope it doesn't trend weaker as it gets closer.

[Iceresistance]

Large storm system showing up in the medium range. Fits the cycle of troughs handing off in transition period.

Yeah definitely getting consistent. Heavy snow in Kansas on the Euro but still just to see a storm the GFS even showed it to a point. I definitely wouldn't be opposed to a big rain event at this rate

It's on all the guidance to varying degrees. Let's hope it doesn't trend weaker as it gets closer.

There is a very big snowband near Dodge City, KS, Snowfall rates are close to 2 inches per hour.

[Brent]

[cheezyWXguy]

:spam:
https://i.ibb.co/s3ZdQL2/sn10-acc-us-sc-2.png

I normally hate when people say this, but because it suits my interests in this particular moment:

ALL HAIL KING EURO

Once it stops showing something I like though I’ll be back to my regularly scheduled program

[Cpv17]

At the end of the Euro I’ve noticed in the last two runs that it seems to be hanging some energy back west..maybe another round?

[Texas Snowman]

:spam:
https://i.ibb.co/s3ZdQL2/sn10-acc-us-sc-2.png

Y’all know better than to trust a model when it shows snow and cold. They are only reliable when they show shorts and shirt sleeve bike riding weather!

Heat Miser rebuttal in 3, 2, 1…