Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/precip for D-FW & Houston. Lots of precip with surface temps below freezing. Big question is the timing of the change from freezing rain to sleet to snow. Could be a nasty ice storm with widespread power outages. In any case, don't plan on driving anywhere from Wed PM through the weekend. Believe me, you don't want to see this in south Louisiana or SE TX. Snow is fun, freezing rain is NOT fun. Looks like precip is ending when the temperature drops to 32F in Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

I'm loving that tail end forecast for Houston, not bitter, but likely too steady a chill for you sir .

Mid 40s and continuous rain for days sounds just wonderful! Can't wait to go biking in that. Meanwhile, it's above 60F and sunny now, time to bike over to Shake Shack for lunch.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is showing the same Winter Blast pattern through February, it's basically "Reload & Repeat"

[funster]

If you folks don’t send some of that to south Louisiana, you get no gumbo or crawfish on your next visit here!

Be happy to trade a bucket of sleet for some delicious gumbo

[txtwister78]

12Z GFS freezing rain map. 1/4 to 1.25" of freezing rain in NE TX. Now keep in mind that there will likely be significant model changes for the next couple of days. Models may not agree much until Tuesday evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZRa.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZRa.JPG

Yeah I think we need to see how the HI-Res handles this (both with freezing transition and precip type/amounts before going all in. I think by tomorrow evening we should have a much better handle statewide how this thing is going to unfold IMO. I think beyond that changes would be minor. No question signal is strong though across central & northern areas.

[DallasAg]

12Z GFS freezing rain map. 1/4 to 1.25" of freezing rain in NE TX. Now keep in mind that there will likely be significant model changes for the next couple of days. Models may not agree much until Tuesday evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZRa.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/TXZRa.JPG

That swath from Little Rock into SE Missouri - ouch! And no shortage of trees in that part of the world for the ice to accumulate either.

[gboudx]

I'm just trying to understand your post.

Our house is a new build and the main water line comes in under the slab and pops up inside an interior wall. All of the distribution lines are pex and stay in the core of the house. The only exterior line is where the spigot protrudes from the exterior wall with a frost free spout. But even then the supply to the spigot runs between the 1st and 2nd floor over a bedroom to the wall.

Is there any reason to shut off my main water? I have a generator to keep the core center of the house warm with space heaters where the main distribution lines are.

Wxman57 may be referring to construction with PVC water supply. We have PEX as well. Our lines run into the attic to supply the kitchen but all others run between the 2 floors. The kitchen lines run down an exterior wall, into the slab for the sink on the island. The lines in the exterior walls have froze in the past, before the Feb 21 event. We learned to keep cabinets open and that helped. During last years Feb event the hot water line froze despite the cabinets being open, and that was with the kitchen faucet dripping. But it got down to 1 so our efforts were overwhelmed by Mother Nature. But being PEX we have not had a pipe burst. I would recommend knowing where the main valve is, and being able to turn it off. But that’s good advice for any time of the year.

[wxman57]

I'm just trying to understand your post.

Our house is a new build and the main water line comes in under the slab and pops up inside an interior wall. All of the distribution lines are pex and stay in the core of the house. The only exterior line is where the spigot protrudes from the exterior wall with a frost free spout. But even then the supply to the spigot runs between the 1st and 2nd floor over a bedroom to the wall.

Is there any reason to shut off my main water? I have a generator to keep the core center of the house warm with space heaters where the main distribution lines are.

Wxman57 may be referring to construction with PVC water supply. We have PEX as well. Our lines run into the attic to supply the kitchen but all others run between the 2 floors. The kitchen lines run down an exterior wall, into the slab for the sink on the island. The lines in the exterior walls have froze in the past, before the Feb 21 event. We learned to keep cabinets open and that helped. During last years Feb event the hot water line froze despite the cabinets being open, and that was with the kitchen faucet dripping. But it got down to 1 so our efforts were overwhelmed by Mother Nature. But being PEX we have not had a pipe burst. I would recommend knowing where the main valve is, and being able to turn it off. But that’s good advice for any time of the year.

No, I'm talking about copper & galvanized pipe. PVC is not used for plumbing (water supply). My house was built in 1965 with galvanized piping. That was changed to copper after the 1989 big freeze when the pipes burst in the attic. We purchased the home in 1991. I don't have any experience with PEX & cold weather. I do know that a dripping pipe will freeze. Ever seen a frozen waterfall? The only safe way to prevent burst pipes (Cu/galvanized) is to shut off the water at the main and open all faucets to drain the pipes. Doesn't look like it'll be too bad down south here in Houston this time.

[Garnetcat5]

I have a Well house, it's already ready to be warmed with 2 Space Heaters (Used them during the extreme cold & snow of February 2021)

I do too but we lose power so much here now I couldn’t trust space heaters. Just shut off all our water and drained the pipes. We didn’t have any problems but life for 5 days without water isn’t fun. On the upside my family suddenly understood my demands for more water in our hurricane kits!

