Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Texas Snow]

Lol in the time that I’ve been outside doing winter prep, y’all have added five pages and a winter canceled to this thread.

[Portastorm]

Euro ENS still deliver the cold but delay it enough to keep things manageable across the N and C TX regions (removes most of precip by the time the freezing line arrives). Not quite the same 500mb presentation as the operational but a noticeable jump north.

Something to keep in mind especially because it’s the ensemble mean. Yes the Euro has its biases like other models, but there’s a reason why it continually scores the highest of all models in the 5-day, 6-day skill range in North America.

[Brent]

We've had 2 TV mets here buy bread and milk today and a third just dug out his sled

Also Evan Andrews bought a generator

[Golf7270]

I would give the euro two more cycles and if still shows a nothing burger, probably time to move on. It is a impressive high pressure up north for sure though

[harp]

Folks, don’t lose your minds over one Euro run. Remember last year.

[bubba hotep]

Euro ENS still deliver the cold but delay it enough to keep things manageable across the N and C TX regions (removes most of precip by the time the freezing line arrives). Not quite the same 500mb presentation as the operational but a noticeable jump north.

Something to keep in mind especially because it’s the ensemble mean. Yes the Euro has its biases like other models, but there’s a reason why it continually scores the highest of all models in the 5-day, 6-day skill range in North America.

Yes, discount the Euro at your own peril. However, those scores are based on 500mb pattern and, while it does score well there, it often is worse than the GFS with surface outputs such as temp and precipitation placement.

[Haris]

Folks, don’t lose your minds over one Euro run. Remember last year.

Right, euro had 80s for Austin 4 days out and it was in the 40s. Major major biases on that model. I am more or less concerned with the low track. It will be frigid regardless.

[Snowman67]

Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS temps/precip for D-FW & Houston. Lots of precip with surface temps below freezing. Big question is the timing of the change from freezing rain to sleet to snow. Could be a nasty ice storm with widespread power outages. In any case, don't plan on driving anywhere from Wed PM through the weekend. Believe me, you don't want to see this in south Louisiana or SE TX. Snow is fun, freezing rain is NOT fun. Looks like precip is ending when the temperature drops to 32F in Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/DFWGFS12ZJan30.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS12ZJan30.JPG

I'm loving that tail end forecast for Houston, not bitter, but likely too steady a chill for you sir .

Mid 40s and continuous rain for days sounds just wonderful! Can't wait to go biking in that. Meanwhile, it's above 60F and sunny now, time to bike over to Shake Shack for lunch.

Would sir Heat Miser rather have a very cold rain or sleet if he had to choose? Can’t imagine anyone choosing the cold rain.

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS still deliver the cold but delay it enough to keep things manageable across the N and C TX regions (removes most of precip by the time the freezing line arrives). Not quite the same 500mb presentation as the operational but a noticeable jump north.

Something to keep in mind especially because it’s the ensemble mean. Yes the Euro has its biases like other models, but there’s a reason why it continually scores the highest of all models in the 5-day, 6-day skill range in North America.

+1...and it definitely won the "battle" with the GFS over the weekend with the NE winter storm/blizzard. Some different variables to consider down here no question, but tough to ignore, nonetheless.

[Texas Snow]

Euro ENS still deliver the cold but delay it enough to keep things manageable across the N and C TX regions (removes most of precip by the time the freezing line arrives). Not quite the same 500mb presentation as the operational but a noticeable jump north.

Something to keep in mind especially because it’s the ensemble mean. Yes the Euro has its biases like other models, but there’s a reason why it continually scores the highest of all models in the 5-day, 6-day skill range in North America.

Of course we are in the 3-4 day range now...

[txtwister78]

Folks, don’t lose your minds over one Euro run. Remember last year.

I don't think anyone is losing their minds over it quite honestly (definitely shouldn't), but I think you have to consider it is all. Doesn't mean it's going to verify 100% as the overall event unfolds, but I think if you take the extreme solution (GFS) and the warm bias/nonevent solution (Euro) and throw those out, you're probably going to get a much more reliable forecast/approach to this.

[Portastorm]

Something else to keep in mind. I just saw a report from a trusted local meteorologist who says there were no upper air soundings from Mexico fed into any of the 12z models. That certainly will have an impact.

[txtwister78]

Something else to keep in mind. I just saw a report from a trusted local meteorologist who says there were no upper air soundings from Mexico fed into any of the 12z models. That certainly will have an impact.

Wow that's an interesting bit of info. 0z runs just became a more interesting.

[harp]

Folks, don’t lose your minds over one Euro run. Remember last year.

I don't think anyone is losing their minds over it quite honestly (definitely shouldn't), but I think you have to consider it is all. Doesn't mean it's going to verify 100% as the overall event unfolds, but I think if you take the extreme solution (GFS) and the warm bias/nonevent solution (Euro) and throw those out, you're probably going to get a much more reliable forecast/approach to this.

. Perhaps it was a poor choice of words on my part.

[EnnisTx]

TXDOT is out today with the salt brine. Could this be a jinxing by our State boys? Maybe, mabey not, but I passed two full size tanker trucks on my way back from the Abilene area on 20 between Ranger Hill and Aledo.

[Brent]

TXDOT is out today with the salt brine. Could this be a jinxing by our State boys? Maybe, mabey not, but I passed two full size tanker trucks on my way back from the Abilene area on 20 between Ranger Hill and Aledo.

Storm cancel for sure now

[Iceresistance]

SREF is starting to come into range for the Storm system.

[bubba hotep]

Not to be taken seriously, but the 12z GFS is trying to build glaciers!

[Brent]

Not to be taken seriously, but the 12z GFS is trying to build glaciers!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022013012/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

I'll give this pattern one thing... It's had some amazing clown maps

[Iceresistance]

Now we're back in the waiting game for the 18z runs (Including the NAM)

Also, WSSI has Minor to Moderate Impacts for the system on Day 4 for DFW & OKC.