Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.

But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?

Best guess I can give is probably out of the WPC. Just from tracking and reading AFDs for awhile, local WFOs lately have waited for data out of the national center and incorporate that. As I mentioned earlier I don't know the exact processes but these days it seems there's a central body that helps filter out some of the forecasting.

Maybe this is where the 1 in 3 comes from?
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_ ... .php?day=5

[Iceresistance]

But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?

Could it be the NWS Blend of Models that is only seeable from Pivotal Weather Plus?

Here the latest NBM output, like the rest, getting really aggressive with QPF

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_precip_inch/1643500800/1643997600-AkZ4TxY7fAs.png
Snowfall
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643500800/1643997600-8jqFwqm9TIE.png

I did find the Temperature mode that anyone can use for now. (Until it's upgraded to NBM v4.1)

https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/graphics.php

[TheProfessor]

This is exactly what I want to see for QPF GEFS, mean is around 0.75 and heavily clustered between 0.6" and 1.0" so it's not a few high end members upping the mean. There are a few low end members still so that potential is there, but it's less now. I only have to hope the GEFS is correct right now lol.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/gZ9MGLn/GEFS-QPF.png [/url]

Hi professor. Could you post or check the 18zgefs for kjbr which is jonesboro ar and see how much qpf for my area and how much would be frozen? Thanks in advance

Don't have time to post the image myself, wil be heading to work soon. You can play around with this link, it's free to the public (There's a better one for NWS Employees). Looks like the most dominant P-type for you right now is rain. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg ... nname=KJBR

[TheProfessor]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Seems to be trending more amplified. Someone's going to get blitzed. Definitely reminding me of the 2011 storm.

[Iceresistance]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Seems to be trending more amplified. Someone's going to get blitzed. Definitely reminding me of the 2011 storm.

It's either Enid, Ponca City, Tulsa, Stillwater, OKC, &/or me that will get absolutely hammered by this, we've yet to see the ceiling of this monster storm.

Only time will tell if I'm going to get blitzed, I've warned the Student Principal about this & she said that 20 inches of Sleet/Snow 'is a lot!'

[Brent]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Seems to be trending more amplified. Someone's going to get blitzed. Definitely reminding me of the 2011 storm.

The ceiling is definitely high and I actually thought about that earlier. I had just been reading about it last week too because of course I wasn't here then

[Iceresistance]

0z NAM is barely in range for the beginning stages of the potent storm, after that, someone is going to get NAMed.

[txtwister78]

Responsible and a good graphic overall to understand, I think by FWD. The only thing I would change would be the "nuisance impacts" category. I would just combine that with the other category (some impacts) just for messaging purposes.

But where is this data coming from ? Some proprietary model we don’t know about ? Anyone have access to it ?

No idea, but if I were to guess I would say they're taking into account a variety of factors other than just looking at every incoming model output 4-5 days out (which still shows some minor variability). Some of these folks I would imagine are looking at analogs and also considering the drought/pattern we've been stuck under for months and as I mentioned earlier, they're never going to yell "fire" 4-5 days out with winter precip/cold outbreaks down here. I get everything right now points to a strong signal of a significant winter precip event in N & W TX and it's a fine line to push the "red alert" button when you know the effect that's going to have on the general public (panic shopping, increased anxiety for some due to last year etc). Not saying that's a reason not to do it btw...but no doubt they're probably considering that.

Having said that, I've always taken the approach with weather (particularly severe weather) that when it comes to life and property, there is no such thing as over preparedness, however I'm not sitting behind that decision desk where what I do can impact millions either way. That's a big responsibility to have. Models as we've seen before can change dramatically 4-5 days out and while it doesn't appear that will occur here (extreme changes due to good model agreement), I'm reluctant to critique those decision makers because I don't have the information they're using or the experience quite frankly that they do. I just feel the best you can do is get the word out to family/friends and self-prepare.

[gpsnowman]

Is the next GFS at 10 o'clock? I am an early to bed early to rise kinda guy but I am off tomorrow. I think I need another set of beautiful(hopefully snow and sleet) winter maps before heading to bed.

[HockeyTx82]

Only thing I don't have is a generator.

I've got about 10 small cans of propane for cooking and heating.

Bottles of water and batteries. Cold gear camping gear.

At least if the power goes out it will be cold enough to keep food cold outside like last time.

Buckle up folks, looks like this week could get interesting.

My wife has knee surgery Wednesday morning......

[Iceresistance]

Is the next GFS at 10 o'clock? I am an early to bed early to rise kinda guy but I am off tomorrow. I think I need another set of beautiful(hopefully snow and sleet) winter maps before heading to bed.

I believe so, Today is Saturday so I can stay up later tonight.

[Ntxw]

Is the next GFS at 10 o'clock? I am an early to bed early to rise kinda guy but I am off tomorrow. I think I need another set of beautiful(hopefully snow and sleet) winter maps before heading to bed.

10:30-11 should have what we need from gfs, Canadian, gefs, and UKMET to fill appetite. Just euro is past midnight for timeframe.

[Texas Snow]

Is the next GFS at 10 o'clock? I am an early to bed early to rise kinda guy but I am off tomorrow. I think I need another set of beautiful(hopefully snow and sleet) winter maps before heading to bed.

You can probably see what you want to see by 10:15-10:30 maybe?

[Ntxw]

Here comes 0z King ICON. About to hit the frames.

[Iceresistance]

Here comes 0z King ICON. About to hit the frames.

Yep! I'll also be waiting for the final verdict on WeatherNerds for ICON as well.

[gpsnowman]

Is the next GFS at 10 o'clock? I am an early to bed early to rise kinda guy but I am off tomorrow. I think I need another set of beautiful(hopefully snow and sleet) winter maps before heading to bed.

10:30-11 should have what we need from gfs, Canadian, gefs, and UKMET to fill appetite. Just euro is past midnight for timeframe.

Thanks for the info. I'll try although the Merlot is working its sleepy magic.

[Cpv17]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Look at that southeast ridge creeping closer and closer.. that might keep southeast Texas from getting any winter weather.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Look at that southeast ridge creeping closer and closer.. that might keep southeast Texas from getting any winter weather.

The SE ridge would help SETX get winter weather… would hold precip back slower for the cold to reach us

[Cpv17]

Trends from the gfs ens the past series of runs. There's good reason to believe we should continue the path to a colder trend.

https://i.imgur.com/avKNHT3.gif

https://i.imgur.com/vlGaBfx.gif

Look at that southeast ridge creeping closer and closer.. that might keep southeast Texas from getting any winter weather.

The SE ridge would help SETX get winter weather… would hold precip back slower for the cold to reach us

I hope so. I just don’t want it poking its head too far west.

[Texas Snow]

ICON looks slightly faster

“Rain” at 20 degrees at 6am at dfw

Gone by noon

Edit: Cold there sooner as well. Freezing before 9 pm with precip