Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ntxw]

Euro curve ball. Deeper trough.

Meaning what for who?

500mb was deeper and then it amped and resists the cold from driving. QPF shrinks dryslot and then doesn't get to freezing until Thurs morning on it.

[Cerlin]

Yeah I’m not biting on the Euro just yet. GFS and the new King are staying consistent and the NAM so far seems to be just behind the GFS with the front.

[Brent]

The Euro kuchera has a foot here

Of course the Euro has been all over the place

[Ntxw]

Yeah I’m not biting on the Euro just yet. GFS and the new King are staying consistent and the NAM so far seems to be just behind the GFS with the front.

I know but you know it's going to bring the meltdown episodes we must have with every storm because it's the euro.

[Haris]

Bubba nailed it. Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

[txtwister78]

Bubba nailed it. Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

Yeah I think only if you're predicting "doomsday scenarios". Take the middle approach and throw out the other two extremes (nothing and the apocalypse).

[orangeblood]

Same Euro tricks, different year!! If it can’t figure out the frontal boundary location and subsequent frontogenisis it won’t have a clue. Euro one-off big changes only have credibility if you see it’s ENS back it up IMHO

[bubba hotep]

Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

[HockeyTx82]

Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

[Iceresistance]

Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

WPC is basically saying "Not so fast!"


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif

[Ntxw]

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

WPC is basically saying "Not so fast!"

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif

Coming from the WPC tells me the NWS WFOs will lag a bit and be a little more optimistic than yesterday.

[Quixotic]

In that timeframe where the global models struggle just before NAM, WRF and HRRR can pick it up.

[bubba hotep]

Here comes the emotional rollar coaster

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

Don't put words in my mouth, just posting what the model shows.

[Brent]

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

WPC is basically saying "Not so fast!"

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif

Coming from the WPC tells me the NWS WFOs will lag a bit and be a little more optimistic than yesterday.

I'm thinking Tulsa putting out a snow forecast is not gonna be the only office they probably are coordinating for this afternoon

[Ntxw]

In that timeframe where the global models struggle just before NAM, WRF and HRRR can pick it up.

I'd agree except it's only the Euro . Unless the other models suite follows it, another fail because it was lagging cold it'll go on second tier rank of weight for a lot of us given recent history. A lot on the line for it! And really it had only gotten on board for about 1 day's worth of run cycles at the surface.

[rwfromkansas]

I normally would be in at least a bit of a panic, but not this time since it has been inconsistent.

Trust me, I have seen enough of these things to go wrong that who knows. But, we tend to have these swings before they go back in line with the high-res models, so frankly I think everybody expected something like this to happen for a bit.

[orangeblood]

In that timeframe where the global models struggle just before NAM, WRF and HRRR can pick it up.

Yep, can think of at least a half-dozen times for big winter weather events over the years the Euro does this….just a really weird glitch in its processing I guess

[bubba hotep]

Just beautiful - DFW, The Falls, OKC & Tulsa

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS still deliver the cold but delay it enough to keep things manageable across the N and C TX regions (removes most of precip by the time the freezing line arrives). Not quite the same 500mb presentation as the operational but a noticeable jump north.

[HockeyTx82]

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro is a nonevent for most of Texas with the only winter wx being confined to far NW Texas and the Panhandle.

Winter Cancel.

See you in the Spring thread

Don't put words in my mouth, just posting what the model shows.

Hahah, just getting it out of the way