Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

300+ hours but why not? Mr HeatMiser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/WBVY3M7.png

https://i.imgur.com/CGHPmIa.gif

Majority of the State 15-25F below normal over a 10 day stretch...maybe the coldest GFS run I've ever witnessed!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_10day/1643371200/1644753600-4uMjuuL2aXY.png

This winter for the good and the bad, whichever pattern sets in tends to stick around for about 30-45 day period. That was the case in December and January. Slow moving MJO and the tropics have locked in patterns for long periods.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Guys, I feel I will be making an experience across Texas in the next 14 days.

Let’s roll!

[Ntxw]

There are quite a few GEFS members with a big snowfall hit in North Texas (parts of east, central, SW TX) too.

[WinterMax]

UKMET with limited data but 5h looks slower than GFS so it's likely a big hit with cold incoming.

How do we stand on this winter threat in central to south central Louisiana NTXW? Any thoughts?

[Haris]

There are quite a few GEFS members with a big snowfall hit in North Texas (parts of east, central, SW TX) too.

CMC ensembles, while not as good, was a good step in the right direction on the 500mb too

[wxman57]

Guys, I feel I will be making an experience across Texas in the next 14 days.

Let’s roll!

I'm not sure what that means. An "appearance"?

[wxman57]

For fun, I plotted the days 10-16 temps/precip from the 12Z GFS for Houston & Dallas. I don't think we would like a 36-hr freeze with ice again this February. Let's hope GFS backs off. I'll look at days 1-10 next.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHExtendedJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWExtendedJan28.JPG

[harp]

UKMET with limited data but 5h looks slower than GFS so it's likely a big hit with cold incoming.

How do we stand on this winter threat in central to south central Louisiana NTXW? Any thoughts?

Yes, I’d like to know that as well. You have several members over here in south Louisiana. Any response would be appreciated!

[Hurricane_Apu]

UKMET with limited data but 5h looks slower than GFS so it's likely a big hit with cold incoming.

How do we stand on this winter threat in central to south central Louisiana NTXW? Any thoughts?

Yes, I’d like to know that as well. You have several members over here in south Louisiana. Any response would be appreciated!

Model output so far, verbatim, suggests an outcome similar to last February... significant cold but mitigated by a strong SE ridge and not as severe as what happens in Texas.

Last year that was the difference between a once in 15-20 years event (LA) and a once in 50+ years event (TX). This year's event likely won't be as severe overall, but the west to east gradient will be similar.

[orangeblood]

There are quite a few GEFS members with a big snowfall hit in North Texas (parts of east, central, SW TX) too.

CMC ensembles, while not as good, was a good step in the right direction on the 500mb too

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JzrdHMw/cmc-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500-dprog-3857200.png [/url]

Wetter/Colder, much more so than its Operational

[wxman57]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeeeeaaahhhh next week looks cold lol.

I'll be in Crested butte, where the low is expected to get to -20. Lovely.

[Ntxw]

How do we stand on this winter threat in central to south central Louisiana NTXW? Any thoughts?

Yes, I’d like to know that as well. You have several members over here in south Louisiana. Any response would be appreciated!

Model output so far, verbatim, suggests an outcome similar to last February... significant cold but mitigated by a strong SE ridge and not as severe as what happens in Texas.

Last year that was the difference between a once in 15-20 years event (LA) and a once in 50+ years event (TX). This year's event likely won't be as severe overall, but the west to east gradient will be similar.

Some good thoughts. The PNA is changing from positive to slightly negative at the front of February so it will favor a Lakes cutter and west of the MS River cold at first. Really the Great Plains benefit the most from such a pattern. Northern LA may sit decent, the surface cold will try to press though. So definitely like last year, but I'd even compare it more to Superbowl week 2011.

[Haris]

Great improvements to the euro already!!!

Ridge gone over CA. Diving more SW and slower.

Edit; nevermind

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Guys, I feel I will be making an experience across Texas in the next 14 days.

Let’s roll!

I'm not sure what that means. An "appearance"?

Thunder Sleet, mi amor. Your favorite kind of Winter Weather!

[HockeyTx82]

Here are days 1-10 for Houston & D-FW. I think February 2 looks barely acceptable for February. Beyond then, not so much.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFSJan28.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFSJan28.JPG

Are gassing up the jet or are still in wait and see mode?

[txtwister78]

Not quite there yet on the Euro....trough still not deep enough. No development of an ULL in the southern branch.

[Ntxw]

Great improvements to the euro already!!!

Ridge gone over CA. Diving more SW and slower.

Edit; nevermind

Euro pulls the northern stream away, southern stream shears out, and incoming vorticity. Just put it all together already.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not quite there yet on the Euro....trough still not deep enough. No development of an ULL in the southern branch.

True but still a step in the right direction

[txtwister78]

Not quite there yet on the Euro....trough still not deep enough. No development of an ULL in the southern branch.

True but still a step in the right direction

It's incremental but again still 5-6 days out and we've seen some positive trends today...have to see what ENS and control run has.