Texas Snow wrote:ICON looks slightly faster
“Rain” at 20 degrees at 6am.
Gone by noon
More QPF as well.
(And also, you can see the full precip. modes on WeatherNerds for ICON)
Texas Winter 2021-2022
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
More QPF as well.
(And also, you can see the full precip. modes on WeatherNerds for ICON)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snow wrote:ICON looks slightly faster
“Rain” at 20 degrees at 6am.
Gone by noon
It's also bringing the cold faster. Freeze line hitting closer to 0z Thurs (Weds around 6pm). Majority of precip comes after. Over-all not too dramatic changes for it.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Texas Snow wrote:ICON looks slightly faster
“Rain” at 20 degrees at 6am.
Gone by noon
It's also bringing the cold faster. Freeze line hitting closer to 0z Thurs (Weds around 6pm). Majority of precip comes after. Over-all not too dramatic changes for it.
I've noticed that it's been showing a second wave of snow for Oklahoma for quite some time now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
This may be the story in the trends the next couple of days, even for the ICON. DFW from 60s to 30s swing of about a day's worth of runs for the same time period.
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Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
GFS starting now for anybody that wants to follow the fun
Through 66 hours looks similar but also just a tad bit faster
Through 66 hours looks similar but also just a tad bit faster
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
0z ICON still has the Crippling Ice Storm for DFW
0z GFS trends more southward again
0z GFS trends more southward again
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Texas Snow wrote:GFS starting now for anybody that wants to follow the fun
Through 66 hours looks similar but also just a tad bit faster
0C 850 freezing (aloft) is faster.
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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
GFS is progressive ish but a slam run for Tx
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Texas Snow wrote:GFS starting now for anybody that wants to follow the fun
Through 66 hours looks similar but also just a tad bit faster
0C 850 freezing (aloft) is faster.
You can see the GFS trying to play catchup with this dense cold air mass. The trend goes from nearly 60s in DFW to mid to low 40s in a short series of runs. I think this trend continues and we also see the entire column cool faster, this will be more of a sleet/snow event than a freezing rain event for DFW.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:Texas Snow wrote:GFS starting now for anybody that wants to follow the fun
Through 66 hours looks similar but also just a tad bit faster
0C 850 freezing (aloft) is faster.
You can see the GFS trying to play catchup with this dense cold air mass. The trend goes from nearly 60s in DFW to mid to low 40s in a short series of runs. I think this trend continues and we also see the entire column cool faster, this will be more of a sleet/snow event than a freezing rain event for DFW.
https://i.ibb.co/52pxfcY/gfs-T2m-us-fh96-trend.gif
In fact, it looks like almost no rain for DFW on this run. It goes straight to winter precipitation types.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
This would be quite the snowstorm in OK if this verifies.
Unfortunately this would be a disaster for parts of TX (and E AR, yikes)
Unfortunately this would be a disaster for parts of TX (and E AR, yikes)
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Another crazy Sleet/Snow totals, but nothing compared to 18z (Weather Dude mentioned the totals, but not the trend)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I'm going to see the 0z GEFS before going to bed.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013000/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png
I'd agree with that. Even sleet at 20F is crazy. Especially when the warm nose isn't that thick at all.
Anyone notice the pressure gradient between 1051HP to the north and LP to the east? Didn't want to say the B word yet.
6 likes
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013000/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png
I'd agree with that. Even sleet at 20F is crazy. Especially when the warm nose isn't that thick at all.
Anyone notice the pressure gradient between 1051HP to the north and LP to the east? Didn't want to say the B word yet.
3 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013000/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png
I'd agree with that. Even sleet at 20F is crazy. Especially when the warm nose isn't that thick at all.
Anyone notice the pressure gradient between 1051HP to the north and LP to the east? Didn't want to say the B word yet.
You hush right now!!
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013000/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png
I'd agree with that. Even sleet at 20F is crazy. Especially when the warm nose isn't that thick at all.
Anyone notice the pressure gradient between 1051HP to the north and LP to the east? Didn't want to say the B word yet.
Yeah it's been floating in my head today
Anyway maybe not quite as impressive but still a foot showing up here.
hard to believe
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Wow! This board is really lighting up. Been out working on the new place near Albany Texas. Stopped on the way through town and grabbed a big ole BLIZZARD from DQ.
Last edited by EnnisTx on Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
-2 in Dallas on GFs.
It’s possible.
It’s possible.
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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