Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

ICON lol

Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.

[Haris]

ICON lol

Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.

ICOn has ice statewide. It just doesnt show on tidbits. Austins around 21.

Otherwise yes, if you werent referring to that specific model, yeah I agree. Its a long shot still

[Cpv17]

ICON lol

Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.

ICOn has ice statewide. It just doesnt show on tidbits. Austins around 21

Ahh ok I gotcha.

[Brent]

GFS looks to be trending better ever so slightly

Still moves the precip out faster but there is more of a window for frozen

[Ntxw]

GFS looks to be trending better ever so slightly

GFS is not as qpf heavy as the ICON but temperature wise they are close. I'd actually take the GFS s/w ejection because that would be pretty good for snow and hope for wetter trends at the surface.

[rwfromkansas]

Ice with snow on top ensures no school and many business closures even if it’s just an inch of snow like usual. But, it’s a fine line between fun and no power.

Back to the setup for the storm, what ejection of the NE bomb would help pump a ATL ridge?

[Brent]

Definitely better up here. Had like an inch last run

[Ntxw]

Ice with snow on top ensures no school and many business closures even if it’s just an inch of snow like usual. But, it’s a fine line between fun and no power.

Back to the setup for the storm, what ejection of the NE bomb would help pump a ATL ridge?

Chicken or the egg kind of question. A bomb means the pattern it sits in is amplified, everything is moving slow, thus it amps up. We get a pseudo-South Greenland block. Feedback it intensifies and slows everything down. Our trough would slow and we've mentioned a slower trough would pump up lots of moisture into the cold air.

[HockeyTx82]

Definitely better up here. Had like an inch last run

https://i.ibb.co/J3P3zhD/gfs-asnow-scus-28-1.png

Ummmmmm. DFW?

[somethingfunny]

Forecasters are going to have to be very careful with public messaging about this one... Texans are going to flip out over the first winter storm threat since 2021. May be a lot of people stocking up on supplies this weekend..

[gpsnowman]

Forecasters are going to have to be very careful with public messaging about this one... Texans are going to flip out over the first winter storm threat since 2021. May be a lot of people stocking up on supplies this weekend..

Agreed. None of the locals have really taken a big bite yet other than a possible light wintry mix with highs in the 40s. This could change quickly but I don't think we will have a Feb 21 repeat. It is nice to see the first real winter storm threat of the season potentially in our best month

[rwfromkansas]

Definitely better up here. Had like an inch last run

https://i.ibb.co/J3P3zhD/gfs-asnow-scus-28-1.png

Ummmmmm. DFW?

He’s in Tulsa, NE OK

[Haris]

Do not like seeing the CMC following the GFS with a faster progressive trough which doesnt dig as S. If thats the trend, this is over. I guess we can hope for a trend back since its still 6 days away

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe I’m just saying what I want to see, but I feel like the gfs is too progressive with the trough given the pattern predicted. I see ridging on the west coast, east coast, and Greenland at the time of transit, which would make me think that the progressive pattern we’ve seen up to now would be on hiatus

[Brent]

Definitely better up here. Had like an inch last run

https://i.ibb.co/J3P3zhD/gfs-asnow-scus-28-1.png

Ummmmmm. DFW?

He’s in Tulsa, NE OK

Yes true but if you look at the frames even in DFW it's been getting closer for several runs now. I was on the edge on the earlier runs and now it's down into Southern Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

Do not like seeing the CMC following the GFS with a faster progressive trough which doesnt dig as S. If thats the trend, this is over. I guess we can hope for a trend back since its still 6 days away

Fwiw whether one likes the model or not UKMET is less progressive.

[Haris]

Do not like seeing the CMC following the GFS with a faster progressive trough which doesnt dig as S. If thats the trend, this is over. I guess we can hope for a trend back since its still 6 days away

Fwiw whether one likes the model or not UKMET is less progressive.

Also

Pretty big slowing trend on the GEFS. opposite of GFS. Is that a future hint?

[txtwister78]

GEFS definitely slower and has more of its members with a mixed bag of winter precip across TX Thursday into Friday morning.

[SnowintheFalls]

I am coming back tomorrow from spending 2 weeks in snowy and bitterly cold Wisconsin. I am trying to bring back what I can as for wintry weather but I just want to leave that bitter cold up there!

[Sambucol]

ICON lol

Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.

ICOn has ice statewide. It just doesnt show on tidbits. Austins around 21.

Otherwise yes, if you werent referring to that specific model, yeah I agree. Its a long shot still

Does it show ice all the way to the upper Texas coast?