[Brent]

I was expecting them to start low like 4-6

[Iceresistance]

I have a Well house, it's already ready to be warmed with 2 Space Heaters (Used them during the extreme cold & snow of February 2021)

I do too but we lose power so much here now I couldn’t trust space heaters. Just shut off all our water and drained the pipes. We didn’t have any problems but life for 5 days without water isn’t fun. On the upside my family suddenly understood my demands for more water in our hurricane kits!

I never turned off the water, we were more worried about losing power.

The Space Heaters prevented the Well House from Freezing, it never froze since I've been here in Oklahoma. (My grandmother said that it got slushy at one point in the 90s)

[gpsnowman]

:eek:

I was expecting them to start low like 4-6

https://i.ibb.co/CPW7Ww5/1-DF58119-321-E-4-CB7-A5-EF-562163-B68-C9-E.png

Who knows, that could be "low".

[Brent]

:eek:

I was expecting them to start low like 4-6

https://i.ibb.co/CPW7Ww5/1-DF58119-321-E-4-CB7-A5-EF-562163-B68-C9-E.png

Who knows, that could be "low".

Does make me wonder. The ceiling is very high

[Haris]

Euro with a jump N

[Ntxw]

Euro curve ball. Deeper trough.

[Iceresistance]

:eek:

I was expecting them to start low like 4-6

https://i.ibb.co/CPW7Ww5/1-DF58119-321-E-4-CB7-A5-EF-562163-B68-C9-E.png

Who knows, that could be "low".

Does make me wonder. The ceiling is very high

*Gets dumped with 12-20 inches of snow*

I think the ceiling right now is up to 20 inches (Shown on 18z GFS Yesterday), but that remains to be seen

[gboudx]

I'm just trying to understand your post.

Our house is a new build and the main water line comes in under the slab and pops up inside an interior wall. All of the distribution lines are pex and stay in the core of the house. The only exterior line is where the spigot protrudes from the exterior wall with a frost free spout. But even then the supply to the spigot runs between the 1st and 2nd floor over a bedroom to the wall.

Is there any reason to shut off my main water? I have a generator to keep the core center of the house warm with space heaters where the main distribution lines are.

Wxman57 may be referring to construction with PVC water supply. We have PEX as well. Our lines run into the attic to supply the kitchen but all others run between the 2 floors. The kitchen lines run down an exterior wall, into the slab for the sink on the island. The lines in the exterior walls have froze in the past, before the Feb 21 event. We learned to keep cabinets open and that helped. During last years Feb event the hot water line froze despite the cabinets being open, and that was with the kitchen faucet dripping. But it got down to 1 so our efforts were overwhelmed by Mother Nature. But being PEX we have not had a pipe burst. I would recommend knowing where the main valve is, and being able to turn it off. But that’s good advice for any time of the year.

No, I'm talking about copper & galvanized pipe. PVC is not used for plumbing (water supply). My house was built in 1965 with galvanized piping. That was changed to copper after the 1989 big freeze when the pipes burst in the attic. We purchased the home in 1991. I don't have any experience with PEX & cold weather. I do know that a dripping pipe will freeze. Ever seen a frozen waterfall? The only safe way to prevent burst pipes (Cu/galvanized) is to shut off the water at the main and open all faucets to drain the pipes. Doesn't look like it'll be too bad down south here in Houston this time.

Gotcha. Pex is flexible and meant to expand. I don’t know when it became code. A lot of older homes have copper and lots burst last year up here.

We drip an interior faucet, but I think you’re referring to dripping an exterior faucet.

[HockeyTx82]

Euro curve ball. Deeper trough.

Meaning what for who?

[aggiecutter]

Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/precip for D-FW & Houston. Lots of precip with surface temps below freezing. Big question is the timing of the change from freezing rain to sleet to snow. Could be a nasty ice storm with widespread power outages. In any case, don't plan on driving anywhere from Wed PM through the weekend. Believe me, you don't want to see this in south Louisiana or SE TX. Snow is fun, freezing rain is NOT fun. Looks like precip is ending when the temperature drops to 32F in Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

I'm loving that tail end forecast for Houston, not bitter, but likely too steady a chill for you sir .

Mid 40s and continuous rain for days sounds just wonderful! Can't wait to go biking in that. Meanwhile, it's above 60F and sunny now, time to bike over to Shake Shack for lunch.

Yeah, that freezing rain is not fun:

[txtwister78]

Despite the Euro track record, that's why we wait folks before sounding the alarm bells too quickly.... I'd say that's the definition of a slider, curveball and screwball all into one if I've ever seen one. Still an outlier but can't be ignored either.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has 6-8 inches of 10:1 Ratio snowfall, especially from the 2nd wave.

I'm waiting from College of DuPage for the Kuchera Ratio snowfall on the Euro.