Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

I hope the warm nose isn’t as strong as that. I like a little sleet. It cools the ground fast, provides a nice blanket for snow so everything is white etc. But, I don’t want just sleet! It is exciting to have something to watch either way as I am jealous of MA folks this weekend.

I'll happily take it over freezing rain, but I agree. Considering how the models tend to underestimate the southward progression of cold air, I wonder if that may mean the warm nose is being a little overexaggerated. It's hard to imagine pure sleet at 18 degrees but its possible. Maybe it'll be closer to a mix of sleet and snow in that situation?
'

Such set ups eventually switch to snow as the event nears. CAA with 1050hp doesn't usually provide that kind of icing duration. It's more likely in a closed low situ that plays with Pac moisture riding an inverted boundary. There may be some at the beginning. Something like what happened down in central Texas the week before snows last Feb is a better set up. Where the front slows, for example to the south, then those areas would not get the deeper push and could be icing. Just example.

[bubba hotep]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this



to this

[HockeyTx82]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

[bubba hotep]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

This is showing #1 from the FWD AFD:

However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area.

[Haris]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

Jet flank aimed at Texas giving us a boatload of pacific and gulf moisture and lift

[HockeyTx82]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

This is showing #1 from the FWD AFD:

However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area.

Trend is our friend..... see if not holds.

Can't wait for all of the Winter Cancel posts over the next few days with model swings.

[Texas Snow]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

See that dip and orange near El Paso in the first? Now look how the dip is further SW and the contour lines are a little more sharply angled and suggesting deeper low. So this shows a trend towards slowing in digging, on the GFS at least. FWD is looking to see that across the ensembles.

[WinterMax]

The trend has been colder. If not for what happened last Feb, this would be making pages here. Crazy to go 20+ years without single digits and do it back to back winters if it happened.

https://i.imgur.com/9BRpL9w.gif

Very strange to me how the 18z targets the Dallas area for extreme cold, and surrounding areas are warm in comparison. I'm guessing this is because snow and ice falls there and cools thw air significantly.

[bubba hotep]

The trend has been colder. If not for what happened last Feb, this would be making pages here. Crazy to go 20+ years without single digits and do it back to back winters if it happened.

https://i.imgur.com/9BRpL9w.gif

Very strange to me how the 18z targets the Dallas area for extreme cold, and surrounding areas are warm in comparison. I'm guessing this is because snow and ice falls there and cools thw air significantly.

Yes, it's because of how the GFS handles snow cover. Taken verbatim, that would rival last year with nearly a week below freezing for parts of N. Texas.

[orangeblood]

The trend on the GFS from 00z to 18z

From this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012800/gfs_z500_vort_namer_24.png

to this

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.png

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

This is showing #1 from the FWD AFD:

However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area.

Yep, very obvious trend across all ENS

[Ntxw]

Continues some very good big hitters on individual ENs members 18z gefs. Ceiling is high still.

[bubba hotep]

Meaning? I'm still learning on those maps.

This is showing #1 from the FWD AFD:

However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area.

Yep, very obvious trend across all ENS

Yea, I thought the ENS trend was very positive the last 24 hrs but FWD didn't seem impressed.

[Ntxw]

This is showing #1 from the FWD AFD:

However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area.

Yep, very obvious trend across all ENS

Yea, I thought the ENS trend was very positive the last 24 hrs but FWD didn't seem impressed.

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, very obvious trend across all ENS

Yea, I thought the ENS trend was very positive the last 24 hrs but FWD didn't seem impressed.

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

I expect them to be even more conservative than usual for the next couple days, even if trends continue, due to last years storm and the hype and weariness that surrounds it among the public. I’ve had family friends ask me in advance of some of our normal nightly freezes this year if they needed to worry about power or getting supplies. With last year’s storm still so fresh in everyone’s mind, I imagine the nws does not want to talk this up until it’s a sure thing

[Ntxw]

We miraculously get a -AO dip during the beginning of Feb to coincide with the -EPO. Does help the case a strong system indeed can dig south.

[bubba hotep]

Typically, all eyes are on the Pacific, but the next 48 hrs over the NATL are also critical to what happens next week across Texas. We have an explosive storm moving off the NE US, and the convection associated with that will pump latent heat. That will influence the downstream ridge and, if it is more amped up, then that will help buckle the flow. Global models handle this process pretty poorly since it is convectively driven. However, you can see the GFS trying to adjust to it with higher heights pushing northward towards Green Land. This will have upstream influences that could slow the incoming longwave trough and allow it to dig more into the SW.

[wxman57]

Pleased to see that the 18Z GFS trended much warmer for Houston around the 7th-9th. Upper 30s for lows vs. near 20. More reasonable a solution.

[orangeblood]

Yea, I thought the ENS trend was very positive the last 24 hrs but FWD didn't seem impressed.

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

I expect them to be even more conservative than usual for the next couple days, even if trends continue, due to last years storm and the hype and weariness that surrounds it among the public. I’ve had family friends ask me in advance of some of our normal nightly freezes this year if they needed to worry about power or getting supplies. With last year’s storm still so fresh in everyone’s mind, I imagine the nws does not want to talk this up until it’s a sure thing

The problem with this approach is relying too much on ERCOT to correct their mistakes from last year , do you have faith in that ? I sure don’t. IMO, best to get the word out now so most can prepare way ahead of time individually instead of relying on ERCOT to adequately supply them with electricity/heat. The “probability” basis FW NWS office is using for a winter storm doesn’t make a lot of sense….we’re looking at the same output they are and it’s greater than 20% and arguably quite significantly

[TheProfessor]

GFS deterministic has me between two storms pretty much. That'd suck if it happened but there's reason for optimism. The GEFS has improved each run for me with my snow mean going up and more members showing higher snow amounts. Additionally this screams being further south than the models have it so I almost don't mind being on the south edge of the heavy snow. Hoping I won't have to deal with ice here, but we also need the QPF so at this point I'll take it as I can get it.

[Quixotic]

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

I expect them to be even more conservative than usual for the next couple days, even if trends continue, due to last years storm and the hype and weariness that surrounds it among the public. I’ve had family friends ask me in advance of some of our normal nightly freezes this year if they needed to worry about power or getting supplies. With last year’s storm still so fresh in everyone’s mind, I imagine the nws does not want to talk this up until it’s a sure thing

The problem with this approach is relying too much on ERCOT to correct their mistakes from last year , do you have faith in that ? I sure don’t. IMO, best to get the word out now so most can prepare way ahead of time individually instead of relying on ERCOT to adequately supply them with electricity/heat. The “probability” basis FW NWS office is using for a winter storm doesn’t make a lot of sense….we’re looking at the same output they are and it’s greater than 20% and arguably quite significantly

ERCOT will not have their stuff together. Selfishly, I’d like for it to be a bit quieter so I can stock up before there’s a mad rush for food and water. Got a 1/2 cord of wood left so that’s a plus.