Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

While we wait for the winter weather event, Monday continues to look active for parts of South Central and East TX (mainly east of I-35). Could see some much-needed rain and a few strong storms (especially across Houston metro).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKS7kUtVQAAhxwB?format=jpg&name=medium

The models have trended more south and southwest with Mondays system. Maybe more towards Victoria and Rockport now.

HRRR begs to differ

[Cpv17]

While we wait for the winter weather event, Monday continues to look active for parts of South Central and East TX (mainly east of I-35). Could see some much-needed rain and a few strong storms (especially across Houston metro).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKS7kUtVQAAhxwB?format=jpg&name=medium

The models have trended more south and southwest with Mondays system. Maybe more towards Victoria and Rockport now.

Depends on the model but I think the WPC outlook handles that system well. CMC probably the outlier (further south) but GFS and Euro on track

Yeah I saw that the Euro and GFS have it where the SPC have it but the mesoscale models have it further southwest.

Edit never mind now it looks to be more back towards my area lol

[Cpv17]

While we wait for the winter weather event, Monday continues to look active for parts of South Central and East TX (mainly east of I-35). Could see some much-needed rain and a few strong storms (especially across Houston metro).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKS7kUtVQAAhxwB?format=jpg&name=medium

The models have trended more south and southwest with Mondays system. Maybe more towards Victoria and Rockport now.

HRRR begs to differ

Yeah some of the earlier models I looked at had it going more southwest but now looks like they shifted back.

[txtwister78]

While we wait for the winter weather event, Monday continues to look active for parts of South Central and East TX (mainly east of I-35). Could see some much-needed rain and a few strong storms (especially across Houston metro).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKS7kUtVQAAhxwB?format=jpg&name=medium

I mentioned that a few days ago. It seems like a lot of big winter wx systems over the years have had sneaky little svr wx events that no one tracked.

Yup. I've seen that before although typically from my recollection those are bigger/more widespread events that alter jet/pattern that can lead to arctic air intrusions. I think there has been some papers/discussion on that but I can't remember where I read it.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley is on board the winter weather train for next week!!

[Brent]

Steve McCauley is on board the winter weather train for next week!!

Full post for anyone not on Facebook

[Texas Snow]

Steve McCauley is on board the winter weather train for next week!!

Full post for anyone not on Facebook

https://i.ibb.co/2MRKwht/Screenshot-20220129-153312.png

I’ve been eagerly waiting his opinion as my final major datapoint to either reinforce what we already believed or to find something we’ve missed. Wow.

[rwfromkansas]

IWeathernet is getting close as well, so confidence is higher than normal at this range with Steve and Evan all in.

[Quixotic]

Looking good so far. Grocery run tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

18z ICON has trended further SE with the snow, waiting for the final verdict for the Winter Precip type for DFW

[Brent]

18z ICON has trended further SE with the snow, waiting for the final verdict for the Winter Precip type for DFW

it's still snowing when the run ends NW of DFW and most of Oklahoma

[txtwister78]

Just keeps getting better (or worse) depending on how you look at this event.

[Brent]

One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon

[bubba hotep]

One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon

https://i.ibb.co/8K71xsf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-20.png

Looking at soundings and adjusting surface temp lower to account for bias, there is going to be widespread thunder freezing rain or sleet. We could even see svr warned thunder sleet storms!!

[Brent]

Over a foot for OKC and Tulsa

[orangeblood]

One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon

https://i.ibb.co/8K71xsf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-20.png

Looking at soundings and adjusting surface temp lower to account for bias, there is going to be widespread thunder freezing rain or sleet. We could even see svr warned thunder sleet storms!!

both GFS and Euro going negative tilt, Crippling Ice Storm…no bueno! This looks more extreme than December 2013 for DFW

[Ntxw]

One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon

https://i.ibb.co/8K71xsf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-20.png

Looking at soundings and adjusting surface temp lower to account for bias, there is going to be widespread thunder freezing rain or sleet. We could even see svr warned thunder sleet storms!!

both GFS and Euro going negative tilt, Crippling Ice Storm…no bueno! This looks more extreme than December 2013 for DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1643479200/1644030000-hZFLdSq1bWo.png

From the coarse globals. Can't wait to see the Hi Res guidance. This is the big one writing on the wall all over it. Thunderstorms overriding frigid cold.

[Iceresistance]

DFW still has a nasty Ice Storm from 18z ICON, but the Warm Nose is getting weaker. I hope that's the case when it comes.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/92132683.gif

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has a secondary system not long after the big storm, 12z GEFS had some members do that.

[Cerlin]

The 18z GFS trended deeper with the trough, the warm nose is much weaker over Norman and OKC. I’d guess snow ratios will be closer to 8:1 with the GFS solution but it arguably makes the frozen rain situation worse for DFW which is not good. I have a hard time believing south Oklahoma will see 5 inches of sleet.