Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3061 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:57 pm

As NTXW posted, Feb (and even March for N TX) is so much more reliable than peak Jan
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3062 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:04 pm

A comparison of the 12Z Canadian, European, and American models valid in 8 days at 6am on Thursday, February 3rd. GFS is fastest and most progressive with the upper-level feature. Just cold and dry across Texas. Euro is slower and deeper with the upper trough. Thus, more frozen precip across TX. Canadian is very slow with the upper trof, leading to widespread heavy winter precip. Which is correct? Perhaps somewhere between the GFS & Euro is what I'd expect. Maybe a little winter weather, but not a major storm. I reserve the right to change that forecast once all the models "have a clue".

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3063 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:06 pm

The 500mb maps on all models look promising no doubt for next week to varying degrees. I think the pause I have at least is not so much with overall pattern potential which as NTXW pointed out changed in a few days via what teleconnections were showing (that's what had me thinking early Feb was a no go), but more with the players (surface) that still must come into play to get what we all want out of that pattern hence the 5 day pause. No question it's probably as good a look as we've seen this winter so far in terms of getting all models on board for "something".
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3064 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:13 pm

It is good to see raised heights and ridging focused in both the mid Atlantic and mid Pacific coasts rather than the southeast and southwest. We get a carving of the trough in the middle. Slows our flow and allows 500mb to deepen.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3065 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:A comparison of the 12Z Canadian, European, and American models valid in 8 days at 6am on Thursday, February 3rd. GFS is fastest and most progressive with the upper-level feature. Just cold and dry across Texas. Euro is slower and deeper with the upper trough. Thus, more frozen precip across TX. Canadian is very slow with the upper trof, leading to widespread heavy winter precip. Which is correct? Perhaps somewhere between the GFS & Euro is what I'd expect. Maybe a little winter weather, but not a major storm. I reserve the right to change that forecast once all the models "have a clue".

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG


I appreciate this comparison. It helps to see the why of the models, particularly how the digging and slow speed is so critical to bring the moisture up and make a decent storm. It's also interesting to see how the different scenarios change how much ice is involved vs. pure snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3066 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:53 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3067 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:23 pm

Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3068 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:29 pm

Heavy snow is possible in SW Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3069 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:34 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.


The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3070 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:59 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.


The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge


Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3071 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:04 pm

Not related to us 18z NAM making NE coast Twitter lose their shi*

I love it. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3072 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:06 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.


The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge


Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.


With plenty of cold air to tap into and 7 day Mean Height Anomalies looking like this, good chance of multiple winter weather events rolling through the southern plains starting first 7-10 days of Feb. Although not even close to perfect, The ensembles are the best tool we have for the 8-14 day range

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3073 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Heavy snow is possible in SW Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html


Wish it would keep going east. We got a shot but not as good as back west

But I'm really interested in next week all kinds of potential hopefully being February too makes it legit
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3074 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:41 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge


Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.




With plenty of cold air to tap into and 7 day Mean Height Anomalies looking like this, good chance of multiple winter weather events rolling through the southern plains starting first 7-10 days of Feb. Although not even close to perfect, The ensembles are the best tool we have for the 8-14 day range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom_7day/1643198400/1644364800-fcU6rQxg5AI.png


That gives me some weather tingles! Yummy!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3075 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:44 pm

Haris wrote:Not related to us 18z NAM making NE coast Twitter lose their shi*

I love it. :ggreen:


Love it. Keep them on their heels. From 2-3ft to zip, ultimate Lucy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3076 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:51 pm

Winter Storm Warning considered for SW Oklahoma, up to 6 inches expected there now.

Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour is coming my way, my goodness, it's going to be fun! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3077 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:21 pm

18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3078 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.


That system is a crippling Ice Storm for DFW
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3079 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:27 pm

I need one good snowstorm per year (no grass/barely any grass showing) so I'm all for getting something good. As long as there's no ice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3080 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.


Good trend on GFS, going towards what the Euro and CMC have been showing
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