Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Sambucol]

Just wanted to note GFS brings the secondary cold surge over the weekend next week past the first blitz. Colder than Thurs-Fri. So far it's been consistent showing it while the other models are meh. Not going to lie it brings back eerie feels of 2021 when the GFS kept it at against the world.

Wxman57 mentioned the next one is what he was watching more than this one.

[Iceresistance]

ICON is showing a strong Warm Nose on the soundings, if the system is a little farther south with more moisture (Especially the first part), that may defeat the Warm Nose feature.

[wxman57]

Just wanted to note GFS brings the secondary cold surge over the weekend next week past the first blitz. Colder than Thurs-Fri. So far it's been consistent showing it while the other models are meh. Not going to lie it brings back eerie feels of 2021 when the GFS kept at it against the world.

Wxman57 mentioned the next one is what he was watching more than this one.

The "next one" was way out in fantasy land and only in the GFS. It gave up on that idea yesterday. This could be a significant freezing rain and sleet event for TX next Thu-Sun. It's moving into the time frame where the models could be right. Models are indicating a large, shallow area of sub-freezing temps at the surface. The sub-freezing layer may not be deep enough for a lot of snow, but it would certainly be deep enough for an ice storm. The farther north in TX, the more sleet vs. freezing rain. There would be snow, too, but the main impact would be the icy conditions on roadways and power lines.

[Haris]

Just wanted to note GFS brings the secondary cold surge over the weekend next week past the first blitz. Colder than Thurs-Fri. So far it's been consistent showing it while the other models are meh. Not going to lie it brings back eerie feels of 2021 when the GFS kept at it against the world.

Wxman57 mentioned the next one is what he was watching more than this one.

The "next one" was way out in fantasy land and only in the GFS. It gave up on that idea yesterday. This could be a significant freezing rain and sleet event for TX next Thu-Sun. It's moving into the time frame where the models could be right. Models are indicating a large, shallow area of sub-freezing temps at the surface. The sub-freezing layer may not be deep enough for a lot of snow, but it would certainly be deep enough for an ice storm. The farther north in TX, the more sleet vs. freezing rain. There would be snow, too, but the main impact would be the icy conditions on roadways and power lines.

I think I love you

[bubba hotep]

Large portion of Texas is already in the 20s at this point, including DFW. I don't look at the ICON often but wow...

[wxman57]

Wxman57 mentioned the next one is what he was watching more than this one.

The "next one" was way out in fantasy land and only in the GFS. It gave up on that idea yesterday. This could be a significant freezing rain and sleet event for TX next Thu-Sun. It's moving into the time frame where the models could be right. Models are indicating a large, shallow area of sub-freezing temps at the surface. The sub-freezing layer may not be deep enough for a lot of snow, but it would certainly be deep enough for an ice storm. The farther north in TX, the more sleet vs. freezing rain. There would be snow, too, but the main impact would be the icy conditions on roadways and power lines.

I think I love you

Do you understand that I'm not talking about a pretty, fluffy white snowflake event, I'm concerned about a significant ice storm that would make travel quite difficult and possibly knock out your power for days? That's my concern. Snow is fun, freezing rain is the opposite of fun. I notice the GFS has sub-zero temps in the D-FW area Monday night due to all the ice on the ground. Better start chopping some firewood.

[Iceresistance]

The "next one" was way out in fantasy land and only in the GFS. It gave up on that idea yesterday. This could be a significant freezing rain and sleet event for TX next Thu-Sun. It's moving into the time frame where the models could be right. Models are indicating a large, shallow area of sub-freezing temps at the surface. The sub-freezing layer may not be deep enough for a lot of snow, but it would certainly be deep enough for an ice storm. The farther north in TX, the more sleet vs. freezing rain. There would be snow, too, but the main impact would be the icy conditions on roadways and power lines.

I think I love you

Do you understand that I'm not talking about a pretty, fluffy white snowflake event, I'm concerned about a significant ice storm that would make travel quite difficult and possibly knock out your power for days? That's my concern. Snow is fun, freezing rain is the opposite of fun. I notice the GFS has sub-zero temps in the D-FW area Monday night due to all the ice on the ground. Better start chopping some firewood.

I've experienced Ice Storms before, they are no fun.

[TexasF6]

Oh shoot. 57 has spoken. I am concerned about both systems. Porta???

[kingwood_tx1999]

Is wxman57 talking about a freezing rain event here in the Houston area and the coast or is he talking about up in north Texas and just rain here in and around houston?

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[Portastorm]

Oh shoot. 57 has spoken. I am concerned about both systems. Porta???

I’m with him … if we see the Euro today caving towards the others, it’s time to get ready.

[gpsnowman]

This could get real interesting folks. I am already looking into a hotel room close to my job just in case. Also considering what to do if my daughter misses school and my wife misses work. Freezing rain is awful so hopefully we get mostly sleet with some snow mixed in.

[Cerlin]

Yeah that 6z GFS run was not what I wanted. Two ice storms for NTX and me in Norman. We’re still dealing with tree damage from the October 2020 ice storm up here, and with projected ice accumulations of over half an inch, that would seriously compromise some infrastructure. Hoping for a more amplified shortwave for the 12z run (assuming that solution would lead to more snowfall over ice).

[Iceresistance]

Yeah that 6z GFS run was not what I wanted. Two ice storms for NTX and me in Norman. We’re still dealing with tree damage from the October 2020 ice storm up here, and with projected ice accumulations of over half an inch, that would seriously compromise some infrastructure. Hoping for a more amplified shortwave for the 12z run (assuming that solution would lead to more snowfall over ice).

Also considering the Warm Nose, the 6z ICON Soundings does take note of that.

[Iceresistance]

I do believe that most of the Mesoscale models will be in range for this storm system by the start of February

[Cerlin]

Yeah that 6z GFS run was not what I wanted. Two ice storms for NTX and me in Norman. We’re still dealing with tree damage from the October 2020 ice storm up here, and with projected ice accumulations of over half an inch, that would seriously compromise some infrastructure. Hoping for a more amplified shortwave for the 12z run (assuming that solution would lead to more snowfall over ice).

Also considering the Warm Nose, the 6z ICON Soundings does take note of that.

Yeah that warm nose is gonna kill us, so I’m hoping that whatever precipitation happens lags behind until it’s been eroded.

[ElectricStorm]

Yikes that's a nasty GFS run
No thanks

[Iceresistance]

Yikes that's a nasty GFS run
No thanks

Do you already have the 12z run, or still seeing the 0z & 6z runs?

[wxman57]

Is wxman57 talking about a freezing rain event here in the Houston area and the coast or is he talking about up in north Texas and just rain here in and around houston?

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Let me ask him... He says "yes, possibly freezing rain in Houston. It's not a guarantee yet, just a possibility".

[gboudx]

Seeing the Heat Miser onboard gives me pause. Before last year's event, I went and got another 1/4 cord of firewood after reading all the posts here, and 57's in particular. Good thing I did because that firewood yard sold out about 4 days later after the storm hit. This place had several dozen full cords of firewood too. And boy did we need that wood. The constant rolling blackouts got the house cold, but the firewood kept the living room nice and cozy. Even though I still have about a 1/8 cord left, I'm going buy another 1/4 on Monday. If we don't need it, it'll be well seasoned and dry from sitting out in the sure to come summer heat.

[Cerlin]

12z ICON doesn’t show much change. Still unrelenting.