Texas Winter 2021-2022

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TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3781 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:21 am

That first wave hits me hard on the 6z Euro, I don't even need to worry about the 2nd wave. I'll happy take the 6-8" it gives me lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3782 Postby WinterMax » Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:33 am

TheProfessor wrote:That first wave hits me hard on the 6z Euro, I don't even need to worry about the 2nd wave. I'll happy take the 6-8" it gives me lol.


We get ignored here in Central Louisiana by this weather, the cold stays to our west, sort of like it did last February, but even less this time around. I feel like this was my last shot at winter precip. I hope you guys get slammed with snow. As for here, I will just prepare for a mid February torch, and.enjoy it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3783 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:35 am

Wow the Fox 4 WAPP for my area has trended colder.

Showing single digits one night, staying below freezing through basically Saturday (don't see getting to 36 on Friday with snow) and anywhere from 4-8 of snow expected (Taking the 3-5 + 1-3 forecasted Wednesday and Thursday)

That escalated quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3784 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:49 am

Fox 4 this morning said get the bread, milk and eggs and roads will be bad Thursday.

Guess the red button has been pushed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3785 Postby Snowman67 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:04 am

Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3786 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:06 am

Snowman67 wrote:Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.


If we end up losing power consider yourself lucky.

Having a 6 and 4 year old that will not be fun nor was it fun last year. We managed but I got sick one day from all the stress and just being cold. My house was 40F inside.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3787 Postby funster » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:09 am

Nuisance impacts must be like when melting snow falls on you from a tree or you step in a slushy puddle... 18% chance of this happening

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1487775604204204033


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3788 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:12 am

Snowman67 wrote:Trying not to throw in the towel yet, but not looking promising for us in SE Texas.


Yeah I’m pretty bummed out about it. Maybe the mesoscale models will come in colder. They usually do. So maybe there’s still a little hope.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3789 Postby bbowman7 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:14 am

Good morning! It sure is fun to wake up and come straight to the website to see what everyone is saying about the upcoming week.

Can someone tell me what the latest is for Tyler/Longview area? Ralph, I am waiting to hear from you! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3790 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:20 am

Haris wrote:OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected


Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3791 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:21 am

Now it’s just a matter of when the freezing transition will occur, that will gauge degree of impact.

Note: Euro can’t handle these air masses so probably wise to ignore its temp output

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3792 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:25 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected


Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?


The Euro did show that(of course the Euro has been struggling) but the GEFS mean has continued to increase and the foot has actually nudged into the far corner of OK it's getting closer to me :double: :double: :double: this is insane

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3793 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:26 am

funster wrote:Nuisance impacts must be like when melting snow falls on you from a tree or you step in a slushy puddle... 18% chance of this happening

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1487775604204204033



Haha, that first reply. Guess we can guage our winter storm severity if Ted Cruz books a flight to Cancun.

I'm sorry mods, just found humor in that since we use Wxman57 booking flights on the board. He was the original so we have that going for us. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3794 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:26 am

Overnight GFS does not paint a pretty picture for the DFW area. To me, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation there will be rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. By sunrise Thursday, the sleet will likely change to snow on the "back side". Could be an inch or two on top of a solid layer of ice. Don't plan on driving anywhere up there from Wednesday afternoon through the weekend. Consider yourself one of the fortunate few if you have power. Yeah, it's sad that SE TX will miss out on that. For fun, I plotted the 6Z GFS meteograms for DFW and Houston. Looks like the GFS has us below freezing for 18 hours from around 5pm Thursday to noon Friday. Look at DFW, though. All that ice on the ground will keep you in the deep freeze while Houston is up into the 50s by Sunday.

Have fun up there. If you don't have all the groceries and gas (for generators) and pipe insulation that you need now, then it'll be too late very soon.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS6ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS6ZJan30.JPG

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3795 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:30 am

Lots of pretty colors over the D-FW area on the freezing rain graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/06ZGFSZRa.JPG

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3796 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:37 am

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Haris wrote:OKC dry slot. Holy cow.

As models trend colder, dry air will be an issue up there. More snow for Dallas this run. As expected


Did you say that I'm going to get possibly dry slotted?


The Euro did show that(of course the Euro has been struggling) but the GEFS mean has continued to increase and the foot has actually nudged into the far corner of OK it's getting closer to me :double: :double: :double: this is insane

https://i.ibb.co/MCBdFdz/snod-conus-5.png

Yeah, 6z GEFS has a Mean 10:1 Ratio Snowfall of 4-7 inches for Tulsa

0z Canadian has over a foot of snow, mostly along I-44.

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WOWf3499310d3e61bbb.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3797 Postby gboudx » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:41 am

DFW NWS is sounding like wxman57 with the perceived ice threat. There’s much more to their discussion but didn’t want to post all of it. Most anyone who posts here knows how to find it. Time to start prepping. I hope ERCOT has their stuff in order.

Precip-Type Forecast:
Precip will begin as rain with both the temperatures aloft and on
the surface above freezing. As the cold air near/just above the
surface continues to funnel south, the warm nose (portion of
atmosphere above freezing) overhead is forecast to be around 3-5
kft thick with peak temperatures around 40-45 degrees, meaning the
precip will melt and become all liquid as it falls. Once the
surface temperatures fall below freezing, the liquid precip will
freeze on contact. Wind speeds around 20-25 mph will efficiently
expel heat from surfaces and allow ice to accumulate shortly after
the air temperature drops below freezing. As temperatures continue
to fall, the p-type will likely changeover to sleet as the liquid
water freezes before reaching the surface. This event is starting
to have the makings of accumulating sleet on top of a light
glazing of ice. As the cold air continues to move south, the warm
nose will erode and change the precip over to snow. For now, this
full changeover to snow is most likely over Western North Texas
early Thursday morning. The upper trough will then swing over the
region Thursday and bring a chance of snow to all of North Texas.
All precip should end Thursday evening. It`s still too far out to
provide a reliable ice, sleet, or snow accumulation forecast, but
we will likely start to provide one tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3798 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:44 am

bbowman7 wrote:Good morning! It sure is fun to wake up and come straight to the website to see what everyone is saying about the upcoming week.

Can someone tell me what the latest is for Tyler/Longview area? Ralph, I am waiting to hear from you! :D

My thoughts have not changed. Models verbatim aren't too bad here as they hold the freeze line back until early Thursday. That would still give us upwards of a quarter inch of freezing rain. Followed by light snow later in the day. If the freeze line ends up here before midnight Wed evening then impacts are much greater potentially. With over half an inch of ice before changing to sleet and snow on Thu.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3799 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:45 am

Ryan Maue on ICON model
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1487637287487819778




Joe Bastardi is concerned for an Ice Storm for Texas
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1487780609103699972


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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3800 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:50 am

Note that the GFS is by far the coldest of the models, with the highest freezing rain/sleet totals. Those two are connected. Euro doesn't even have Houston getting below freezing. Only mid 20s Thu-Fri in DFW on the 00Z Euro. ICON is warmer than the GFS, too. Arctic air won't even be coming down the Northern Plains until Tuesday. We'll have a better idea what will happen once we can "see" what we're dealing with.
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