Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3861 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:UKMET lost its marbles.


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3862 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:08 pm

Tammie wrote:
Ntxw wrote:UKMET lost its marbles.


Elaborate please....


It's cold, plenty of ice and snow. But it's been fairly inconsistent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3863 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:09 pm

I do think the theme of Feb 2011 storm/cold was a comparable system. With slightly further south trajectory than that event.

Select surface composition and Feb 1, 2011.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/satellite/
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3864 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:10 pm

The Ukie is probably overdoing the cold depth. Poor Prof in KS would only get an inch. But, pretty map!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3865 Postby Cerlin » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:I do think the theme of Feb 2011 storm/cold was a comparable system. With slightly further south trajectory than that event.

Select surface composition and Feb 1, 2011.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/satellite/

Thank you for sending that link. I’ve never seen that before and I fully plan on bookmarking that because that’s awesome.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3866 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:21 pm

Another insane GFS run for week 2 :double:

10 day temp anomalies
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Last edited by orangeblood on Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3867 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:24 pm

orangeblood wrote:Another insane GFS run for week 2 :double:


I see at least 4 additional winter wx threats for parts of Texas and Oklahoma on that run lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3868 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Another insane GFS run for week 2 :double:


I see at least 4 additional winter wx threats for parts of Texas and Oklahoma on that run lol


Benefits of keeping ridges on the coasts. Ensembles support it. We just haven't talked about because of the current storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3869 Postby Cerlin » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:26 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Another insane GFS run for week 2 :double:


I see at least 4 additional winter wx threats for parts of Texas and Oklahoma on that run lol

Was just about to comment on that. GFS just keeps reloading with shot after shot of arctic air and ample moisture. February 2015 anyone?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3870 Postby harp » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:29 pm

If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3871 Postby dhweather » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:30 pm

The 12Z GFS is going to get a lot of attention for the bitterly cold temperatures - Wednesday night we drop below freezing and stay at or below there until Monday. Low teens Friday morning, single digits Saturday morning, low teens Sunday morning. This has got some really bad potential for late next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3872 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:31 pm

harp wrote:If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!


Luckily, I brought my gumbo skills with me to Texas!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3873 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:31 pm

harp wrote:If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!



Oh my friend, I feel ya. Lets get our metroplexers to first cash in on the big storm, and then we will shift our attention to the coastline :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3874 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:34 pm

Also, some really nice rain totals over the next couple of days! Outside of SE Texas, everyone needs rain at this point.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3875 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:37 pm

Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/precip for D-FW & Houston. Lots of precip with surface temps below freezing. Big question is the timing of the change from freezing rain to sleet to snow. Could be a nasty ice storm with widespread power outages. In any case, don't plan on driving anywhere from Wed PM through the weekend. Believe me, you don't want to see this in south Louisiana or SE TX. Snow is fun, freezing rain is NOT fun. Looks like precip is ending when the temperature drops to 32F in Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3876 Postby harp » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:37 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
harp wrote:If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!


Luckily, I brought my gumbo skills with me to Texas!

Ha ha ha!!! Good for you!! Lol!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3877 Postby harp » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:39 pm

Haris wrote:
harp wrote:If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!



Oh my friend, I feel ya. Lets get our metroplexers to first cash in on the big storm, and then we will shift our attention to the coastline :wink:
Ok, Haris, you have a deal! ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3878 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:41 pm



Ha everyone wins :lol:

But it has been horrible
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3879 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:42 pm

12Z GFS freezing rain map. 1/4 to 1.25" of freezing rain in NE TX. Now keep in mind that there will likely be significant model changes for the next couple of days. Models may not agree much until Tuesday evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZRa.JPG

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3880 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/precip for D-FW & Houston. Lots of precip with surface temps below freezing. Big question is the timing of the change from freezing rain to sleet to snow. Could be a nasty ice storm with widespread power outages. In any case, don't plan on driving anywhere from Wed PM through the weekend. Believe me, you don't want to see this in south Louisiana or SE TX. Snow is fun, freezing rain is NOT fun. Looks like precip is ending when the temperature drops to 32F in Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG


I'm loving that tail end forecast for Houston, not bitter, but likely too steady a chill for you sir :D.Don't you just love our favorite month of Febuary?
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