Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Lock it in. I'm buying snow/sleet vs. freezing rain for DFW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013000/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

I'd agree with that. Even sleet at 20F is crazy. Especially when the warm nose isn't that thick at all.

Anyone notice the pressure gradient between 1051HP to the north and LP to the east? Didn't want to say the B word yet.

Yeah it's been floating in my head today

Anyway maybe not quite as impressive but still a foot showing up here. hard to believe

For you folks up there you have to take into account the maps are 10:1. Ratios will be higher. Even a little qpf can generate half a foot.

[EnnisTx]

-2 in Dallas on GFs.

It’s possible.

Absolutely hope that doesn't happen after last year. Bring the cold and snow, but that's gonna cause havoc if it verifies.

[Ntxw]

-2 in Dallas on GFs.

It’s possible.

Absolutely hope that doesn't happen after last year. Bring the cold and snow, but that's gonna cause havoc if it verifies.

For DFW (a lot of NTX) would rival the 3-4 day core of last year, if it happens. This hasn't been the only GFS run to do it either, it's been spitting it out whenever there is ice/snow on the ground. How many more maps do we need? .

[Snowman67]

Models keeping it all rain here in SE Texas at this point.

[EnnisTx]

-2 in Dallas on GFs.

It’s possible.

Absolutely hope that doesn't happen after last year. Bring the cold and snow, but that's gonna cause havoc if it verifies.

For DFW (a lot of NTX) would rival the 3-4 day core of last year, if it happens. This hasn't been the only GFS run to do it either, it's been spitting it out whenever there is ice/snow on the ground. How many more maps do we need? .

I've seen enough to think this is going to get ugly real quick. I love winter weather and seeing all the excitement on here makes us all feel like a kid again. Hopefully we all keep power this time.

[Brent]

somehow the GEFS got more aggressive

[Ntxw]

Canadian is coming in colder.

[EnnisTx]

:double: somehow the GEFS got more aggressive

https://i.ibb.co/ZSpj6Mv/snod-conus-3.png

All I can say is wow! This just keeps progressing.

[Haris]

CMC with a nice trowal of snow across N Texas.

Overall trend tonight is faster, slightly N, but colder too. So all in all not much difference.

Really the only thing that may go wrong is exactly how more it gets progressive, if any. We should know that by tomorrow night.

[txtwister78]

-2 in Dallas on GFs.

It’s possible.

Yup, but also highly dependent on where heaviest winter precip ends up. Those surface negative temps are based on what the model thinks is a lot of ice and some snow on the ground. Could see some wild temp swings though depending on how that plays out (18z and 0z really show that with temps/precip differences) with a slightly faster/progressive 0z GFS as you mentioned earlier.

[bevolon]

I am just a winter weather lover and I really enjoy everyone's comment on here!

a question I have is why is it that the local meteorologist seems to downplay the strength of all of this?

[IcyTundra]

I am just a winter weather lover and I really enjoy everyone's comment on here!

a question I have is why is it that the local meteorologist seems to downplay the strength of all of this?

It is always a challenge to forecast winter weather in Texas most likely they don't want to gurantee something that could still fall through. I am confident that the DFW will get some winter weather but it could easily end up being a relatively minor event compared to what the models are showing right now.

[Texas Snow]

I am just a winter weather lover and I really enjoy everyone's comment on here!

a question I have is why is it that the local meteorologist seems to downplay the strength of all of this?

Still some things up in the air and also with the general public you ease into it, each day you gain more confidence you strengthen the message. You have to remember they are a highly criticized profession by people that don’t understand anything. If you blow one of these it just makes people ignore the message even more. It’s a careful balancing act. It may not be as extreme as these models are showing as it’s 5 days away, so for now you just say “mix”, don’t give amounts, and adjust from there.

[bubba hotep]

I am just a winter weather lover and I really enjoy everyone's comment on here!

a question I have is why is it that the local meteorologist seems to downplay the strength of all of this?

I'll chime in as a fellow fed; the NWS WFOs do consider the societal impact of their forecast (trying to find the balance between lead time on a forecast vs. how people will react to it). All the science agencies have spent a lot of time on sci com over the past years (I don't necessarily think that it's made things better) and it has certainly made SR mgt much more conservative with messaging (Not always a bad thing and how it is applied can vary wildly from one office to the next or from one agency to the next). Long story short, the safe play usually pays off in the end but it can burn you when ignoring the fat tails.

[TropicalTundra]

NAMs showing the cold front faster than most of the globals so far. NAM has cold front through I-35 already by Wednesday 6 am. GFS has it through I-35 by noon. NAM also has it about 5-10 degrees colder than all the globals as well. I would say when the NAM gets in range of the actual storm it will probably have the freezing rain transition zone a lot farther south than what the GFS was showing. It'll probably also have Dallas with a lot more snow (hopefully.) I don't live in Dallas sadly but I'm certain you guys will have a lot more snow than ice.

[Haris]

Overshadowed by the winter storm, some signifcant rain ahead for Central Texas Monday. 1 - 4". Slow moving low. Maybe flash flooding.

[Cpv17]

Models keeping it all rain here in SE Texas at this point.

Yeah it’s not looking too good for us at the moment. 0z GFS/GEFS
did look slightly better though.

[Texas Snow]

Peeking at the hi-res 12k Nam at 0Z (which will be better in range tomorrow night), at hour 78 the 12z is faster with the 500 low as the other models have shown at 0Z. Just an observation to watch how all future runs trend.

Dang it, beat by a better NAM analysis. Nice work

[Cerlin]

Man, every run I keep thinking there’s gonna be a step back from the models but it keeps getting more bullish. Insane!

[orangeblood]

CMC has .5-.75 “ FrRN 1.5-2” Sleet then 4-6” Snow on back end across DFW…that would be a Dallas Stars ice rink/travel killer for several days looking at extended temps