Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

Below freezing in Dallas til Monday.

Also 95% of GEFS members now have ice over TX

[Ntxw]

Below freezing in Dallas til Monday.

Also 95% of GEFS members now have ice over TX

Yeah, any talk of low chance is now really sitting on air. There are very few, if any models that show nada. It gets criticized when odds are lower of grasping straws one way, got to call it out the other way as well.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1487498931894464527

[ThunderSleetDreams]

One word... Wow this is Thursday afternoon

https://i.ibb.co/8K71xsf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-20.png

Looking at soundings and adjusting surface temp lower to account for bias, there is going to be widespread thunder freezing rain or sleet. We could even see svr warned thunder sleet storms!!

Stop it. I have a tingle

[SouthernMet]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1487498931894464527?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I hate to be the one to say it - but this is looking much worse for DFW precipitation/impacts wise than Feb 21. Models are all in agreement on some insane QPF falling with temps in the teens/low 20’s. What made last year so bad was the 2 weeks of sub freezing temps. The way it’s looking now we will stay below freezing for atleast 5 days and potentially longer.

[Cerlin]

Yeah I’m letting my family in DFW know ASAP. I have some grandparents who live on their own—last thing I need is some ice to hurt them. I’d rather jump the gun than leave them unprepared. Do the same for y’all’s family members too in the coming days—ice storms aren’t something you want to be unprepared for, especially when 95% of models are showing significant ice at this point. NAM seems to be around the same general area at the end of its run as the GFS and ICON, so I’m believing it will follow suit.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1487498931894464527?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I hate to be the one to say it - but this is looking much worse for DFW precipitation/impacts wise than Feb 21. Models are all in agreement on some insane QPF falling with temps in the teens/low 20’s. What made last year so bad was the 2 weeks of sub freezing temps. The way it’s looking now we will stay below freezing for atleast 5 days and potentially longer.

I've been thinking the same thing too, I'm seeing a Multi-Million Dollar disaster coming for DFW . . .

[DallasAg]

Looking at the DFW record books for Feb 2-5...a couple of records to watch:

Feb 2 - Snowfall 1.5" (1996)
Feb 3 - Snowfall .2" (2011), Minimum Temp 14 (1996)
Feb 5 - Minimum Temp 12 (1912)

Still lots of timing, temp, and p-type details to sort out over the next 96 hours (!), but will be interesting to see if the cold and sleet/snow end up being enough to set records.

[Ntxw]

It's also going to be very cold. I hear a lot of it's not the same as last year etc. -2 or 8 all is cold the same. Thursday and Friday will spend much of the day hovering teens.

[Texas Snow]

Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.

[orangeblood]

Below freezing in Dallas til Monday.

Also 95% of GEFS members now have ice over TX

Yeah, any talk of low chance is now really sitting on air. There are very few, if any models that show nada. It gets criticized when odds are lower of grasping straws one way, got to call it out the other way as well.

It really is…noticed that on the FW NWS discussion and thought how can any professional write that with a straight face. Literally nothing they’re looking at is telling them low chance event at this point

[orangeblood]

Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.

Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful

[Iceresistance]

Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.

NWS-Norman does not want very much precip.

[Ntxw]

GEFS 18z upped again. 4-6" broadbrushing NTX. Oklahoma Tundra.

[rwfromkansas]

GEFS 18z upped again. 4-6" broadbrushing NTX. Oklahoma Tundra.

https://i.imgur.com/i6S3n7C.png

That is rapidly increasing. Huge increase.

[Ntxw]

Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.

Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful

I'm not sure I agree with deceitful. I think they are waiting on WPC or some other validation source, but I don't know that for a fact. They do say significant event signal is there but are on the low end of spectrum. I'm all for analytics and statistics, I was just saying if that's the source originally then you got to stick with it for consistency. I don't see a problem noting statistics have shifted.

[Iceresistance]

Might be in the long range, but 18z GFS has a Polar Vortex Invasion in the middle of February.

[txtwister78]

Odd that the FWD NWS is being so conservative in the AFD. I get it to the general public you’ve got to ease into this a little bit, but only weather nerds read the AFD and this seems like they’re downplaying significantly. Or they are looking at more factors that could limit.

As it is still early to narrow down amounts and p-type, the
same goes with the expected impacts. Our key message is that the
signal for a significant event is there (while low at this time),
there`s also a possibility that things go the other way with low
very minimal accumulations/impacts. So, make sure to keep checking
the updates as we continue to refine the details.

Seems pretty irresponsible and deceitful

It's also par for the course quite frankly with regional offices 4-5 days out of an "event". I've never once seen a forecast or an AFD that wasn't "conservative" with temp forecast or discussion (winter precip & accumulation) when mentioning winter weather here in TX in the medium range. Forecasters (fair or not) I think are more worried about a bust in the other direction when in reality I've always argued for the latter (make sure the public is prepared for the worst), however when you're sitting in that seat and with the experience they have along with analogs/data they're combing through, tough to over think/critique it. Much easier to do that here. Deceit pretty strong though.

[Portastorm]

Wearing my Moderator hat —

Gang, let’s get a grip here. I know you North Texas folk are frothing at the mouth at the prospect of a possible winter weather event, but let’s cool it with the criticism of the NWS office. There’s been a few sharp, judgmental comments and that goes over the line per our rules. Please be mindful of that before you post. Thanks.

[Ntxw]

San Angelo's AFD is a pretty good one. I think it highlights pretty well what most in the northern half of the state should be in for as far as real time effects.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022

An upper level low is forecast to be centered across Southeast New
Mexico Sunday evening, then track across West Central Texas Monday
morning. As this feature approaches, expect an increase in cloud
cover along with an increasing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Rainfall totals look to generally remain below one
quarter inch for most locations, although some higher totals are
possible, mainly across the Heartland and northwest Hill Country.
Rain chances are forecast to quickly end from west to east late
Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in
the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Above normal temperatures are
forecast on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for
most locations.

On Wednesday, a broad upper level trough is forecast to deepen from
the northern Great Plains down toward the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile, an arctic airmass is forecast to spill south across the
Great Plains, with the Arctic cold front moving into the Big Country
early Wednesday and then through the rest of the area Wednesday
afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will likely occur in the
morning, with temperatures steadily falling through the day.
Temperatures are forecast to continue to fall overnight, with low
temperatures Thursday morning in the teens to near 20 degrees. Brisk
north winds will likely result in wind chill values in the single
digits, with locations across the Big Country possibly seeing values
below zero.

The next concern is the potential for a wintry mix, Wednesday night
into Thursday. The 12Z ECMWF and Canadian have come into better
agreement with the GFS, in showing a slower approach by the
aforementioned upper level trough. This results in better
precipitation chances across the region, Wednesday into Thursday
morning. With temperatures quickly falling below freezing Wednesday
evening, a wintry mix will be possible, with the best chances across
our eastern counties. Current indications are that a warm nose aloft
will likely result in either a sleet or freezing rain initially,
with a transition to snow as temperatures aloft cool. The details on
the precipitation types will become more evident as we get closer to
the event. Cold temperatures are then forecast on Thursday, with
highs generally in the 30s (although the all 3 models are indicating
highs in the 20s for most locations). A very slow warm up is then
forecast through the weekend, although temperatures will still remain
below normal, especially on Friday.